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    AFL Round 3 (Picks)

    12 Next Last»
    gmanea
    TWILL
    Miracle1976
    ecoute
    tozer
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    12 Next Last»
     
    gmanea
    gmanea
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 8:42 AM ET #1

    YTD 6-4
    '07 53-32

    I thought I'd create a fresh thread to post my picks in, the other is quite full of chatter now (which it was created for) so here we go.  I'm back from Tasmania, will start to post more comments on the games from now on and join in on more discussions with my friends here.

    Going to just start with Friday night's game at the moment as a little short of time and want to evaluate the other games in further detail when I have more time.

    Western Bulldogs +16.5

    This is the most common line at all the books and very easily found (I don't share picks with lines that are too hard to find, out of fairness to all).  I think this should probably be an even money game, perhaps slight advantage to the Saints but not the nearly three goal favourites they are.  The doggies are a little more skillful with their disposal overall and definitely have the edge in speed throughout the midfield.  Their delivery into forward line is great and the addition this year of Scott Welsh just makes them a little more potent up forward.  St.Kilda's forward line is a little under question at the moment, I think the talent is still there but they are getting into each other's way a little at the moment.  This should be a close game, definitely worth taking the points and even think there is a pretty good chance the doggies get the win. 

    Will update again with the rest of the round, good luck.
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    YTD 6-4
    '07 53-32

    I thought I'd create a fresh thread to post my picks in, the other is quite full of chatter now (which it was created for) so here we go.  I'm back from Tasmania, will start to post more comments on the games from now on and join in on more discussions with my friends here.

    Going to just start with Friday night's game at the moment as a little short of time and want to evaluate the other games in further detail when I have more time.

    Western Bulldogs +16.5

    This is the most common line at all the books and very easily found (I don't share picks with lines that are too hard to find, out of fairness to all).  I think this should probably be an even money game, perhaps slight advantage to the Saints but not the nearly three goal favourites they are.  The doggies are a little more skillful with their disposal overall and definitely have the edge in speed throughout the midfield.  Their delivery into forward line is great and the addition this year of Scott Welsh just makes them a little more potent up forward.  St.Kilda's forward line is a little under question at the moment, I think the talent is still there but they are getting into each other's way a little at the moment.  This should be a close game, definitely worth taking the points and even think there is a pretty good chance the doggies get the win. 

    Will update again with the rest of the round, good luck.
     
    TWILL
    TWILL
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 11:35 AM ET #2

    2 wins for the bulldogs ......i see them as a bottom 4 team so i dont think they will go to well here .... but we will see what happens

    GL
    Reply
    2 wins for the bulldogs ......i see them as a bottom 4 team so i dont think they will go to well here .... but we will see what happens

    GL
     
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 2:26 PM ET #3

    Couldn't sleep...so I thought I'll share my thoughts on this game.
     
    First up, really liking the Saints here, over the last couple of years I have believed the Saints have been over rated, but this has changed with the addition of a few players and also a new coach.
     
    I don't think that the Dogs will have the space in their forward line like they have had in the past, we have to remember that Ross Lyon came from under Paul Roo's wing and thus will have learned alot from the way the Swan's have shut down sides in the past.  And when you take away a sides best advantage then this usually spells trouble.
     
    Saints have the talls and body strength all over the ground, and they have IMO a huge advantage in the Rucks.  Their backs match up well with the smaller forwards of the dogs, the mid field (with Scotty West - and I'll a massive fan - is starting to slow) will break even but the Saints forwards Vs Dogs defenders spells disaster for WB.
     
    GL on your play g-man, and I normally would follow but I simply don't like the Dogs in this spot   
    Reply
    Couldn't sleep...so I thought I'll share my thoughts on this game.
     
    First up, really liking the Saints here, over the last couple of years I have believed the Saints have been over rated, but this has changed with the addition of a few players and also a new coach.
     
    I don't think that the Dogs will have the space in their forward line like they have had in the past, we have to remember that Ross Lyon came from under Paul Roo's wing and thus will have learned alot from the way the Swan's have shut down sides in the past.  And when you take away a sides best advantage then this usually spells trouble.
     
    Saints have the talls and body strength all over the ground, and they have IMO a huge advantage in the Rucks.  Their backs match up well with the smaller forwards of the dogs, the mid field (with Scotty West - and I'll a massive fan - is starting to slow) will break even but the Saints forwards Vs Dogs defenders spells disaster for WB.
     
    GL on your play g-man, and I normally would follow but I simply don't like the Dogs in this spot   
     
    ecoute
    ecoute
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 6:03 PM ET #4

    Glad we agree on the Doggies. GL to us mate
    Reply
    Glad we agree on the Doggies. GL to us mate
     
    tozer
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 6:09 PM ET #5

    Gman, I agree with how you describe how the sides are fairing so far.
     
    Twill, I don't agree that the dogs should be bottom 4. Last year they were 9wins and 6 losses before they got decimated by injury. They have picked up a couple of valuable recruits over the summer making them better than last year. A big problem both the saints and dogs face this year and past years is their lack of depth, so when they get a couple of injuries (which is bound to happen at some stage) they don't have quality replacements. Then they perform the second half of the year worse than everybody expected.
    Reply
    Gman, I agree with how you describe how the sides are fairing so far.
     
