Posted:
#1
It's here again. The Milan-SanRemo.
Last year Cavendish won at odds of 14-1 and yes, I backed him. This year, he is 10-1 because he is horribly out of form and behind schedule in training. They have him peaking for the Tour de France and the World's so the chances of Cavendish winning and featuring up there are very slim.
So let's have a look at the market.
Andre Greipel - $6
So with Cavendish failing to produce results, Greipel is a favourite? He's yet to proven he can win over 200km. He is probably the second best sprinter in the world behind Cavendish, but the Columbia lead out train this year is weakened compared to last year. I can't see Greipel coming top 3, but you never know.
Tom Boonen - $7
Coke head is on a high. He has had a handful of wins so far this year and claimed his first win on Italian soil last week in Stage 2 of Tirreno-Adriatico. He's declared his ambitions to win Flanders again and make it another win in Paris-Roubaix but he has also mentioned the Italian monument as a race he would like to win. He is in excellent form at the moment and cannot be discounted.
Mark Cavendish - $10
So the Manx Missile has gone out from a $3.50 favourite a month ago to a $10 chance. Despite him being out of form, if he creeps out further it's tempting to have a nibble. That's what the books want. For you to have a nibble and give them money. Everyone knows I'm a huge fan of Cavendish and have been before he turned professional. If his odds do go out further, I will consider backing him as a small stake.
Edvald Boasson-Hagen - $12
EBH is class. No doubt about it. This guy is a good outsider to win the Green Jersey at the TDF this year. He can climb, he can sprint, he is a major talent. Two years ago I said that Cavendish could probably win about 5 - 6 Green Jersey's. Well this guy is his major threat over the coming years. He is a quality rider and is good value to get Sky another classics victory following Flecha's win two weekends ago in a semi classic, Omloop. Don't discount this guy. He's a very strong chance to win this.
Philippe Gilbert - $12
Watching over the last few weeks you get a sense that Gilbert is close to producing a win. He has declared that he wouldn't mind winning this race, but he also has other ambitions. For him to win, he needs to get away on the Poggio and he needs to bring Cancellara and Boasson-Hagen with him. He won't be able to do a solo break. No one will be able to do a solo break. Not with strong teams like Rabobank, Liquigas and Quick-Step aiming for wins. Throw in Garmin, Columbia and Lampre for Pettachi and you have a 98% chance of a sprint. Won't be his year.
Oscar Freire - $12
Freire is in excellent form. He has a couple wins next to his name already, 3 in fact. He hasn't shown much in Tirreno-Adriatico, but if he does go well in the sprinters stage tomorrow, he is a good chance of backing it up on Saturday here. Rabobank have a strong team for him and he is a very strong chance here. Definately over the odds.
Heinrich Haussler - $15
A few weeks ago, I was actually eyeing Haussler for this race. He was the pick of the peloton this time last year even though he was unable to break through for a win. He is injured and his major goal is going one better in Flanders. I don't think he will race here. If he does, it will be to get some good form for Flanders. However, in Omloop a few weeks ago, he had the same injury and rode exceptionally well.
Alessandro Petacchi - $15
This guy has hit form at the right time. He's a huge danger here and he has had some good performances this year thus far. If he was to win any big race this year, MSR would be the one.
Filippo Pozzato - $17
The Italian has had mixed form so far this year. In actual fact, he hasn't impressed me at all. Don't touch.
Peter Sagan - $20
For starters, he's only listed because he was the talk of Paris-Nice last week winning two stages as a neo-pro. Liquigas are riding for Bennati. Don't waste your money backing him. Hell, he isn't even named on their start list yet.
Daniele Bennati - $20
This is more like it. Bennati is most likely going to be my pick Each-way. He is generous odds and he is in form. Liquigas were bloody strong last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, dominating the train in the closing kilometres like Columbia do. They have screwed up a few finishes but they are a dominate force. Bennati should be single figures, or even around $12. Not $20. If Liquigas do get their train right, he wins this.
Fabian Cancellara - $20
Cancellara has expressed his intentions on winning Flanders. He won't win here unless a break gets away but as mentioned previously, with so many sprinters teams strong and determined to deliver their men to the line, his chances are slim.
Thor Hushovd - $25
He's easing into his season. I highly doubt he will win here. He may feature in the top three, but Cervelo haven't got their train working.
Tyler Farrar - $28
The American is over the odds. He has a strong team and he's in reasonable form. He has no trouble getting over the Poggio. He can feature and will. They say he's feeling great and if his team mates didn't drop off in the lowsy conditions in TA, he would have probably had a couple of wins.
Allan Davis, Alessandro Ballan, Luis Leon Sanchez - $45
No chance.
Greg Henderson - $55
He's won a couple times this year and he should have no troubles getting over the Poggio the way he has climbed this year. Won a brilliant stage in PN last week in crap conditions. Could feature.
Gerald Ciolek - $55
No chance.
Lorenzetto, Breschel, Paolini, Loddo, Rodriguez
The first four cannot be discounted, particularly Paolini, but don't hold your breath. They won't feature. Rodriguez will be riding for McEwen.
Robbie McEwen - $65
Robbie has displayed some excellent form this year and has shown he can climb well, something he hasn't done in the past. He's not known as a climber but he is in excellent form at the moment. An outside chance. His odds should be more around $40.
Sylvain Chavanel, Sebastien Chavanel, Flecha, Avermaet - won't feature. Napolitano hasn't shown anything this year like he has other years.
I think the winner will come from Bennati, Freire, Farrar and Boonen. I'm leaning Bennati.
