AFL Rd 17

Opening shop early again.

1st play just locked:

4Q Line WCE -1.5

Since Rd 9 average 4Q margin -22.

Only game I kinda like is Cats to beat GWS

and after seeing it eagles -6.5 over swans. Everyone will be expecting swans to bounce back blah blah, not going to happen against eagles in Perth. I like this line a lot

Buddy, agree 100% on Eagles/Swans... line has been climbing.

Just locked -8.5 on that line.

Don't know about Cats... too unpredictable for. Line has come in, supporting your line. Since Giants are at home, I'd back them if i play it.

I think the richmond freo game will seesaw a bit, so hope to play that live.

Agree with your plays.
Swans are a joke, their game plan of "bomb it to buddy" just isnt the way to play the game these days.
Interesting to note that the game in which they kicked their second highest score, buddy wasnt playing

Also really liking Richmond -1.5.

Yeah, thinking of taking them 1H.

Any idea why line moved by a goal?

There are these guys who call themselves the punting pros who have an AFL model and make massive bets (most online bookies have banned them) they won 20 units last year.
Basically their plays that they sell move the lines.

what you guys think adelaide -28.5.  gc is bad team.  

Richmond 1H ML..

Hey Target, line feels about right in Adelaide game. Don't see much value there.

Thanks River, just seeing your answer now on those punters.

One of good punters says charton under 64.5 totals.  Its not me.  Keep on eye.  

Hi all,

GL Peekay.

I really like the Doggies line, too, and will probably play it.

And I'm re-looking at Crows line too. The model i get each week (statistician) says it's a good play (it's been wrong plenty).

Crows will be too good but when you bet against Ablett it's never a good thing. 

Good point on Selwood and Duncan's good performance. I'll have another look at it.

I wouldn't touch GWS Cats game.
Too hard to get a read on these teams.
Keep waiting for GWS to fall from grace and they really look like it at times, but then bounce back.
Geelong have been hapless this year.... But could deliver on their day.

Congrats Peekay, will tail you on your next play.

Port -6.5 live bet.

Port ML

port -20.5

Nothing I love tomorrow. Eagles not much value unless you want to take them at -7.5 for $1.50

Saints don't play MCG that well and Dees don't mind it, but I still think Saints get the win here.

I like Dogs for value with Cloke and Elliot both out but players like Pendlebury and Swan are better than anyone Dogs have so you never know.

Nothing stands out like crazy so I think they are no plays, but if you are keen for a bet then there's my writeup.

BOL IN WHATEVER YOU CHOOSE

Eagles -7.5
Dogs ML
Saints ML

Agree on all 3 mate, already have a few on Eagles. Not sure if I'll pull trigger on other two. Think i have more confidence in Saints. Melbourne just can't score

BTW, what was Wagles -7.5 paying yesterday? Just curious...

Took Saints -1.5 and the Under 158.5 in that game. Lean Pies, but not playing it.

BOL fellas.

Paying 1.50

I like saints too, but like the over, weather in Melbourne pretty good, both teams not great defensively