Posted:
#1
Last Rd: 3-3
YTD: 7-3
Round 3 starting off soon, and I've done it yet again: did not pull trigger on strong leans early in the week and line moved enough to lose the play.
Sydney is the only one remaining.
Was very keen on WCE line -18.5, WB getting +8.5 and a bit less on NM laying -24. Am fully committed to make plays next week if Tin is aligned (or not, as in the case of WB).
I'm definitely not playing the Port line (or match). Initially I thought they would come out blazing and make a statement win. However, even though they might just do that, I could easily see them settling for 35-40 point win in the end.
Bombers have played them well historically, and may very well have a bit of let down after the big win. But Port are showing (to me) consistency and commitment issues that were ugly last season. The icing on the cake was hearing on AFL Exchange podcast about them taking Charlie Dixon after he was cut from the Suns (I really don't follow details like that too closely, thus my question about info sources last week). Anyway, key point here: the organization making that decision does give confidence. Back to the consistency and commitment issues.
For tomorrow's matches, I'm definite on the Swans line, very likely on the Pies -11.5, likely on Roos, on the fence with Adelaide.
Anyone have a view on these matches (or others)? Here are my hesitations for each match:
Pies: too many injuries? Saints will bring the effort and have the talent to keep this close and outright win.
Roos: a lot of points to lay with this team after 2 straight victories facing a team coming off the most embarrassing loss of the season (because it was the Bombers)
Crows: I can see how the model and the market has these teams ranked roughly the same, and Tigers will be desperate. But man, Crows offense and accuracy are leagues above the Tigers. I can't see how the Tiges could keep the Crows in check and all of the sudden score well, but I know they have the talent and ability to do it. We've seen it before.
Good luck this weekend, and more tomorrow.
YTD: 7-3
Round 3 starting off soon, and I've done it yet again: did not pull trigger on strong leans early in the week and line moved enough to lose the play.
Sydney is the only one remaining.
Was very keen on WCE line -18.5, WB getting +8.5 and a bit less on NM laying -24. Am fully committed to make plays next week if Tin is aligned (or not, as in the case of WB).
I'm definitely not playing the Port line (or match). Initially I thought they would come out blazing and make a statement win. However, even though they might just do that, I could easily see them settling for 35-40 point win in the end.
Bombers have played them well historically, and may very well have a bit of let down after the big win. But Port are showing (to me) consistency and commitment issues that were ugly last season. The icing on the cake was hearing on AFL Exchange podcast about them taking Charlie Dixon after he was cut from the Suns (I really don't follow details like that too closely, thus my question about info sources last week). Anyway, key point here: the organization making that decision does give confidence. Back to the consistency and commitment issues.
For tomorrow's matches, I'm definite on the Swans line, very likely on the Pies -11.5, likely on Roos, on the fence with Adelaide.
Anyone have a view on these matches (or others)? Here are my hesitations for each match:
Pies: too many injuries? Saints will bring the effort and have the talent to keep this close and outright win.
Roos: a lot of points to lay with this team after 2 straight victories facing a team coming off the most embarrassing loss of the season (because it was the Bombers)
Crows: I can see how the model and the market has these teams ranked roughly the same, and Tigers will be desperate. But man, Crows offense and accuracy are leagues above the Tigers. I can't see how the Tiges could keep the Crows in check and all of the sudden score well, but I know they have the talent and ability to do it. We've seen it before.
Good luck this weekend, and more tomorrow.
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