Posted:
#1
m having difficulties getting a feel for these match-ups, too. Although I lean Roos to win, so will likely take them as a dog.
Cursory thoughts to date for me...
Hawthorn v. Adelaide
Hawks will win this, but boy does 22+ make me uneasy with this team. On the one hand, they haven't gone consecutive weeks with a loss in the ATS column. Crows are 5 straight ATS wins, which indicates a fall back in the near future. Hawks have more experience, and will bring the (notably much-less-reliable of late) focus needed to win by a few goals or more imo. Also, Tin has them winning by 29 pts, which is the "magic" margin historically for a high percentage of win chance. On the other hand, Hawks only beat Crows by 29 in Rd 12 (when Crows were not playing nearly as well) and these two teams' recent history has margins of close to or less than 22. Crows playing with momentum, confidence and energy, Hawks seem to have more hesitancy and less confidence/belief in themselves. Perhaps most importantly, it feels like the Crows want it more, and Hawks aren't quite as committed to these finals (last week's display a prime example). Finally, Crows have more talent.. Hope to hear from others on their thoughts here as I keep flipping side/side.
Sydney v. North Melbourne
Swans put on a gallant display last week, and brought all of the gusto that I feared had gone for good this season (and bet accordingly, lol). However, one more man out for this week. Still, they should be favored due to overall talent and experience. But I like the Roos as 10.5 dogs and will play that one here. Momentum, desire, belief, energy, rest are all in their favor. ANZ stadium isn't exactly "home" for the Swans either. Finally, not having an effective forward attack can be exploited with planning, and I think it will be here. Roos pull the "upset".
Cursory thoughts to date for me...
Hawthorn v. Adelaide
Hawks will win this, but boy does 22+ make me uneasy with this team. On the one hand, they haven't gone consecutive weeks with a loss in the ATS column. Crows are 5 straight ATS wins, which indicates a fall back in the near future. Hawks have more experience, and will bring the (notably much-less-reliable of late) focus needed to win by a few goals or more imo. Also, Tin has them winning by 29 pts, which is the "magic" margin historically for a high percentage of win chance. On the other hand, Hawks only beat Crows by 29 in Rd 12 (when Crows were not playing nearly as well) and these two teams' recent history has margins of close to or less than 22. Crows playing with momentum, confidence and energy, Hawks seem to have more hesitancy and less confidence/belief in themselves. Perhaps most importantly, it feels like the Crows want it more, and Hawks aren't quite as committed to these finals (last week's display a prime example). Finally, Crows have more talent.. Hope to hear from others on their thoughts here as I keep flipping side/side.
Sydney v. North Melbourne
Swans put on a gallant display last week, and brought all of the gusto that I feared had gone for good this season (and bet accordingly, lol). However, one more man out for this week. Still, they should be favored due to overall talent and experience. But I like the Roos as 10.5 dogs and will play that one here. Momentum, desire, belief, energy, rest are all in their favor. ANZ stadium isn't exactly "home" for the Swans either. Finally, not having an effective forward attack can be exploited with planning, and I think it will be here. Roos pull the "upset".
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