AFL rnd 10

typical afl season..the 1st few weeks u wait to get a feel for how good the teams are n dont put much on..then for a month or so make a heap of money on off lines(rnd 4-7) but then the bookies usually sharpen up at about this time so no solid picks..just posting teams to see how strong they are to help me decide if ill take anything or stuff at half time.

 

ADELAIDE V ESSENDON
ADELAIDE
B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Nathan Bassett
HB: Scott Stevens, Nathan Bock, Michael Doughty
C: David Mackay, Scott Thompson, Andrew McLeod
HF: Bernie Vince, Simon Goodwin, Richard Douglas
F: Jason Porplyzia, Kurt Tippett, Brett Burton
Foll: Jonathon Griffin, Tyson Edwards, Nathan van Berlo
IC: Chris Knights, Ivan Maric, Brent Reilly, Robert Shirley
EMG: Luke Jericho, Ken McGregor, Andy Otten

No change

ESSENDON
B: Henry Slattery, Patrick Ryder, Nathan Lovett-Murray
HB: Jay Nash, Adam McPhee, Kyle Reimers
C: Jason Winderlich, Bachar Houli, David Myers
HF: Andrew Welsh, Scott Lucas, Andrew Lovett
F: Dustin Fletcher, Matthew Lloyd, Tom Hislop
Foll: David Hille, Brent Stanton, Mark McVeigh
I/C: Jay Neagle, Sam Lonergan, Leroy Jetta, Angus Monfries
EMG: Tayte Pears, Tom Bellchambers, Adam Ramanauskas

 

 

so from that u can see the crows dont look that good but its there structure n gameplan that get them wins.

usually when i see ess lose its when everyone is playing all over the place and there structure breaks down from midfield to centrehalf forward..so its the opposite of adelaide which could spell trouble for ess.

ess have gotten toweled up the last couple of seasons and crows have had some big wins even without a key forward.

ess could cover if its bad condtions in adelaide as ess have the advantage in forwards lucas n lloyd so if its wet both will just bomb it long into the forward 50 helping ess chances of covering but not sure what the weathers like

so crows could win this by 70+ or ess keep it close with alot of luck they could even win outright.

nothing on the game tonight

ess 9-1 +42.5 last 10 friday night games

crows 4-0 recent friday night games at AAMI  by 9 72 138(ess) 7

crows 9-1 under 202.5 last 10 friday night games

ess 7-3 over 202.5 last 10 friday night games

 

crows 7-2 under 202.5 this season

ess 4-5 under 202.5 this season

 

no proper picks on tonights game but posting what loose change im putting on for some action on the game

130 ess +21.5 1st half

130 adelaide ess under 101.5 1st half

60 ess 1234 at 23.00..$1320 payout 

I am with you mate. Nothing for tonight. Some big inclusions for the Dons and Crows more times than none don't make big scores.

yeh they add lucas to the team youd think theyd chop a goal off that line .on paper ess should cover but adelaide counters ess attacking style with crisp team work and solid defence hence the reason for sitting on the fence.

 

i came up with a good pick most here cant or wont as no ones posted any .. but ill post it

$15 a pt adelaide crows under 450 jumper numbers...usually that the jumper number  total for both teams so gotta give it a go.

crows jumper number total last week was a pathetic 72 so if it was offered last week : 378* 15 = 5670 return for $12 index.

 

* 72 crows jumper number total v wc...so for this to lose theyll need more than 6 times the score they got last week.

basset 8
doughty 11
edwards 9
griffin 6
johncock 18
mackay 14
shirley 12
thompson 5
tippet 4
van berlo 7
vince 17

 

mcleod 23
knights 21
maric 20

bock 44
porplizia 40
goodwin 36
reilly 33
stevens 27
douglas 26

rutten 25

 

so 6 guys do damage to the under 450(rutten never goals) any of the others goal and it doesnt really matter.

blues 111 16.15
burton 24 24 24 24
douglas 26 26
doughty 11
goodwin 36
mcleod 23
popliza 40
tippet 2
vince 17
269

roos 107 15.17
burton 24 24 24
douglas 26
edwards 9..107
goodwin 36 36 36..108
jacky 10
porplizia 40 40 40 40..160
tippet 4 4
393

 

melb 150 22.18
burton 24*5 = 120
goodwin 36 36 36 108
jericho 30 30 30 90
knights 21
porplizia 40 40 40 120
stevens 27
tippet 4 4 16
van berlo 7
vince 17
526

douglas 26

johncock 18

maric 20

porpliza 40

104 jumper number at the half looking good so far

 

180 ess +27.5 2nd half cause its low scoring and close so worth a shot.

