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AFL Round 13 - Discussion

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Posted: #1
Hello to everyone...had a good week last round as I had a small wager on Geel -27.5 which was nice enough to win for me as I have been realy struggling lately, which is due to my own fault as I had been saying it for weeks that this part of the year can be really tricky.
 
Anyway, onto this weeks games, and as usual the lines are just guesses, but ML's are correct as per sportingbet:
 
Saints ($1.62) Vs Freo ($2.28)               Line 13
 
Hawks ($1.20) Vs North Melb ($4.50)      Line 31
 
Port ($1.35) Vs Rich ($3.18)                   Line 22
 
Bris ($1.35) Vs Adel ($3.18)                   Line 22
 
West Coast ($5.00) Vs Geel ($1.17)        Line 36
 
Melb ($6.75) Vs Syd ($1.10)                   Line 47
 
Carl ($1.35) Vs Ess ($3.18)                    Line 22
 
Coll ($2.45) Vs Bulldogs ($1.55)              Line 16
 
I will be having a serious look at Hawks, Tigers & a big watch on a good Adel line 
 
 
 
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Posted: #2
 
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Posted: #3
A few random thoughts...
 
Great round last week, as stated I thought the lines were all favouring the favourites and as it turned out all favourites (except the pies) won and covered.
 
Can't wait for the Bris/Adelaide game, from a supporters view. Brisbane very much needs the win. They have one of the best records for winning the first quarter and Adelaide have one of the worst.
 
Also at that huge price I'll be tempted to put some on the Eagles to win the first quarter.
 
Very confident on the Saints winning the first quarter. They have only lost one first quarter at home this year, beating many very good sides. I don't trust them to finish the game out but one thing is for certain they start very well.
 
Port/Tigers both have some serious issues with playing 4 full quarters.
 
I like the bulldogs to cover 16. What an impressive effort last week. the dogs out tackled the second best tackling side in the game. IMO the lions younger players are one season less experienced than the dogs younger players.
 
Hawks should get back Guerra, Crawford & Taylor but lose Bateman. I think they really miss Sewell, they haven't been as dominant in the middle since he left.
 
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Posted: #4
Ok after looking at it in more detail I still like the saints to win first quarter @ $1.82 (7 units).
 
The only doubt is whether Kozi will play. I'll still be playing it regardless if he's out.
 
Its not often I have AFL plays set up this early in the week. I happy to have a main play for the first game of the round.
 
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Posted: #5
GL tozer...just don't know what you'll get with both these sides, but I'll be cheering for you.
 
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Posted: #6
Not sure what I'll get from the dockers but I'm pretty confident, thanks mate
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

Hello to everyone...had a good week last round as I had a small wager on Geel -27.5 which was nice enough to win for me as I have been realy struggling lately, which is due to my own fault as I had been saying it for weeks that this part of the year can be really tricky.
 
Anyway, onto this weeks games, and as usual the lines are just guesses, but ML's are correct as per sportingbet:
 
Saints ($1.62) Vs Freo ($2.28)               Line 13
 
Hawks ($1.20) Vs North Melb ($4.50)      Line 31
 
Port ($1.35) Vs Rich ($3.18)                   Line 22
 
Bris ($1.35) Vs Adel ($3.18)                   Line 22
 
West Coast ($5.00) Vs Geel ($1.17)        Line 36
 
Melb ($6.75) Vs Syd ($1.10)                   Line 47
 
Carl ($1.35) Vs Ess ($3.18)                    Line 22
 
Coll ($2.45) Vs Bulldogs ($1.55)              Line 16
 
I will be having a serious look at Hawks, Tigers & a big watch on a good Adel line 
 
 


First-look likes in Bold.  Absolutely no research or venue knowledge included.  Straight-up first likes.
 
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Posted: #8

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs

I've gone over this game a fair bit and will be backing the doggies. Reasons, where do I start?

Rucks - Although Fraser for the pies can be a handy forward I think the dogs hold a nice edge over him (and Bryan) in the stoppages with Hudson/Minson. The dogs already have an advantage in the midfield with Cooney unstopable and Boyd can stop Swan and to be given first opportunity gives them a chance to dominate in the middle.

With Cloke (and probably Rocca) out for the pies their forward line is in tatters. While they have talent in Medhurst, Didak, Davis and Thomas, IMO the dogs have good matchups for them (probably Hargrave, Morris, Ray and Gilbee respectively).

The dogs on the other hand have a heap of talented forwards with Johnson, Aker, Welsh and Murphy just a few.

Collingwood like to play an in close game, a predictable game and play well against teams who kick the ball to the same spot and play a similiar style. In general Sydney, Geelong, Brisbane and Adelaide all tend to struggle against Collingwood because they are a bit easier to shut down ie. they contest strongly, but they don't really take risks. The dogs don't play this way, they have an unpredictable style which changes depending on the state of the game and also the make-up of their forwardline.

Another stat thats been floating about which I'm not convinced it holds much weight is who has collingwood beaten? 6 of their 7 wins come from the bottom 6 teams.
Wins over:
Fremantle (14th currently) - M.C.G - in Rd1
Richmond (11th) - M.C.G - in Rd 3
Essendon (13th) -M.C.G - in Rd 6
St. Kilda (10th) - T.D - in Rd 8
Geelong (1st) - M.C.G - Rd 9
West. Coast (15th) - M.C.G - Rd 10
Melbourne (16th) - M.C.G - Rd 11

Loses to:
Brisbane - (7th) - Gabba - in Rd 2
Carlton - (8th) - M.C.G - in Rd 4
North Melbourne - (9th) - M.C.G - in Rd 5
Hawthorn - (2nd) - M.C.G - in Rd 7
Carlton - (8th) - M.C.G - in Rd 12

I think it'll be a very hot opening quarter but I'm in little doubt over the final outcome. Dogs by greater than 4 goals.

