Been impressed with him and i think he has the potential to improve as the season goes on. Although with 3,3,5 and 5, if he just keeps up this pace you would think 88 would be v close to winning it . Has the advantage over the favourites fevolution and franklin that he is generally regarded as the second best forward.
Fremantle to miss top 8 $1.90 2u
If you lose at home to Richmond by 10 goals who can you expect to beat?
Along with many others I have often looked at the fremantle list and said how can they not play better, but i now see it as pretty much old, tired and has been. Carr brothers, Headland, Grover, Sandilands and Soliman are looking yesterday and players like Peake, Crowley and Schammer have not continued to improve.
Even if they start trying and playing to their potential I am not sure this will be good enough to get them in the finals:
If you assume you need they win 12 to make the top 8, given they have already trashed their percentage, you have to be fairly optimistic to find 11 wins out of this schedule for mine. Even if you are generous enough to given them 7 out of 9 at home, they would have to win 4/9 on the road. Personally I think the prob of this is in the miracle range not 45%.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 13-13 +1.3u
Played a couple of futures:
Bradshaw to win Coleman medal $11 1u
Been impressed with him and i think he has the potential to improve as the season goes on. Although with 3,3,5 and 5, if he just keeps up this pace you would think 88 would be v close to winning it . Has the advantage over the favourites fevolution and franklin that he is generally regarded as the second best forward.
Fremantle to miss top 8 $1.90 2u
If you lose at home to Richmond by 10 goals who can you expect to beat?
Along with many others I have often looked at the fremantle list and said how can they not play better, but i now see it as pretty much old, tired and has been. Carr brothers, Headland, Grover, Sandilands and Soliman are looking yesterday and players like Peake, Crowley and Schammer have not continued to improve.
Even if they start trying and playing to their potential I am not sure this will be good enough to get them in the finals:
If you assume you need they win 12 to make the top 8, given they have already trashed their percentage, you have to be fairly optimistic to find 11 wins out of this schedule for mine. Even if you are generous enough to given them 7 out of 9 at home, they would have to win 4/9 on the road. Personally I think the prob of this is in the miracle range not 45%.
Adelaide Away AAMI Stadium Melbourne Away MCG Carlton Away Telstra Dome Brisbane Lions Away Gabba St. Kilda Away Telstra Dome Geelong Away Skilled Stadium Port Adelaide Away AAMI Stadium Sydney Away SCG Richmond Away MCG Geelong Home Subiaco Western Bulldogs Home Subiaco Port Adelaide Home Subiaco North Melbourne Home Subiaco Essendon Home Subiaco Melbourne Home Subiaco West Coast Home Subiaco St. Kilda Home Subiaco Collingwood Home Subiaco
Adelaide Away AAMI Stadium Melbourne Away MCG Carlton Away Telstra Dome Brisbane Lions Away Gabba St. Kilda Away Telstra Dome Geelong Away Skilled Stadium Port Adelaide Away AAMI Stadium Sydney Away SCG Richmond Away MCG Geelong Home Subiaco Western Bulldogs Home Subiaco Port Adelaide Home Subiaco North Melbourne Home Subiaco Essendon Home Subiaco Melbourne Home Subiaco West Coast Home Subiaco St. Kilda Home Subiaco Collingwood Home Subiaco
good luck binomial with all your picks..i noticed that before the season freo got given a tough schedule was thinking before the season to take them to make the 8 but then saw there schedule and stayed away.
good luck binomial with all your picks..i noticed that before the season freo got given a tough schedule was thinking before the season to take them to make the 8 but then saw there schedule and stayed away.
Fremantle side looks a bit of a mish mash on paper too me - new players, out of form players brought back in, players playing in unusual positions.
Even if they try harder, the Adelaide side looks very settled and solid to me.
Naive triangle suggests Adelaide by 10 goals:
Fremantle beat WC by 2 goals, Adelaide beat WC by 12 goals =
Adelaide beat Fremantle in Adelaide by 10 goals.
St Kilda -18.5 1u
Played this yesterday and not overly keen on it today. I think St Kilda will struggle against the best quick running high pressure teams - Geelong, WB and Hawthorn. However, I think they will get their act together against most of the other teams.
Essendon is now playing fairly quick but with their injuries I think St Kilda might handl them.
Adding:
Adelaide -17.5 2.5u
Fremantle side looks a bit of a mish mash on paper too me - new players, out of form players brought back in, players playing in unusual positions.