450 -104 = 346 to go in a low scoring and close game moose if they score heaps and it loses or doesnt win by atleast 50

added 20 ess 2nd half line

friday* typing in the dark s

 

major slice of luck how crows kept missing and missing and missing  there forward lines sucks big time

magies wc..wc played very well last week..while magies well how good where they they smashed the cats..toss a coin as to who will bring last weeks form to this game and for who will cover. wc where playing pathetic before last week..they still have alot of premiership players so can be more than competitive on any given day while the magies with there young list arent that consistent.

 

hawks dogs..line went from dogs +13.5 to +6.5..if mitchells out then hawks are missing hodge crawford and mitchell which is the hawks engine room..which might spell trouble against the dogs whos main strength is midfield run. hawks also missing dew and guerra woh are dangerous.

 

 

 

brissy roos..brissy havent proven themselves to be a consistent strong winning side who chalks up comfortable wins while roos as usual keep winning or being competitie season after season..talent wise they are both evenly matched..except lions have the double dragons brown n bradshaw..lions could cover or the shinboners make it a close game.

 

cats blues..both have full strength squads..blues are just going along not getting thrashed n winning a few so far this year..while cats got massacred as they needed/got a good old beating to work out what things they can fix up to help get another premiership..so blues with judd stevens n fev firing can keep it close..but who knows how savage the cats will be after last week they could massacre the blues in this one.

 

so to sum up might take the dogs if mitchells missing for the hawks..nothing else looks good.

 

 

thx hoh indexing is very profitable ..books that offer it are aussie bookies sporstacumen and global..good to make alot of money if u win but bad if u lose by alot fortunately i only index real solid picks so win nearly all of them

300 hawks dogs under 208.5

$12 a pt on the under

 

2 of the top 3 teams playing usually lower scoring as both have alot of respect for eachother and dont want either to get a bunch of goals in a row...hawks 1-9 over 197 last 10 games at aurora...wb only game at aurora 125 total v saints. i thought the total would be 10-20 pts lower 188.5-198.5 due to the circumstances of the game 1 v 3 and where its played.

$200 magies wc under 199.5..wc crows 144 total last week so maybe wc has fixed up there dee a bit..wcs forward line and ability to pile on goals is non existent while in recent years wc has done ok against the magies so either might not get heaps of quick goals.

100 wc magies under 99.5 1st half

100 wb hawks under 102.5 1st half

line changed just before i took it so instead:

120 wc magies under 99.5 1st half

120 wb hawks under 103.5 1st half

Fremantle
B: Heath Black, Antoni Grover, Michael Johnson
HB: David Mundy, Luke McPharlin, Scott Thornton
C: Garrick Ibbotson, Peter Bell, Brett Peake
HF: Rhys Palmer, Chris Tarrant, Dean Solomon
F: Jeff Farmer, Matthew Pavlich, Chris Mayne
Foll: Aaron Sandilands, Ryan Crowley, Josh Carr
I/C: Kepler Bradley, Marcus Drum, Paul Duffield, Shaun McManus
EMG: Byron Schammer, Robert Warnock, Mark Johnson

In: Drum, Josh Carr
Out: Steven Dodd (calf), Byron Schammer

Port Adelaide
B: Michael Pettigrew, Alipate Carlile, Jacob Surjan
HB: Peter Burgoyne, Toby Thurstans, Michael Wilson
C: Domenic Cassisi, Chad Cornes, Kane Cornes
HF: David Rodan, Warren Tredrea, Travis Boak
F: Daniel Motlop, Justin Westhoff, Robert Gray
Foll: Dean Brogan, Steven Salopek, Danyle Pearce
I/C: Brendon Lade, Nathan Krakouer, Troy Chaplin, Tom Logan
EMG: Paul Stewart, Damon White, Nick Lower

In: Krakouer
Out: Brett Ebert (ankle)