Posted:
#1
Happy Tuesday Gents,
Pretty good Prelim Finals round, though of course I got bitten by the temptation on taking Eagles laying that many goals. Fortunately, it went south enough, early enough, that Eagles -3.5 was on offer. But that (relatively) poor display by them is one of many factors that have me fully backing the Hawks line.
Frankly, I'm stunned the line is < 2 goals. The only way that makes sense to me is that the public is behind the Eagles (thus far). But I'm hoping some of you can shed more light.
For me, as I've shared before recently, the Hawks have "woken up". Yes, they've been more unpredictable this year in their wins, style of wins, timing, etc. And I'm still net negative on the season due to the Hawks. But, in the context of their recent success, the physical toll a season takes, etc, you can't fault them for how they got here and when and how they lost or didn't cover. The fact is, they are back. And they are deserved favorites.
This is the monologue going on in my head right now: better regular season record against top 8 teams; experience and familiarity of players vs. youth and inexperience at the highest levels (the coach is publicly calling his players to steel their nerves; admitted on The Couch just now that they were too relaxed for Roos match; significant coaching advantage; home ground for Hawks.
The only significant doubt I had about a Hawks' victory was the level of commitment they would bring (because it hasn't been consistent, shockingly). The Eagles loss woke them up. Hodge is once again leading the pack and bringing a physical intensity that, when executed across the team, simply can't be matched by the competition right now.
I'm going big on the line, with some recovery on the win, but net large exposure. That's how confident I am in a 2+ goal victory.
Oh, and yes, Tin is calling the same outcome, as you now know.
I know the Hawks can lose this one - that's the beauty of sports: anything can happen in a given match. But outside of the random variables, how do the Eagles once again defeat the Hawks? And btw: historically across these competitive sports (AFL, NFL, etc.), the loser wins the re-match with equally-competitive teams.
Pretty good Prelim Finals round, though of course I got bitten by the temptation on taking Eagles laying that many goals. Fortunately, it went south enough, early enough, that Eagles -3.5 was on offer. But that (relatively) poor display by them is one of many factors that have me fully backing the Hawks line.
Frankly, I'm stunned the line is < 2 goals. The only way that makes sense to me is that the public is behind the Eagles (thus far). But I'm hoping some of you can shed more light.
For me, as I've shared before recently, the Hawks have "woken up". Yes, they've been more unpredictable this year in their wins, style of wins, timing, etc. And I'm still net negative on the season due to the Hawks. But, in the context of their recent success, the physical toll a season takes, etc, you can't fault them for how they got here and when and how they lost or didn't cover. The fact is, they are back. And they are deserved favorites.
This is the monologue going on in my head right now: better regular season record against top 8 teams; experience and familiarity of players vs. youth and inexperience at the highest levels (the coach is publicly calling his players to steel their nerves; admitted on The Couch just now that they were too relaxed for Roos match; significant coaching advantage; home ground for Hawks.
The only significant doubt I had about a Hawks' victory was the level of commitment they would bring (because it hasn't been consistent, shockingly). The Eagles loss woke them up. Hodge is once again leading the pack and bringing a physical intensity that, when executed across the team, simply can't be matched by the competition right now.
I'm going big on the line, with some recovery on the win, but net large exposure. That's how confident I am in a 2+ goal victory.
Oh, and yes, Tin is calling the same outcome, as you now know.
I know the Hawks can lose this one - that's the beauty of sports: anything can happen in a given match. But outside of the random variables, how do the Eagles once again defeat the Hawks? And btw: historically across these competitive sports (AFL, NFL, etc.), the loser wins the re-match with equally-competitive teams.
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