Cycling: Tour of Qatar

Okay,

The TDU was a flop but that was expected the first race of the season.

Overall Match-Ups

4.5 units Farrar over Bennati @ $1.54
1.5 units Wiggins over Hoste @ $2.25 - Basically, this will be decided on the TTT. Sky are a better TTT team than Lotto and Hoste really shouldn't figure in the sprints.

Overall Win

1.5 units on Tom Boonen @ $2.75
.5 units on Boasson-Hagen @ $5

Stage 1 Matchups

3.5 units Columbia-HTC over Omega-Pharma Lotto @ $2
2.5 units Saxo Bank over Liquigas @ $1.72

BMC over Vaconsolleil @ $2.20 could be a good matchup too.

Actually, I made a mistake. That overall play is 3.5 units on Farrar, not 4.5.

Here's hoping Hoste and Bennati don't get into a breakaway and get time on everyone.

I honestly can't believe that Columbia over Pharma Lotto matchup. Why is Columbia @ $2

Technical time trial course over a short distance helps their guys more than Lotto.

Bernhard Eisel, Lars Yitting Bak, Gert Dockx, Jan Ghyselink, Matthew Goss, Patrick Gretsch, Adam Hansen, Martin Velits - most of those guys can time trial and half of them are the punchy riders that are needed on a course like this.

Philippe Gilbert, Wilfried Cretskens, Kenny De Haes, Michiel Elijzen, Leif Hoste, Sebastian Lang, Staf Scheirlincx, Greg Van Avermaet don't have anything on those Columbia boys.

You know what?

2.5 more unis on Columbia @ $2

I'm quite happy to lose at this price if I lost.

]

6 units Columbia-HTC over Omega-Pharma Lotto @ $2 - WIN Columbia 09:59 v Lotto 10:08
2.5 units Saxo Bank over Liquigas @ $1.72 - WIN Saxo 09:54 v Liquigas 10:02

1 unit BMC over Vaconsolleil @ $2.20- WIN 10:02 v 10:03 haha

I took that BMC bet, it's in my blog I posted in the TDU thread.

https://cyclingexpert.blogspot.com/

+9 units

Nice comeback from the TDU!!!!!!!!!!

Advantage Wiggins over Hoste and Farrar over Bennati in my head to head overall bets. Now hopefully, Wiggins and Farrar stay ahead when the cross winds wreck havoc in the race this week.

Advantage Boasson-Hagen for the win too. If he wins a few sprints or comes top 3 in a few, he's going to be hard to beat.

I'll let you all know where I stand at the year to date too.

At the moment I'm still in the loss bracket, but not by much.

Stage 2

5 units Boasson-Hagen over Eisel @ $1.54
1 unit Ciolek over Napolitano @ $2.10

Good luck

I didn't realize there was in-play betting. Good. It means that tomorrow I can wait as both these bets could lose.

Anyway, 35km to go, 2 in the lead, they have over 7 minutes on a chase group of 13.

Therefore, I think they might stay out the front.

2 unit Gert Steurs @ $8
2 unit Wouter Mol @ $8

No gain in the margin over the last 15km. Why the hell are they that long?

Both of those riders have moved out to 10 now. Yes, I know, 2 in the lead on a windy day is going to be hard to hold off, but this chase group looks like it's going to crack.

Matchups

.5 unit Chicci over Napolitano @ $2.50
.5 unit Boonen over Farrar @ $2.25

Bwahahaha Nearly 20km to go, they have just under 6 minutes. Will they hold on?

If they don't, it's a good 4 units to lose. If they do, then it was worth taking.

They are still both at 8 - 1.

They only gained 20 seconds in the last 2km.

5:30. Now they have woken up to themselves and put them at $2.50, bet365.

I envisage these two riders will cross the line about a minute or two in front of the small chase group.

In the overall, I don't think Bennati is in the chase group, so Farrar still have a good advantage over him.

Stage 3 tomorrow, win or lose these bets I have placed on today, I'm going to go in play because the winds appear to be very strong and it's going to be hard to work out what will happen.

Fuck me blind, that easy.

Strange thing was, as soon as I backed them for 8-1, they moved to 10-1 and then back to 8-1 haha.

fuck ... missed this

BOL for the rest of the tour

Bad luck mate, it was a gimme.

Follow it with me tomorrow.

In the overalls, Farrar has a 11 minute advantage over Bennati
Wiggins has a 33 second lead over Hoste.

Both should win.

5 units Boasson-Hagen over Eisel @ $1.54 - lost, should have realized, hagen sucks in the wind.
1 unit Ciolek over Napolitano @ $2.10 - lost
.5 unit Chicci over Napolitano @ $2.50 - lost
.5 unit Boonen over Farrar @ $2.25 - win
2 unit Gert Steurs @ $8 - win
2 unit Wouter Mol @ $8 - lost

+4.125 units for the stage.

Come the end of Qatar, if things keep going like this, I'm going to be back in the green. Pity, I didn't put more on. I was going to, but damn, that was easy.

Stage 3, I'm just going to bet in-play. It will be near impossible to work it out.

+6.125 for the stage.

I screwed up in those calculations. It's too late.

Back tomorrow. Eli, make sure you're awake for in-play betting.

With 40km to go, the lead was 10, with 30 to go, it was about 9. and they were still 8 dollars. When there was just over 20km to go, and the lead was around 6, they went into 2.50, then the market was off the board not long after.

I honestly do not know what the books were thinking tonight.

This is precisely why I think there is an advantage in following cycling events with live betting. Of course, it's not gonna be like this every time but if you can pick your spots like you just did, it's gonna pay off in the long term. Too early for me to follow live but will check out the next couple of stages.

Yep. I agree.

As you say, It's not going to happen all the time, but you can get an idea on what happens.

I mean - anything can change. Cross winds, fall from the peloton etc.

Tonight I would consider Mol over Steurs - basically, Mol has the yellow jersey and should be up the front of the peloton.

But, I'm not going to play any matchups until I see the situation on the road.

The last hour of the race is on Australian tv. :(

I need to get foxtel, there is going to be a massive amount of cycling in the coming months that should be shown.

35km to go, the break have a 2 minute advantage, bunch sprint is in order I would suspect.

Therefore, if I play anything, I'll wait for another 10km.