AFL Round 2

(5-2 +3.5u)

Interesting round we have ahead of us now with a few teams going head to head to try to secure their first points of the season.

Richmond v Carlton

So here we have two teams, both hoping to have taken their first round victories but both having fallen short with opportunities to both having taken each match.

Odds on are for Richmond to dominate here.

I am going to keep this one short. Recent matches of this game have been decided by 11 points or less, therefore the obvious value is to taken Carlton with the points.

I prefer Mick Malthouse's coaching style to Richmond's. Last years finals showed how Carlton plays when they need to win. I believe it's a similar case here.

I'll be playing Carlton on the line (+10.5) for 1.5u.

(5-3 +2u)

Carlton +10.5 (98-86)

Normally, in the last 30 seconds the leading team defends a lead but Richmond went for the jugular on an ugly Carlton clearance. In hindsight, I should have gotten on at Pinnacle who were offering +12.5 at over $2.00. The last 6 second goal killed it!

A great game of football though.

Bad luck guru. Whats the play for hawks v bombers?

badluck guru i decided to play the margin richmond 1-39 at $2.10, just cos u said these teams play close. chur chur

Thanks ice! At least you got home! A last second goal was unbelievable and I didn't expect Carlton to blow out to +12.5. Goes to show that waiting sometimes provides immense value and I would have had the hook cover. And it seems that I am a bit late today as well!

Breaking news just in. Sam Mitchell is doubtful for tonight's game and I am hitting myself for not pulling the trigger on the Bombers +19.5 that we were getting this morning.

Bomber Thompson has completely changed the run and flow of how the bombers spread the ball. It definitely looks like a second Geelong team in the making.

I am getting on the Essendon ML for $2.75 for 2.5 units. I normally don't play the money line, but as it has been smashed down with the news just in, I am going to try and get some value while I can.

Enjoi

Just so that everyone is well aware.

Sharp money prior to Mitchell going through his fitness test was on the Hawks.

Previous matchups are mostly in favour of Essendon.

Other big line moves throughout the day:

Saints were 1.95 against GWS and have now moved as -4.5 favourites.

Adelaide have shortened and are now only +5.5 dogs against Port.

Interesting line moves today!

I expect that GWS may come back to a PK closer to start time. Again, missed value though with St Kilda as the slight dog.

Good Luck mate

Confirmed. Sam Mitchell is out. If there was ever a time for the bombers to get up, it's tonight.

More looking to play the handicap, grab +14.5.

Thanks mate.

Thanks for the input guru and good luck on that ML. I have been looking at the total score at 199.5 and think it will soar way over here. Do you think it has any value? 

If Essendon wouldnt have lured me in with the ML value, then the over would have been the play. Last time these two teams played it certainly soared over the posted total.

Good luck either way mate

Yeh I pulled the trigger in the over. Hoping for a stronger and faster 2nd quarter

Ouch! Burned two nights in a row right at the post! Two goals in 90 seconds killed the Essendon h2h when they lead by 11. That's footy!

Did u end up taking the bombers plus points? So close on the ML but you made the right call with the value there

Yeah I took the points and a live bet on them as well, but no official plays. Shooting in the right direction, but just pipped!

Also unfortunate about the over mate. When one team was scoring, the other couldn't. Massive difference with the offensive structure of both teams compared to last year.

Bombers cover the handicap easily, they were the better team in the second...up until when it counted! At least the value with them will continue!

Onwards and upwards....Hoping St Kilda drift back to a PK for tomorrow.

Close last night! Lets have another crack tonight!

Small plays to get back on top of close situations.

I'll be taking

Adelaide +3.5 (1.5u)
Fremantle -41.5 (1u)
Collingwood +14.5 (1.5u)

Saints with a nice solid win.

With on the dirty Pies 

Round so far

Carlton +10.5 (1.5u)
Essendon ML (2.5u)
Essendon +14.5 (2.5u)
St Kilda ML (1u)
Adelaide +3.5 (1.5u)
Fremantle -41.5 (1u)
Collingwood +14.5 (1.5u)

Bah .5u profit

Move to 9-5 (+4u)

Nicely played by the pies. Nearly made them my ML bet of the week, but convinced Essendon were the team to do it! Their strong run in Sydney continues and now all the questions go to the ten million dollar man in Buddy!

I agree mate. I think they will use him as a scapegoat though if things don't go right. He isn't being fed the ball as he is used to and it will take time for him to also get used to his team mates. They will still make the top 4-6.

Freo, for me, is the team to beat this year. Lyons is so hungry and it shows.


North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Just one play for me today as the West Coast game has moved significantly during the week from -40.5 to -47.5 now.

Having read a lot of the media in relation to North's performance over Essendon, it seems to have light a play in the belly's of the players. Significant changes have apparently been made this week and to be honest, where the Western Bulldogs did so well in last season with contested possessions, seems to have vanished this season which should make it a lot easier for the kanga's to score, both off turnovers and out of stoppages.

I'll be playing on North Melbourne on the line at (-20.5) for 3 units.

This should hopefully be a percentage booster for the Kangaroos to launch their top 8 campaign for the year.

With you on the Kangas but took em -9.5 for the first half. I really hope they bounce back here as on paper they are clearly the better team. Bombers were too much for them last week and North Melbourne's offense was almost non-existent; this game should be a tide-turner for them. Good luck guru 

(10-5 +7u)
Well it wasn't a percentage booster and we got lucky in the 4th.

Every week, I do my multi, came close this week (done early in the week when Carlton was +6.5, look at all the other healthy lines though!). Adelaide and the last 6 second goal Richmond kicked, killed it. Still 7 of 9! So close to a large multi payout :)

https://imageshack.com/a/img716/2365/v3qu.png

Small profit this week which only killed in the past minute of two games (Adelaide was a bad call). Next Friday nights game should be great!

Watch the huge lines that Melbourne will now offer as its back to their normal massive lines after today.

@Enjoi. Bad luck mate. Pathetic 3 and a half quarters of footy from North. Probably shouldnt have won it.