AFL Round 4

One last thought before bed and gametime for those on the fence about this match.  I am a huge believer in the "marking" statistics and especially what the Inside 50 says.  I believe that this is the most telling stat of all as to visualizing and predicting an outcome.

Bulldoggies are 2nd in the League in total marks I50 and also 2nd in the League at shots at goal once inside the 50.  This is a massive stat and directly led to me taking them +12.5 against St. Kilda last round.

The Bombers, on the other hand, are the second worst in the League in allowing teams to mark inside the 50....worst if you don't count the Dees. 

Much like the Saints have trouble marking well inside their 50 due to tepid ball movement, and thus the right-side pick on the Dogs last round, the Bombers also suffer the same fate here.  It is a little trickier due to the fact that Essendon scores more freely that St. Kilda..........but with Lloyd, Lucas, and Jetta out......you know the rest.

Cheers guys and let's get this done!

That is a very suprising stat about the Dons. Thanks for that.

I think the reason why no one is picking this game is because it might be one to stay away from.  To be honest, on paper Melbourne's list looks better.  I think they perhaps are just not playing a game style that suits their players at the moment and perhaps down on confidence, but their game last week would have done a lot for their confidence and they will be going into this game thinking they can get the win. I think they can get the win but not going to put my money on it, I did tip Roos to win and most likely they will but I don't think this is a good betting game.  Good luck to you.

That was last night's game mate.....Doggies won.

North........ I mean Roos....... I mean Gold Coast....... whatever they call themselves these days

Any thoughts on the Lions game? I haven't watched any of their games this season however they do appear to be one dimensional up forward with too much reliance on Bradshaw & Brown.

Leaning on Port -15.5

Would like Port any other day of the week, but don't really know how they are going to show up after the rivalry match-up versus the Crows.  Could be drained, could come out buzzsaws...?

Wouldn't be on the Lions though, that's for sure.

I do have a few thoughts on the lions game Rod. I went for the lions in my tipping comp but that was purely wishful thinking.

HeadOver you've got a point, they may be drained. Port has 6 days rest (from the most physical game of the year to date) Brisbane has 7 days rest. Port will come out fired up, and I mean fired up! They are a very proud club and will do anything to get their first win. With Port at home, unfortunately I'd have to lean with them too Rod. A bit of history between the 2 teams should be a good match.

Carlton/Collingwood
I've been very impressed with the Pies attack on the ball this year. It should win them a lot of games. Carlton has a few problems. Firstly, the amount of goals they give up. They can never be confident of winning any games with the worst defence in the league. Second, they are continually fading in the last quarter.

Carlton has a resonable history with the Pies with keeping it close. But the Tigers had the same history and the Pies beat them easily last week. Looking at the same type of result. I haven't locked this in yet but I'd say I'll be putting 2-3 units on the Pies.
Collingwood -24.5 (2-3 units)

What's the odds payout on that parlay tozer?

Just another thing about the Bris/Port game. Brisbane have been heavily reliant on Brown/Bradshaw but they have already kicked 20 goals between them. Port's defence this year has been their weakness and Brisbane have close to their best forward line in. Will it be enough to conteract a huge HGA to Port?

HeadOver parlay is @$7.50

Good luck on that parlay!  Kangas and Cats just came home for you. 

Just 2 small plays today.

Collingwood -24.5 (2 units)
Hawthorn -14.5 (2 units)
As HeadOverHeart pointed out. Port completely fatigued last night meaning the Crows might struggle late as well, and the strength of the Hawks to finish strong makes this an attractive play for me. I was already leaning on a hawks win but this amkes me more certain of them covering.