AFL FINALS WK 1

AFL Finals Week 1

Looking forward to a great finals series, although to be honest it doesn’t hold as much interest to me as it did last year.  I think Geelong should have it all sewn up at this stage as they are also pretty much at full strength now.  Personally, over the last 3 years finals series I’ve only lost about 5 bets in total so hopefully the good run of post season success continues this year. 

Hawthorn/Western Bulldogs

An interesting game but I think perhaps not a good betting game.  It is hard to judge the doggies lately, their form hasn’t been great and perhaps they took their foot off the pedal leading up to the finals knowing they’d have 3^rd spot in the bag… dangerous if that is the case.  Anyhow, I think if the Doggies player well they can win this but I think the line is just about right at -18.5 to the hawks.  I couldn’t pick a side either way here with any great confidence so I’ll pass tonight.  If I was to take anything here, it would be the doggies plus the points.

Adelaide/Collingwood

Hmm… Collingwood’s form has not been good, but they are capable of stepping it up and applying good finals pressure.  Adelaide more than capable of handling it and strong at home, really hard to predict this one and considering I have not had much success against the line either way in Collingwood games over the last few years, I’ll pass on this one too.  Lean would be on the Crows getting home win but line pretty close.  I suspect this will be a low scoring affair, if the total is anything above 180 then I suggest you get on the under.

Sydney/Kangaroos

I wouldn’t read too much into last weeks huge loss to the Power, Kangaroos have been consistent all season and rarely put up a showing like they did last week.  I doubt we will see such a show two weeks in a row, they will be more than competitive here and Sydney’s form has been nothing to write home about recently.  Perhaps the Kangaroos just didn’t want to play Geelong in the first week in finals as last year they lost that meeting by 100+ points.  Take the points. 

Kangaroos +5.5

Geelong/St.Kilda

Well done to the Saints on making the top 4, also thanks for a couple of the teams that should have made that spot falling over in the last week or two of the season.  The fact here however is, Geelong is far superior to this Saints outfit and they are virtually at full strength.  Geelong has been a covering machine all season and no reason we shouldn’t get on them again here.  I was at the last Geelong/St.Kilda game, Geelong won by 42 points and that was before they hit their straps.  They should win this by 60 plus.  I do hope the ruck contest is a little friendlier this time however; King served Geelong well and deserves respect.  Blake who is probably still upset to have been dropped in last year’s grand final for King.  Take the cats and don’t think twice about it.

Geelong -32.5

No they weren't but many lessons learned, plus the fact they actually played finals last year.  Correct on the midfield, but the weak links around the ground favour the Hawks as they are the strongest