AFL Round 18

Question

St Kilda 1.10 (-39.5)Adelaide 7.00North Melbourne 1.13 (-40.5)Brisbane 6.00Sydney 1.56 (-11.5)Western Bulldogs 2.45Gold Coast 17.00Collingwood 1.01 (-78.5)Essendon 2.80Carlton 1.44 (-15.5)Geelong 1.08 (-46.5)Richmond 8.00Fremantle 2.60West Coast (-14.5)Leans:St Kilda 1-39Gold Coast &#x2B;78.5Essendon ML and &#x2B;15.5Fremantle MLThe one line that jumped out at me was the number of points St Kilda is giving Adelaide on Friday night. Since when did the Saints deserve to give anyone 40 points (even Adelaide)? They were written off a couple of weeks ago and almost squandered a 40-point lead last week before just sneaking home. They&#x27;re a better side than they&#x27;ve played in 2011, but I think this is a spot where the Saints have been over-estimated.St Kilda at Etihad Stadium in 2011 (4-2):lost to Essendon by 52 (Team Total = 84)lost to Carlton by 3 (Team Total = 81)d. Melbourne by 22 (Team Total = 106)d. Western Bulldogs by 24 (Team Total = 81)d. North Melbourne by 9 (Team Total = 79)d. West Coast by 21 (Team Total = 82)Average winning margin = 19.00Average score = 85.50Also note the scoring range of 79-84 points over the course of FIVE GAMES (so incredibly narrow) with the only exception being the 106 posted against Melbourne who have terminal problems playing at Etihad Stadium.Adelaide at Etihad Stadium in 2011 (0-4):lost to Carlton by 6 (Team Total = 76)lost to Collingwood by 42 (Team Total = 92)lost to North Melbourne by 47 (Team Total = 68)lost to Western Bulldogs by 30 (Team Total = 70)Average losing margin = 31.25Average score = 76.50Also note the caliber of teams that the Crows have played. No easy games here.ComparisonSt Kilda average score at Etihad: 85.50Adelaide average score at Etihad: 76.50St Kilda average winning margin: 19.00Adelaide average losing margin: 31.25So someone please tell me why the Crows have been given 39.5 points and why St Kilda by 1-39 points @ 2.45 should not be the obvious play?If the Saints matched their highest score at Etihad (106) and the Crows matched their lowest (70), the margin would still only be 36 points.Granted there are other factors at play including a) teams going in opposite directions b) personnel changes c) how the teams match up (St Kilda won by 29 IN Adelaide earlier this season) and d) the chase for percentage points, which is arguably a non-factor considering St Kilda has a draw.Saints no doubt a better team, but are they a team you would lay 40 points with??

Alistair · Answer

St Kilda 1.10 (-39.5)Adelaide 7.00North Melbourne 1.13 (-40.5)Brisbane 6.00Sydney 1.56 (-11.5)Western Bulldogs 2.45Gold Coast 17.00Collingwood 1.01 (-78.5)Essendon 2.80Carlton 1.44 (-15.5)Geelong 1.08 (-46.5)Richmond 8.00Fremantle 2.60West Coast (-14.5)Leans:St Kilda 1-39Gold Coast &#x2B;78.5Essendon ML and &#x2B;15.5Fremantle MLThe one line that jumped out at me was the number of points St Kilda is giving Adelaide on Friday night. Since when did the Saints deserve to give anyone 40 points (even Adelaide)? They were written off a couple of weeks ago and almost squandered a 40-point lead last week before just sneaking home. They&#x27;re a better side than they&#x27;ve played in 2011, but I think this is a spot where the Saints have been over-estimated.St Kilda at Etihad Stadium in 2011 (4-2):lost to Essendon by 52 (Team Total = 84)lost to Carlton by 3 (Team Total = 81)d. Melbourne by 22 (Team Total = 106)d. Western Bulldogs by 24 (Team Total = 81)d. North Melbourne by 9 (Team Total = 79)d. West Coast by 21 (Team Total = 82)Average winning margin = 19.00Average score = 85.50Also note the scoring range of 79-84 points over the course of FIVE GAMES (so incredibly narrow) with the only exception being the 106 posted against Melbourne who have terminal problems playing at Etihad Stadium.Adelaide at Etihad Stadium in 2011 (0-4):lost to Carlton by 6 (Team Total = 76)lost to Collingwood by 42 (Team Total = 92)lost to North Melbourne by 47 (Team Total = 68)lost to Western Bulldogs by 30 (Team Total = 70)Average losing margin = 31.25Average score = 76.50Also note the caliber of teams that the Crows have played. No easy games here.ComparisonSt Kilda average score at Etihad: 85.50Adelaide average score at Etihad: 76.50St Kilda average winning margin: 19.00Adelaide average losing margin: 31.25So someone please tell me why the Crows have been given 39.5 points and why St Kilda by 1-39 points @ 2.45 should not be the obvious play?If the Saints matched their highest score at Etihad (106) and the Crows matched their lowest (70), the margin would still only be 36 points.Granted there are other factors at play including a) teams going in opposite directions b) personnel changes c) how the teams match up (St Kilda won by 29 IN Adelaide earlier this season) and d) the chase for percentage points, which is arguably a non-factor considering St Kilda has a draw.Saints no doubt a better team, but are they a team you would lay 40 points with??