    Twill, I don't agree that the dogs should be bottom 4. Last year they were 9wins and 6 losses before they got decimated by injury. They have picked up a couple of valuable recruits over the summer making them better than last year. A big problem both the saints and dogs face this year and past years is their lack of depth, so when they get a couple of injuries (which is bound to happen at some stage) they don't have quality replacements. Then they perform the second half of the year worse than everybody expected.
     
    tozer
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 6:11 PM ET #6

    Hopefully the saints win by 16, so we both win
    Reply
    Hopefully the saints win by 16, so we both win
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 9:46 PM ET #7

    If the Dogs are a Bottom 4 team......then truly how bad is Melbourne?
    Reply
    If the Dogs are a Bottom 4 team......then truly how bad is Melbourne?
     
    gmanea
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 1:02 AM ET #8

    Thanks for sharing thoughts guys, good luck to all.  Should be a good game either way, glad there are some guys liking the saints otherwise we wouldn't be getting so many points with the dogs tonight :)
    Reply
    Thanks for sharing thoughts guys, good luck to all.  Should be a good game either way, glad there are some guys liking the saints otherwise we wouldn't be getting so many points with the dogs tonight :)
     
    TWILL
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 4:57 AM ET #9

    fark first 5 goals too the saints what an embarrassment ....told yas they are bottom 4 material
    Reply
    fark first 5 goals too the saints what an embarrassment ....told yas they are bottom 4 material
     
    luckyshades
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 5:40 AM ET #10

    Is there a big advantage running towards one end of the ground ??
     
    Now the Dogs have kicked 4 or 5 straight in the 2nd.
     
    I'm on Saints 1-24.
    Reply
    Is there a big advantage running towards one end of the ground ??
     
    Now the Dogs have kicked 4 or 5 straight in the 2nd.
     
    I'm on Saints 1-24.
     
    TWILL
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 5:44 AM ET #11

    apparently the dogs are running wild .... i expect some chipping around second half
    Reply
    apparently the dogs are running wild .... i expect some chipping around second half
     
    luckyshades
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 6:59 AM ET #12

    This will be a monumental collapse ... 4 goals in the last 3 quarters for the Saints ?? geeeeez.
     
     
    Reply
    This will be a monumental collapse ... 4 goals in the last 3 quarters for the Saints ?? geeeeez.
     
     
     
    TWILL
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 7:02 AM ET #13

    what happened ?

    oh well saints thought they could run with them....but totally got rn off their feet
    Reply
    what happened ?

    oh well saints thought they could run with them....but totally got rn off their feet
     
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 7:05 AM ET #14

    Well played g-man. 
    Reply
    Well played g-man. 
     
    rod_steel
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 7:20 AM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by TWILL:

    fark first 5 goals too the saints what an embarrassment ....told yas they are bottom 4 material

    Not bad for a bottom feeder team

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by TWILL:

    fark first 5 goals too the saints what an embarrassment ....told yas they are bottom 4 material

    Not bad for a bottom feeder team

     
    gmanea
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 8:11 AM ET #16

    Doggies were never out of it, they have a lot of fight but even I was surprised at how much they won by in the end.  Well done to anyone that backed the doggies tonight.
    Reply
    Doggies were never out of it, they have a lot of fight but even I was surprised at how much they won by in the end.  Well done to anyone that backed the doggies tonight.
     
    gmanea
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 8:26 AM ET #17

    Sydney +5.5    (can get +6.5 at some books)
    Collingwood -19.5


    Going to pass on all the other games, although strong lean on Geelong minus the record high 72.5 points but just couldn't do it.  Also leant towards the bombers and hawks.  Comments to come on the above selections later in the day and some thoughts on the other games if anyone is interested but for now this is it, no more selections this weekend.  Good luck.

    Reply
    Sydney +5.5    (can get +6.5 at some books)
    Collingwood -19.5


    Going to pass on all the other games, although strong lean on Geelong minus the record high 72.5 points but just couldn't do it.  Also leant towards the bombers and hawks.  Comments to come on the above selections later in the day and some thoughts on the other games if anyone is interested but for now this is it, no more selections this weekend.  Good luck.

     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 12:10 PM ET #18

    Like the Swans as well. GL!
    Reply
    Like the Swans as well. GL!
     
    ecoute
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 6:23 PM ET #19

    If I have not said it before. This season for watching games is one of the best in a long while
     
    Doggies
    Reply
    If I have not said it before. This season for watching games is one of the best in a long while
     
    Doggies
     
    gmanea
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 7:42 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

    If I have not said it before. This season for watching games is one of the best in a long while
     
    Doggies


    also so many floggings lol
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

    If I have not said it before. This season for watching games is one of the best in a long while
     
    Doggies


    also so many floggings lol
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2008 - 12:10 AM ET #21

    Don't worry gmanea, there won't be any more lopsided games this round.












    Reply
    Don't worry gmanea, there won't be any more lopsided games this round.












     
    gmanea
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2008 - 2:03 AM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

    Don't worry gmanea, there won't be any more lopsided games this round.














    expecting melbourne to keep it close against the cats ? lol
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

    Don't worry gmanea, there won't be any more lopsided games this round.














    expecting melbourne to keep it close against the cats ? lol
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2008 - 2:10 AM ET #23

    No, I expect Melbourne to win.

    $10k at 101.00 = RETIREMENT







    (actually...equals $10k in debt...hahaha...)

    Reply
    No, I expect Melbourne to win.

    $10k at 101.00 = RETIREMENT







    (actually...equals $10k in debt...hahaha...)

     
    gmanea
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2008 - 2:15 AM ET #24

    it would be nice...
    One guy put down $100k on geelong to win at 1.04 (best odds available) to win $4k lol... 
    Reply
    it would be nice...
    One guy put down $100k on geelong to win at 1.04 (best odds available) to win $4k lol... 
     
     
    gmanea
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2008 - 7:13 AM ET #25

    what a goal fest in the carlton game, wow.  I did expect a high scoring game but not quite this high...
    Reply
    what a goal fest in the carlton game, wow.  I did expect a high scoring game but not quite this high...
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