AFL Ggand Final

Being a guy from Melbourne i actually don't follow the footy but i'm liking:


Hawthorn SU/ -7.5

As i understand in the last 5 meetings Hawks are 4-1 vs Fremantle since 2010 & have won by an average of 37.5 pts. Since then there may have been some players shuffle that i'm obviously not aware of since i don't watch the sport. I like to bet on the team that played in the finals the year prior & lost - even better spo when that same team are on top of the ladder the season after. They will be hungrier and more determined. They lost by just 10 pts last yr to Geelong. while this will be Fremantles first finals if i'm not mistaken.

Under 166.5

Fremantle have only given up 100 pts twice this season. Though one of those times was against the Hawks the Grand Finals is a far more different stage & the game may be much tighter. Fremantle are obviously very defensive minded. Weather will also be a factor w/ predictions of a wet one wich will be nice for the Under. In their last 5 games the total has been 175.4 so about 9 pts differential. Fremantle average around 67 pts vs Hawks & Hawks 107  vs Dockers - that's 174. Take in the weather, Fremantle playing their 1st Grand final game (am i correct?) & the Grand Final atmosphere & could be a good spot for the Under.


Agai, no expert & you're probably snickering @ me. That's what i'm leaning atm either way   What you thinkin' gents!

just something i looked into quickly about the team who played & lost in the finals the season prior playing again the following year - here's the numbers for how those teams whent in this spot:

Since 1980: the team who played & lost in the finals the year prior 7 are again in the finals are 7-4.

Since 1950-1979: 8-1

Since 1897-1949: 11-7


So that's: 26-12

I added up roughly. give or take 3-4 errors....would be 26-16 if so. Still not too bad.


Just something to think about i guess wich backs up the strategy and my beliefs. Fremantle being first timers is a bit of a bonus in this spot also.

I also like experience. Especially finals battles tested vets:

5. Predictably, Hawthorn players have far more Grand Final experience than their opponents. There are 23 Hawks-listed players who have played in at least one Grand Final, with 10 having played in two or more. The Dockers have only two players who have played in a Grand Final: Dawson, who played in three with St Kilda, and Danyle Pearce, who played in Port Adelaide’s 2007 loss. Both coaches will be coaching in their third Grand Final.

Hawks SU

line & total double:

Hawthorn & Under 166.5

3q:

Hawthorn SU
Under 39.5

2h:

Hawthorn SU

2h:

Under 79.5