Even if they try harder, the Adelaide side looks very settled and solid to me.
Naive triangle suggests Adelaide by 10 goals:
Fremantle beat WC by 2 goals, Adelaide beat WC by 12 goals =
Adelaide beat Fremantle in Adelaide by 10 goals.
St Kilda -18.5 1u
Played this yesterday and not overly keen on it today. I think St Kilda will struggle against the best quick running high pressure teams - Geelong, WB and Hawthorn. However, I think they will get their act together against most of the other teams.
Essendon is now playing fairly quick but with their injuries I think St Kilda might handl them.
Geelong v Sydney seems a tricky game to me. Money has been for Sydney but I think the line is about right. Betting that Sydney won't get smashed but aren't good enough to beat Geelong at home seems fairly attractive to me.
I have added Adelaide and Western Bulldogs ML. Even if Fremantle try hard I don't think they have the team to beat Adelaide. I can't see Adelaide taking this lightly as if they lose they will be 2-3, plus they lost both games to Fremantle last season. WB in a different league for mine and a 9 day break vs Richmond who played the late game in WA should mean that dogs will be coming home stronger if it is close.
Western Bulldogs ML $1.45 2u
Western Bulldogs -17.5 $1.95 1.5u
Above reasons, plus WB pressure has been among the best this season. Richmond have several young players whose skill level is fairly ordinairy at the best of times.
Richmond winning one game against a side who disgraced themselves doesn't have me very excited. It was only the week before when they themselves played embarrissingly badly against Collingwood. Even if they try hard i believe WB have too much skill and run.
North Melbourne +7.5 $1.95 1u
Collingwood have done very well introducinig young players but i think losing three highly respected leaders in Buckley, Clement and Licuria makes them a weaker side than last year, even though these players didn't play a great number of matches.
While they have looked pretty impressive at times, their results so far seem to suggest they are not a top 6 team to me. Beating Fremantle at home and Richmond who played poorly while losing to Brisbane and Carlton suggest they have work to do if they want to make the 8.
North's results have been lacklustre as well only beating Melbourne and Richmond. However, they showed a fair bit against Hawthorn before running out of steam in the last quarter.
Not much between the two but I think NM should be a slight favourite.
The 'throwing money away betting multis full of favourites' multi of the week:
Adelaide
Hawthorn
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
Port
$9.22 0.5u
Adding:
Multi:
Geelong 1-40
Adelaide ML
Western Bulldogs ML
$4.41 1u
Geelong v Sydney seems a tricky game to me. Money has been for Sydney but I think the line is about right. Betting that Sydney won't get smashed but aren't good enough to beat Geelong at home seems fairly attractive to me.
I have added Adelaide and Western Bulldogs ML. Even if Fremantle try hard I don't think they have the team to beat Adelaide. I can't see Adelaide taking this lightly as if they lose they will be 2-3, plus they lost both games to Fremantle last season. WB in a different league for mine and a 9 day break vs Richmond who played the late game in WA should mean that dogs will be coming home stronger if it is close.
Western Bulldogs ML $1.45 2u
Western Bulldogs -17.5 $1.95 1.5u
Above reasons, plus WB pressure has been among the best this season. Richmond have several young players whose skill level is fairly ordinairy at the best of times.
Richmond winning one game against a side who disgraced themselves doesn't have me very excited. It was only the week before when they themselves played embarrissingly badly against Collingwood. Even if they try hard i believe WB have too much skill and run.
North Melbourne +7.5 $1.95 1u
Collingwood have done very well introducinig young players but i think losing three highly respected leaders in Buckley, Clement and Licuria makes them a weaker side than last year, even though these players didn't play a great number of matches.
While they have looked pretty impressive at times, their results so far seem to suggest they are not a top 6 team to me. Beating Fremantle at home and Richmond who played poorly while losing to Brisbane and Carlton suggest they have work to do if they want to make the 8.
North's results have been lacklustre as well only beating Melbourne and Richmond. However, they showed a fair bit against Hawthorn before running out of steam in the last quarter.
Not much between the two but I think NM should be a slight favourite.
The 'throwing money away betting multis full of favourites' multi of the week:
I think Carlton are on the improve and will be competitive against most teams with some bad games thrown in.