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs

I've gone over this game a fair bit and will be backing the doggies. Reasons, where do I start?

Rucks - Although Fraser for the pies can be a handy forward I think the dogs hold a nice edge over him (and Bryan) in the stoppages with Hudson/Minson. The dogs already have an advantage in the midfield with Cooney unstopable and Boyd can stop Swan and to be given first opportunity gives them a chance to dominate in the middle.

With Cloke (and probably Rocca) out for the pies their forward line is in tatters. While they have talent in Medhurst, Didak, Davis and Thomas, IMO the dogs have good matchups for them (probably Hargrave, Morris, Ray and Gilbee respectively).

The dogs on the other hand have a heap of talented forwards with Johnson, Aker, Welsh and Murphy just a few.

Collingwood like to play an in close game, a predictable game and play well against teams who kick the ball to the same spot and play a similiar style. In general Sydney, Geelong, Brisbane and Adelaide all tend to struggle against Collingwood because they are a bit easier to shut down ie. they contest strongly, but they don't really take risks. The dogs don't play this way, they have an unpredictable style which changes depending on the state of the game and also the make-up of their forwardline.

Another stat thats been floating about which I'm not convinced it holds much weight is who has collingwood beaten? 6 of their 7 wins come from the bottom 6 teams.
Wins over:
Fremantle (14th currently) - M.C.G - in Rd1
Richmond (11th) - M.C.G - in Rd 3
Essendon (13th) -M.C.G - in Rd 6
St. Kilda (10th) - T.D - in Rd 8
Geelong (1st) - M.C.G - Rd 9
West. Coast (15th) - M.C.G - Rd 10
Melbourne (16th) - M.C.G - Rd 11

Loses to:
Brisbane - (7th) - Gabba - in Rd 2
Carlton - (8th) - M.C.G - in Rd 4
North Melbourne - (9th) - M.C.G - in Rd 5
Hawthorn - (2nd) - M.C.G - in Rd 7
Carlton - (8th) - M.C.G - in Rd 12

I think it'll be a very hot opening quarter but I'm in little doubt over the final outcome. Dogs by greater than 4 goals.



I like your way of thinking.
 
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Posted: #10
Saints ML now out to $1.80...must be some BIG money for Freo, that's an 16 cent shift since Tues, that's 2 days
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

Saints ML now out to $1.80...must be some BIG money for Freo, that's an 16 cent shift since Tues, that's 2 days

And that was with my favourite 'Centrebet'...the line isn't even avaliable at Sportingbet (10.50pm Adelaide), somethings going on, does anyone know anything

 
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Posted: #12
doggies look like theyll take the chocolates..no rocca no cloke for the magies..$$$$ so its a game of smalls ..and ill take the doggies smalls against anyone elses at telstra dome.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

And that was with my favourite 'Centrebet'...the line isn't even avaliable at Sportingbet (10.50pm Adelaide), somethings going on, does anyone know anything


Kozi just got ruled out for another week late last night
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

Saints ML now out to $1.80...must be some BIG money for Freo, that's an 16 cent shift since Tues, that's 2 days

Out to $2 on Sportingbet!  I'm sure just because Kozi is out doesn't mean a shift now of 38 cents.  Can someone please provide me the site again showing were all the money is being placed on games for the weekend?

 
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Posted: #15
Only show TAB
 
ROUND THIRTEEN

$10,000 @ $1.41 ON HAWTH/GEEL/SYDNEY MULTI
$9,000 @ $1.30 ON CARLTON V ESSENDON
$5,500 @ $1.33 ON BRISBANE V ADELAIDE
$5,000 @ $1.90 ON BRISBANE -15.5 V ADELAIDE
$5,000 @ $1.42 ON WESTERN BULLDOGS V COLLINGWOOD
$5,000 @ $1.90 ON KANGAROOS +34.5 V HAWTHORN

 
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Posted: #16
3AW are suggesting that Nick Dal Santo will be dropped when the St. Kilda team is named tonight.
But I think it not true but by the looks of the movement somebody will be dropped
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

3AW are suggesting that Nick Dal Santo will be dropped when the St. Kilda team is named tonight.
But I think it not true but by the looks of the movement somebody will be dropped

Actually apparently it true, Fox Sports has said it too

 
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Posted: #18
flip flop in the saints freo match :o
 
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Posted: #19
I can't believe they would drop Del Santo (coming 2nd in disposals with the Saints) and not drop Montagna??
 
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Posted: #20
SEN have said that Fraser and Davis are out for C'wood.
 
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Posted: #21
Well that makes the dogs my largest bet this weekend
Magpies assistant coach confirming huge losses
 
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Posted: #22
 get it while its still -16.5
 
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Posted: #23
fraser and davis out for the magiesaswell as cloke and rocca..shessh i thought it looked good before i heard they where out.hearing them talk about injuries on that link they dont sound to confident going into this game.get on the doggies this week and now before the line gos up.
 
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Posted: #24
Good info tozer, well done mate.

I placed a sizable wager on Tuesday @ $1.50 and have now almost matched that on the -16.5.

Good luck boys, should be interesting to see the line movement up until game time.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Doggies game suspended @ most books now, some books back up at $1.35 -21.5.
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