Hendy's AFL Round 16

Here's hoping the run continues.

A couple of games stand out this round... first one is Friday night.

LAST FIVE TIMES THEY MET
R9, 2012, Collingwood 10.15 (75) d Adelaide 6.13 (49) at AAMI Stadium
R9, 2011, Collingwood 20.15 (135) d Adelaide 14.8 (92) at Etihad Stadium
R21, 2010, Collingwood 6.18 (54) d Adelaide 7.9 (51) at the MCG
1SF, 2009, Collingwood 12.11 (83) d Adelaide 11.12 (78) at the MCG
R19, 2009, Collingwood 13.11 (89) d Adelaide 9.14 (68) at AAMI Stadium

The last three times Collingwood and Adelaide have met at the MCG they have gone to the wire, decided by four, five and three points... but don't be fooled.

LAST TIME AT THE MCG
Last game the two teams met at MCG, Leigh Brown kicked 2 goals and Adelaide had the Tippett / Walker combo... Adelaide were winning most of the game.

 

Adelaide's recent record at the MCG
2013
R5 Lost to Carlton 30 points
R12 Lost to Richmond 38 points

2012
R3 Lost to Hawthorn 56 points
R22 Won vs Melb 69 points

 

Adelaide have a horrible run until R21 against the doggies. They won't make the finals while the Pies need to start showing some form. They have good players coming back like Beams. Competition for spots is starting and the team will rally to support Harry O.

My only concern is the weather. I expect the rain to be there on Saturday... and maybe a little during the day on Friday. Fingers crossed it isn't wet because that does even it a little.

Going the Pies -28.5

I can't find a case for the Crows to win. I had expected the line to be in the low 40s. Heath will cover Porps. Lynch won't get possessions in the 50... the goals will come from their mids. Danger might have to play forward... meanwhile Cloke will get Rutten, Reid will take Talia and the smalls should run a merry dance.

I like the Cats and Hawks but need to check the weather... Freo should also take the game but it will be low scoring and 10 points may still come in handy. The Derby is always a good, hard fight.

 

 

Was thinking more about the derby... I would take the 10 points. It will be wet and McPharlin is one of the most important players for any team. I don't think I'll play the game.

Thinking more about GC and NM also. The ins for the Saints could make that game closer but Carlton not having two big guys means the game will be played through the midfield. The only total on the board I see value in is this one to go over. 

Pies do this.

What a shocking 1st Qtr... should get better.

Taking Magpies 2H  -17.5

SHOULD 

I'm still not happy with the Pies not covering.
Pies -28.5
Pies 2H -17.5

Pity I loaded up on the game.


2 stand out today.

I did want to pick the Hawks and Cats to cover but bad weather meant that I didn't. Hawks covered easily and Cats SHOULD but it's a big margin and the care factor late on a wet ground in the 4th is low.

Gold Coast +26.5
In Cairns... neutral ground. GC playing well and Tigers a shocker against the Roos. 26 is too many points. I don't see the Tigers scoring over 100... they will get super tired at the end of the game. Ablett having a week off should have a blinder.

Saints Blues Total Over 184.5
It's at the Dome... Saints have Roo and the dodgy little fella back. They will put up a good score and they bleed points. Blues have gone small so will get points from their runners.

Small one depends on the coin toss for GC / Tigers.

GL 1Q ML @ $2.80

GL 1Q ML @ $2.80

GC Tigers 2H Under ( +84.5) @ 1.88

(GC instead of GL above  )

GC Tigers 2H Under ( +84.5) @ 1.88
Gold Coast +26.5

Pending

Saints Blues Total Over 184.5

Could I get your analysis of the WB v Essendon game tomorrow. Considering going big on the -39.5 start...

Saints Blues Total Over 184.5

Half a point... No score for 10 mins in the 2nd quarter and no score in the last 4m 50s.

Not happy.
Get done by 1.5 points (posted but I got a point lower also) and then by 0.5 points on this.

No way would I put money on the doggies. I expected the line to be mid 40s but I think it's lower due to Jobe's holiday. Taking the Bombers is the smart pick. I think it's probably the best pick for tomorrow.

The total is about right also... but I would lean to the over (but I expect the doggies to start slow and then it to open up a bit in the second half).