This is going to be close. Very close between Houvenaghel and Shanks. Shanks is the 2009 World Champion and Houvenaghel has been a star in the pursuit for years.
Wendy this year finished second in the World's with Shanks finishing fourth. I was originally going to sit this one out as it was too close to call but decided to back her after I read that she clocked 3:30 in the Nationals before the Games. That tells me her form is rock solid.
Women's 3000m IP
12 units Houvenaghel @ $1.90 (Sportingbet)
This is going to be close. Very close between Houvenaghel and Shanks. Shanks is the 2009 World Champion and Houvenaghel has been a star in the pursuit for years.
Wendy this year finished second in the World's with Shanks finishing fourth. I was originally going to sit this one out as it was too close to call but decided to back her after I read that she clocked 3:30 in the Nationals before the Games. That tells me her form is rock solid.
This is going to be close. Very close between Houvenaghel and Shanks. Shanks is the 2009 World Champion and Houvenaghel has been a star in the pursuit for years.
Wendy this year finished second in the World's with Shanks finishing fourth. I was originally going to sit this one out as it was too close to call but decided to back her after I read that she clocked 3:30 in the Nationals before the Games. That tells me her form is rock solid.
Women's 3000m IP
12 units Houvenaghel @ $1.90 (Sportingbet)
This is going to be close. Very close between Houvenaghel and Shanks. Shanks is the 2009 World Champion and Houvenaghel has been a star in the pursuit for years.
Wendy this year finished second in the World's with Shanks finishing fourth. I was originally going to sit this one out as it was too close to call but decided to back her after I read that she clocked 3:30 in the Nationals before the Games. That tells me her form is rock solid.
One of the last few big races of the Calendar. This race is a mix of breakaway/sprinter. There was an 83 rider sprint a few years ago and Gilbert won out of a four man sprint, holding the peloton by one second so it could go anywhere.
Winner:
.2 units Ignatiev @ $201 1 unit McEwen @ $29 .3 unit Voeckler @ $60 (Unibet)
If someone breaks away to win, it will be Ignatiev who has had a quiet year.
H2H
13 units Robbie McEwen over Michael Van Staeyen @ $1.72 (Sportingbet)
Robbie McEwen is in terrific form. He attacked on a 9% rise a few weeks ago and is Katusha's best chance for a win. I would say he's their leader instead of Pozzato.
6 units Romain Feillu over Grega Bole @ $1.87 (Sportingbet)
Feillu is in great shape. He came top three the other day and a race before that also had a high placing. This is not really a finish that would suit Bole.
6 units Greg Van Avermaet over Peter Sagan @ $1.50 (Sportingbet)
I'm convinced Sagan is feeling the pinch of a long long debut season. Van Avermaet is in form.
6 units Robbie McEwen over Wouter Weylandt @ $1.65 (Unibet)
See above.
Paris-Tours
One of the last few big races of the Calendar. This race is a mix of breakaway/sprinter. There was an 83 rider sprint a few years ago and Gilbert won out of a four man sprint, holding the peloton by one second so it could go anywhere.
Winner:
.2 units Ignatiev @ $201 1 unit McEwen @ $29 .3 unit Voeckler @ $60 (Unibet)
If someone breaks away to win, it will be Ignatiev who has had a quiet year.
H2H
13 units Robbie McEwen over Michael Van Staeyen @ $1.72 (Sportingbet)
Robbie McEwen is in terrific form. He attacked on a 9% rise a few weeks ago and is Katusha's best chance for a win. I would say he's their leader instead of Pozzato.
6 units Romain Feillu over Grega Bole @ $1.87 (Sportingbet)
Feillu is in great shape. He came top three the other day and a race before that also had a high placing. This is not really a finish that would suit Bole.
6 units Greg Van Avermaet over Peter Sagan @ $1.50 (Sportingbet)
I'm convinced Sagan is feeling the pinch of a long long debut season. Van Avermaet is in form.
6 units Robbie McEwen over Wouter Weylandt @ $1.65 (Unibet)
Davis and Sutton also in the market and no one else.
I understand this is probably a loss of 3 units, but it's worth the punt.
Cavendish has grade riders around him to set it up. Australia have a world class team. There is no way that Davis or Sutton will want to sprint against Cav because they know they can't beat him. Australia will rip it up tonight in the hope of putting Cav in difficulty without any team-mates.
Not to mention there are other riders like David Millar and Jack Bauer.
3 units Any other rider @ $7.50
The TAB have gone with an insane market here.