With Judd and Stevens hitting their straps last week I would suggest Carlton have four A grade players (A grade being the top 50) in Judd, Fevola, Waite and Stevens, with Stevens being marginal. They also have a large number of second tier mid fielders who are playing fairly well in Murphy,Carrazo, Gibbs, Simpson, Hadley and Betts. Kreuzer looks a star of the future.
There defence has been their weakness even though they have three quality players back there in Thornton, Waite and Scotland. I think improvement in the midfield will help this situation somewhat.
If Melbourne play as badly as last week I think they will lose by plenty. If they try hard I still think they will be outclassed. After not winning for 14 games Carlton with a win would be 2-3 and in amongst it. I don't think they will take this game lightly.
Adding:
Carlton -19.5 $1.95 1u
I think Carlton are on the improve and will be competitive against most teams with some bad games thrown in.
With Judd and Stevens hitting their straps last week I would suggest Carlton have four A grade players (A grade being the top 50) in Judd, Fevola, Waite and Stevens, with Stevens being marginal. They also have a large number of second tier mid fielders who are playing fairly well in Murphy,Carrazo, Gibbs, Simpson, Hadley and Betts. Kreuzer looks a star of the future.
There defence has been their weakness even though they have three quality players back there in Thornton, Waite and Scotland. I think improvement in the midfield will help this situation somewhat.
If Melbourne play as badly as last week I think they will lose by plenty. If they try hard I still think they will be outclassed. After not winning for 14 games Carlton with a win would be 2-3 and in amongst it. I don't think they will take this game lightly.
I think Carlton are on the improve and will be competitive against most teams with some bad games thrown in.
With Judd and Stevens hitting their straps last week I would suggest Carlton have four A grade players (A grade being the top 50) in Judd, Fevola, Waite and Stevens, with Stevens being marginal. They also have a large number of second tier mid fielders who are playing fairly well in Murphy,Carrazo, Gibbs, Simpson, Hadley and Betts. Kreuzer looks a star of the future.
There defence has been their weakness even though they have three quality players back there in Thornton, Waite and Scotland. I think improvement in the midfield will help this situation somewhat.
If Melbourne play as badly as last week I think they will lose by plenty. If they try hard I still think they will be outclassed. After not winning for 14 games Carlton with a win would be 2-3 and in amongst it. I don't think they will take this game lightly.
Great writeup, couldn't agree more. Ithink it should be a big win. Carlton's defence should hold up, they have the upperhand in matchups. Scotland/Robertson, Thornton/Neitz. The lesser likes on the Melb forward line, while they could pinch a goal or two certainly aren't match winners. I think Carlton holds an edge over the erst of the ground too. GL
Quote Originally Posted by binomial:
Adding:
Carlton -19.5 $1.95 1u
I think Carlton are on the improve and will be competitive against most teams with some bad games thrown in.
With Judd and Stevens hitting their straps last week I would suggest Carlton have four A grade players (A grade being the top 50) in Judd, Fevola, Waite and Stevens, with Stevens being marginal. They also have a large number of second tier mid fielders who are playing fairly well in Murphy,Carrazo, Gibbs, Simpson, Hadley and Betts. Kreuzer looks a star of the future.
There defence has been their weakness even though they have three quality players back there in Thornton, Waite and Scotland. I think improvement in the midfield will help this situation somewhat.
If Melbourne play as badly as last week I think they will lose by plenty. If they try hard I still think they will be outclassed. After not winning for 14 games Carlton with a win would be 2-3 and in amongst it. I don't think they will take this game lightly.
Great writeup, couldn't agree more. Ithink it should be a big win. Carlton's defence should hold up, they have the upperhand in matchups. Scotland/Robertson, Thornton/Neitz. The lesser likes on the Melb forward line, while they could pinch a goal or two certainly aren't match winners. I think Carlton holds an edge over the erst of the ground too. GL
- Adelaide playing a lacklustre second half and failing to cover by a half
- Geelong running over Sydney in the final few minutes and
- ordinairy outing by the Bulldogs
prevented me having a big round, although Bulldogs jagging a draw got my multi up at lesser odds and according to my calculations I finished up 4.7 units for the round.
YTD: 19-16 +6u
- Adelaide playing a lacklustre second half and failing to cover by a half
- Geelong running over Sydney in the final few minutes and
- ordinairy outing by the Bulldogs
prevented me having a big round, although Bulldogs jagging a draw got my multi up at lesser odds and according to my calculations I finished up 4.7 units for the round.
well done binomial
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