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AFL Round 5

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Posted: #1
YTD: 8/5 (+11.29 units)
Round 1 - No plays
Round 2 - 3/1
Round 3 - 2/3
Round 4 - 3/1
 
Essendon/St Kilda
Not all that comfortable betting the line of -18.5, I think the saints should come out winners but it'll be close to a 20 point win, it may very well cover but its a bit close for me. Trying to look for some value. The saints have won 3 out of 4 first quarters this year, while the bombers have lost 3 out of 4. The saints should cope with the speed of the game in the first quarter. Odds are a little short but I'll take it.
Saints 1st quarter $1.62
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
I like this bet
 
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Posted: #3
Thanks mate
 
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Posted: #4
Forgot, this is for 3 units
Saints 1st quarter $1.62
 
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Posted: #5
This is the best bet of the entire match, IMO.  Too bad I can't get such a thing. 
 
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Posted: #6
Thanks buddy, I think we should have a profitable weekend
 
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Posted: #7

Thanks tozer.  This round scares me.  Either I am gonna rake it in or take it in, don't know which.

 

 
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Posted: #8

A couple of people have said that, I hope I'm not seeing it wrong because I think there are a few matches that can be won (2-3 tomorow, 1 sunday). I'll be playing them fairly big

 
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Posted: #9
Make sure you give us a heads-up on which matches you'll be backing.  Love to hear your thoughts...
 
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Posted: #10

Actually, I only got 1 big play today and probably 2 tomorrow.

Adelaide/Freo
Have to go with Adelaide at -18.5. Freo don't travel well at the best of times. I really thought Mark Harvey could have put a bit of heart in this team. With Headland out, I think the crows will be able to control the middle and if they can, Pavlich's effectiveness will be limited. I see the crows winning by at least 30.
Crows -18.5 (7 units)

Brisbane/Hawks
If I didn't barrack for Brisbane I'd probably put some money on the hawks tonight. Not that would stop me putting money on them but its hard to be impartial. As said earlier, the hawks are a top 4 side and except for Stuart Dew they are at full strength. Any side would have to play exceptional footy to beat a top 4 side at full strength, so unfortunately I'd lean to the Hawks. I may end up putting a couple of units on them, I'll see.

 Last week, there were 3 big late withdrawls (Charman, Mitchell, Burns) that really pisses me off, apart from the pies (Burns) the other 2 withdrawls didn't seem to matter. Hopefully there won't be any this weekend (on the sides I've chosen)

 
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Posted: #11
A thing I love about the crows, they have a number of quality onballers, they can rotate a lot, so the opposition needs a good midfield, I don't think Freo has that at the moment.
 
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Posted: #12


Will be in a little later with my thoughts.
 
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Posted: #13
Collingwood/North
Just to keep things interesting tonight, rest of the main plays for me tomorrow. Not very confident on this, although I think they may win by about 5 goals.
Pies -7.5 (1 unit)
 
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Posted: #14

Not good yesterday with the crows but if a team misses that many easy shots (especially in the 3rd quarter) its going to be hard to cover. They should have been over 40 up going into the last, oh well, today I like two games.

WC/Port
I'm going with Port here. I think they played very good footy last week, exceptional first half. Its a bit of an ask to win over there but I think they will get a win. If you look at WC's best 4-5 players (which they will be relying on to play a big game if they are to win) Port has players of equal quality. I just think Port has a better spread of players over the rest of the ground.

I'm yet to see a line movement that has swung to the winning team. If anybody can recall one (this year) please let me know.
Port ML (5 units)
Port 1st quarter (5 units)

Melbourne/Carlton
Going against a lot of views here but going with Carlton. The line maybe overinflated (for a team with one win in god knows how long) but I think they will have a big win. I'll put a bit more of a writeup later.
Carlton -20.5 (5 units)

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

Melbourne/Carlton
Going against a lot of views here but going with Carlton. The line maybe overinflated (for a team with one win in god knows how long) but I think they will have a big win. I'll put a bit more of a writeup later.
Carlton -20.5 (5 units)

Bumped it up 2 units
Carlton -20.5 (7 units)

 
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Posted: #16
tozer, you mean, hasn't swung to the winning team.....right?
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

tozer, you mean, hasn't swung to the winning team.....right?

Ooops yep thats what I meant.

IMO this will be the last time there'll be a line under 40points for the Dees

 
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Posted: #18
Want to play the Bulldogs tonight, but something is holding me back.................any advice?
 
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Posted: #19
The bulldogs are playing some very nice football, I would be very confident with them getting the SU win.
 
Richmond was impressive last week but I think that can be put down just as much to Freo playing badly.
 
I would take the -18.5 on offer for the dogs or for the SU win
 
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Posted: #20
Thanks tozer.  Still mulling it and will probably be a last second decision.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:


WC/Port
I'm going with Port here. I think they played very good footy last week, exceptional first half. Its a bit of an ask to win over there but I think they will get a win. If you look at WC's best 4-5 players (which they will be relying on to play a big game if they are to win) Port has players of equal quality. I just think Port has a better spread of players over the rest of the ground.

Port ML (5 units)
Port 1st quarter (5 units)

Scrap those 2 bets

Just going with Port -6.5 (7 units)

 
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Posted: #22
Ended up not taking the Bulldogs.  Wow.  It's a bit of a shocker at the moment.
 
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Posted: #23
Richmond had a hard match last week and alot of travel.
Bulldogs had an 8 day break and are one of the fitest sides in the comp.
 
I might take the half time line for the dogs
 
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Posted: #24

Selection  1:
Aussie Rules (AFL), Football
West Coast Eagles 19-April-2008 11:40 PM PST
Spread +6.5 for Game -101


good luck guys
 
 
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Posted: #25
Bulldogs having a shocker.
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