Cavendish @ $1.40
Davis and Sutton also in the market and no one else.
I understand this is probably a loss of 3 units, but it's worth the punt.
Cavendish has grade riders around him to set it up. Australia have a world class team. There is no way that Davis or Sutton will want to sprint against Cav because they know they can't beat him. Australia will rip it up tonight in the hope of putting Cav in difficulty without any team-mates.
Not to mention there are other riders like David Millar and Jack Bauer.
With how the Australian cyclists have gone these games, I'm not fading them. Chances of them winning a small, but Millar is too short to back even though he should probably win with ease. Stranger things have happened.
Women's Time Trial
15 units Emma Pooley @ $1.85 (TAB)
World time trial champion. Enough said.
Men's Time Trial
2 units Durbridge @ $7.50
1 unit Dennis @ $19
With how the Australian cyclists have gone these games, I'm not fading them. Chances of them winning a small, but Millar is too short to back even though he should probably win with ease. Stranger things have happened.
Last major race of the season, the Giro di Lombardia.
4 units Gilbert to win @ $4.25 (Sportingbet)
Gilbert is the defending champion and is the man in form. He won another race yesterday, and he won the same race last year. Last year he won Paris-Tours, Giro del Piemonte (last night) and Giro di Lombardia. This time last year, he gave me a lot of money. He is the favourite and the odds of 4.25 are too long. He should be more like $3.
7 units Richie Porte over Janez Brajkovic @ $1.87 (Sportingbet)
Richie Porte had to miss the Commonwealth Games because Saxo-Bank wanted him to race this race. Obviously, he is their leader and he will ride like he is. I expect a high performance from Porte. Brajkovic isn't suited to these types of races whereas Porte is.
12 units Daniel Martin over Jakob Fuglsang @ $1.45 (Sportingbet)
Daniel Martin has been preparing for this race. This is a race he wants to win. Will he win it? Who knows. Will he beat Fuglsang who has said that he is fatigued and is not the leader of Saxo? He should do. Martin is the leader of Garmin and Fuglsang is nowhere near the leader of Saxo. This bet should be straight forward. Martin will draw confidence from his win in Poland.
7 units Cadel Evans over Vincenzo Nibali @ $1.65 (Sportingbet)
Cadel Evans is BMC's co leader with Mauro Santambrogio. This finish suits Evans. Nibali on the otherhand, I can't see him winning. This type of race doesn't suit him.
5 units Matti Breschel over Oscar Freire x Philippe Gilbert over Filippo Pozzato @ $2.09 (Sportingbet)
Breschel is co-leader with Porte. He came second in the World's, third yesterday and is in good form. Gilbert should be too strong for Pozzato here.
About time I suffered a hit there.
Last major race of the season, the Giro di Lombardia.
4 units Gilbert to win @ $4.25 (Sportingbet)
Gilbert is the defending champion and is the man in form. He won another race yesterday, and he won the same race last year. Last year he won Paris-Tours, Giro del Piemonte (last night) and Giro di Lombardia. This time last year, he gave me a lot of money. He is the favourite and the odds of 4.25 are too long. He should be more like $3.
7 units Richie Porte over Janez Brajkovic @ $1.87 (Sportingbet)
Richie Porte had to miss the Commonwealth Games because Saxo-Bank wanted him to race this race. Obviously, he is their leader and he will ride like he is. I expect a high performance from Porte. Brajkovic isn't suited to these types of races whereas Porte is.
12 units Daniel Martin over Jakob Fuglsang @ $1.45 (Sportingbet)
Daniel Martin has been preparing for this race. This is a race he wants to win. Will he win it? Who knows. Will he beat Fuglsang who has said that he is fatigued and is not the leader of Saxo? He should do. Martin is the leader of Garmin and Fuglsang is nowhere near the leader of Saxo. This bet should be straight forward. Martin will draw confidence from his win in Poland.
7 units Cadel Evans over Vincenzo Nibali @ $1.65 (Sportingbet)
Cadel Evans is BMC's co leader with Mauro Santambrogio. This finish suits Evans. Nibali on the otherhand, I can't see him winning. This type of race doesn't suit him.
5 units Matti Breschel over Oscar Freire x Philippe Gilbert over Filippo Pozzato @ $2.09 (Sportingbet)
Breschel is co-leader with Porte. He came second in the World's, third yesterday and is in good form. Gilbert should be too strong for Pozzato here.