OzFactor · Answer

Totally agree with your synopsis on the Saints/Crows game. 39 points is massive considering the crows can play decent footy at Etihad. Also Johncock is a definite starter which is plus for the crows.

Alistair i think you find the Crows beat Saints at Adelaide earlier this year, anyways BOL with your play.

rooboybaz · Answer

im liking the blues personally... they need to try cement a top 4 spot or the eagles will get it. and the eagles have the easiest run home in the AFL.

this is a MUST win for the blues and IMO bombers were horrible last week

ecoute · Answer

Saints are playing for a spot in the 8. You can bet there will be a lot of possession football by the saints. Crows have a not so good record at Etihad and Johncock out for them is a big problem as he was their run out from the backline. Saints can also shut down the Crows avenue to goal..... Tippet..... so just some thoughts.

Recommendation wait for teams at 5pm on friday. I think Taylor Walker is still on suspension but if he gets included play the Crows +39.5 otherwise take the Saints.

Alistair · Answer

Agree that Carlton is the better side, but Essendon has a good history against them. The Bombers have won 6 of the last 8 against them (all at the MCG) and the most recent clash was a draw.

Geelong · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;bookies must have got inside word on something because the line definitely seems odd. Check their % and it&#x27;s currently standing at 99.92%. Depending on how well St Kilda defend and keep opposition sides to below average scorelines, a 7&#x2B; goal win for them would give them a pretty decent boost of percentage which is what they are now playing for. Not only do these teams that are fighting for a finals spot have to win but that all important percentage will be so crucial at the end of round 24. I&#x27;m taking the Saints as I have a sneaky feeling Johncock won&#x27;t play and the Crows just aren&#x27;t right at the moment. Something rotten in that club and perhaps they do want a new coach.

ecoute · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Geelong]  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;bookies must have got inside word on something because the line definitely seems odd. Check their % and it&#x27;s currently standing at 99.92%. Depending on how well St Kilda defend and keep opposition sides to below average scorelines, a 7&#x2B; goal win for them would give them a pretty decent boost of percentage which is what they are now playing for. Not only do these teams that are fighting for a finals spot have to win but that all important percentage will be so crucial at the end of round 24. I&#x27;m taking the Saints as I have a sneaky feeling Johncock won&#x27;t play and the Crows just aren&#x27;t right at the moment. Something rotten in that club and perhaps they do want a new coach.  [/Quote]You are probably right. See if you can find Thompson&#x27;s interview where he basically laid into the players and his coach saying they had basically given up

rooboybaz · Answer

i definitely see where u are coming from- but in the draw i personally believe that was essendon at FULL FORCE and they couldnt capitalise due to the 2 serious injuries they copped. at the serious end o the seaon i just see the cream rising to the topGL brother from another mother

Geelong · Answer

some strange shit for tonights game and betting with TAB, how many times do they even open up their super line market?  Offering Saints -60, -75 and even offering Crows &#x2B;51 @ 1.50 which is pretty fair odds if you wanted to do a parlay. Seems like they believe Saints win and win big

nbird33 · Answer

love your analysis Alistair...just a shame Adelaide or so truly horrible !!  BOL

AFL Round 18

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