Last year Cavendish won at odds of 14-1 and yes, I backed him. This year, he is 10-1 because he is horribly out of form and behind schedule in training. They have him peaking for the Tour de France and the World's so the chances of Cavendish winning and featuring up there are very slim.
So let's have a look at the market.
Andre Greipel - $6
So with Cavendish failing to produce results, Greipel is a favourite? He's yet to proven he can win over 200km. He is probably the second best sprinter in the world behind Cavendish, but the Columbia lead out train this year is weakened compared to last year. I can't see Greipel coming top 3, but you never know.
Tom Boonen - $7
Coke head is on a high. He has had a handful of wins so far this year and claimed his first win on Italian soil last week in Stage 2 of Tirreno-Adriatico. He's declared his ambitions to win Flanders again and make it another win in Paris-Roubaix but he has also mentioned the Italian monument as a race he would like to win. He is in excellent form at the moment and cannot be discounted.
Mark Cavendish - $10
So the Manx Missile has gone out from a $3.50 favourite a month ago to a $10 chance. Despite him being out of form, if he creeps out further it's tempting to have a nibble. That's what the books want. For you to have a nibble and give them money. Everyone knows I'm a huge fan of Cavendish and have been before he turned professional. If his odds do go out further, I will consider backing him as a small stake.
Edvald Boasson-Hagen - $12
EBH is class. No doubt about it. This guy is a good outsider to win the Green Jersey at the TDF this year. He can climb, he can sprint, he is a major talent. Two years ago I said that Cavendish could probably win about 5 - 6 Green Jersey's. Well this guy is his major threat over the coming years. He is a quality rider and is good value to get Sky another classics victory following Flecha's win two weekends ago in a semi classic, Omloop. Don't discount this guy. He's a very strong chance to win this.
Philippe Gilbert - $12
Watching over the last few weeks you get a sense that Gilbert is close to producing a win. He has declared that he wouldn't mind winning this race, but he also has other ambitions. For him to win, he needs to get away on the Poggio and he needs to bring Cancellara and Boasson-Hagen with him. He won't be able to do a solo break. No one will be able to do a solo break. Not with strong teams like Rabobank, Liquigas and Quick-Step aiming for wins. Throw in Garmin, Columbia and Lampre for Pettachi and you have a 98% chance of a sprint. Won't be his year.
Oscar Freire - $12
Freire is in excellent form. He has a couple wins next to his name already, 3 in fact. He hasn't shown much in Tirreno-Adriatico, but if he does go well in the sprinters stage tomorrow, he is a good chance of backing it up on Saturday here. Rabobank have a strong team for him and he is a very strong chance here. Definately over the odds.
Heinrich Haussler - $15
A few weeks ago, I was actually eyeing Haussler for this race. He was the pick of the peloton this time last year even though he was unable to break through for a win. He is injured and his major goal is going one better in Flanders. I don't think he will race here. If he does, it will be to get some good form for Flanders. However, in Omloop a few weeks ago, he had the same injury and rode exceptionally well.
Alessandro Petacchi - $15
This guy has hit form at the right time. He's a huge danger here and he has had some good performances this year thus far. If he was to win any big race this year, MSR would be the one.
Filippo Pozzato - $17
The Italian has had mixed form so far this year. In actual fact, he hasn't impressed me at all. Don't touch.
Peter Sagan - $20
For starters, he's only listed because he was the talk of Paris-Nice last week winning two stages as a neo-pro. Liquigas are riding for Bennati. Don't waste your money backing him. Hell, he isn't even named on their start list yet.
Daniele Bennati - $20
This is more like it. Bennati is most likely going to be my pick Each-way. He is generous odds and he is in form. Liquigas were bloody strong last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, dominating the train in the closing kilometres like Columbia do. They have screwed up a few finishes but they are a dominate force. Bennati should be single figures, or even around $12. Not $20. If Liquigas do get their train right, he wins this.
Fabian Cancellara - $20
Cancellara has expressed his intentions on winning Flanders. He won't win here unless a break gets away but as mentioned previously, with so many sprinters teams strong and determined to deliver their men to the line, his chances are slim.
Thor Hushovd - $25
He's easing into his season. I highly doubt he will win here. He may feature in the top three, but Cervelo haven't got their train working.
Tyler Farrar - $28
The American is over the odds. He has a strong team and he's in reasonable form. He has no trouble getting over the Poggio. He can feature and will. They say he's feeling great and if his team mates didn't drop off in the lowsy conditions in TA, he would have probably had a couple of wins.
Allan Davis, Alessandro Ballan, Luis Leon Sanchez - $45
No chance.
Greg Henderson - $55
He's won a couple times this year and he should have no troubles getting over the Poggio the way he has climbed this year. Won a brilliant stage in PN last week in crap conditions. Could feature.
Gerald Ciolek - $55
No chance.
Lorenzetto, Breschel, Paolini, Loddo, Rodriguez
The first four cannot be discounted, particularly Paolini, but don't hold your breath. They won't feature. Rodriguez will be riding for McEwen.
Robbie McEwen - $65
Robbie has displayed some excellent form this year and has shown he can climb well, something he hasn't done in the past. He's not known as a climber but he is in excellent form at the moment. An outside chance. His odds should be more around $40.
Sylvain Chavanel, Sebastien Chavanel, Flecha, Avermaet - won't feature. Napolitano hasn't shown anything this year like he has other years.
I think the winner will come from Bennati, Freire, Farrar and Boonen. I'm leaning Bennati.
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