8 units Alexandre Kolobnev over Michele Scarponi @ $1.53 (Sportingbet)
Kolobnev will be the leader of Katusha. Joaquin Rodriguez will ride in support of him. Scarponi will be riding for Leonardo Bertagnolli. Scarponi is good in tours, but not one day races like this.
15 units Janez Brajkovic over Peter Sagan @ $1.58 (Sportingbet)
Sagan is questionable over these distances. He will also be burntout from a long debut season. Brajkovic, if on song, will finish highish here. Sagan won't finish.
4 units Chris Horner over Joaquin Rodriguez @ $2.08 (Sportingbet)
Joaquin Rodriguez has had a long, tiring season. He's only racing this race because he's the number one ranked rider in the world and will finish the season as leader of the UCI standings as the number one ranked rider. He will want to see Kolobnev win this.
Horner will be DopeShack's leader with Brajkovic. Horner is in good form and will cherish a race like this one. It's tailormade to him.
4 units Patrick Sinkewitz over Paul Martens @ $1.58
Martens is looking towards a race tomorrow. Sinkewitz, after serving a two year doping suspension is looking good. He's in great form. He could have returned to the protour next year with team Movistar (Caisse d'Epargne), but decided not to as he wanted to honour his contract at ISD.
He is in good form. Was in the select group in the race on Thursday. I see him making the select group this time. He'll show himself by attacking at one point.
8 units Alexandre Kolobnev over Michele Scarponi @ $1.53 (Sportingbet)
Kolobnev will be the leader of Katusha. Joaquin Rodriguez will ride in support of him. Scarponi will be riding for Leonardo Bertagnolli. Scarponi is good in tours, but not one day races like this.
15 units Janez Brajkovic over Peter Sagan @ $1.58 (Sportingbet)
Sagan is questionable over these distances. He will also be burntout from a long debut season. Brajkovic, if on song, will finish highish here. Sagan won't finish.
4 units Chris Horner over Joaquin Rodriguez @ $2.08 (Sportingbet)
Joaquin Rodriguez has had a long, tiring season. He's only racing this race because he's the number one ranked rider in the world and will finish the season as leader of the UCI standings as the number one ranked rider. He will want to see Kolobnev win this.
Horner will be DopeShack's leader with Brajkovic. Horner is in good form and will cherish a race like this one. It's tailormade to him.
4 units Patrick Sinkewitz over Paul Martens @ $1.58
Martens is looking towards a race tomorrow. Sinkewitz, after serving a two year doping suspension is looking good. He's in great form. He could have returned to the protour next year with team Movistar (Caisse d'Epargne), but decided not to as he wanted to honour his contract at ISD.
He is in good form. Was in the select group in the race on Thursday. I see him making the select group this time. He'll show himself by attacking at one point.
15 units Daniel Martin over Jakob Fuglsang @ $1.45 10 units Cadel Evans over Vincenzo Nibali @ $1.65
8 units Alexandre Kolobnev over Michele Scarponi @ $1.53
7 units Richie Porte over Janez Brajkovic @ $1.87 5 units Matti Breschel over Oscar Freire x Philippe Gilbert over Filippo Pozzato @ $2.09
4 units Chris Horner over Joaquin Rodriguez @ $2.08
4 units Patrick Sinkewitz over Paul Martens @ $1.58
Winner
4 units Gilbert to win @ $4.25
.3 units Sinkewitz @ $51 .3 units Gasparotto @ $51
I've upped the stake to 15 on Martin over Fuglsang. You don't miss the world championships unless you're confident you're going to win this race. I'd take him over Fuglsang at this price.
H2H
15 units Janez Brajkovic over Peter Sagan @ $1.58
15 units Daniel Martin over Jakob Fuglsang @ $1.45 10 units Cadel Evans over Vincenzo Nibali @ $1.65
8 units Alexandre Kolobnev over Michele Scarponi @ $1.53
7 units Richie Porte over Janez Brajkovic @ $1.87 5 units Matti Breschel over Oscar Freire x Philippe Gilbert over Filippo Pozzato @ $2.09
4 units Chris Horner over Joaquin Rodriguez @ $2.08
4 units Patrick Sinkewitz over Paul Martens @ $1.58
Winner
4 units Gilbert to win @ $4.25
.3 units Sinkewitz @ $51 .3 units Gasparotto @ $51
I've upped the stake to 15 on Martin over Fuglsang. You don't miss the world championships unless you're confident you're going to win this race. I'd take him over Fuglsang at this price.
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