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    All Forums | Other

    AFL 2014 (Round 4+)

    AFLGuru
    eddiegray
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    Posted: Apr. 7, 2014 - 9:24 PM ET #1

    Going to keep to the one thread from now on.

    Extremely early lean that I am locking in:

    Essendon ML (5 units).

    Will explain why soon once I have updated lines.
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Going to keep to the one thread from now on.

    Extremely early lean that I am locking in:

    Essendon ML (5 units).

    Will explain why soon once I have updated lines.
     
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    Posted: Apr. 10, 2014 - 4:20 AM ET #2

    When I placed this bet, Essendon were $2.25 Dogs, and +4.5 on the line. They are now PK favourites so read that one right hopefully.

    Early learn for tomorrow night will be Collingwood against a Richmond side waning early in the season.


    Reply
    When I placed this bet, Essendon were $2.25 Dogs, and +4.5 on the line. They are now PK favourites so read that one right hopefully.

    Early learn for tomorrow night will be Collingwood against a Richmond side waning early in the season.


     
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    Posted: Apr. 10, 2014 - 10:19 PM ET #3

    Richmond v Collingwood

    Both teams find themselves in a predicament so far this season. Off the back of a drought, finals returned to Richmond last year and even though they fell short, everyone was excited by what they saw.

    So far this season, that tenacity hasn't shown. 

    The same could be said about Collingwood, however they have been the much better team out of the two. They narrowly lost to Geelong last week in a match they could have easily won. Jamie Elliot being the stand out performer.

    I cannot see Richmond being competitive tonight. I don't see it being a game under 15 points either, so I'll be taking the Pies.

    I expect Swan to have a big game off the back of heavy criticism as of late.

    I am on Collingwood on the line (-8.5) for 4 units.
    Reply
    Richmond v Collingwood

    Both teams find themselves in a predicament so far this season. Off the back of a drought, finals returned to Richmond last year and even though they fell short, everyone was excited by what they saw.

    So far this season, that tenacity hasn't shown. 

    The same could be said about Collingwood, however they have been the much better team out of the two. They narrowly lost to Geelong last week in a match they could have easily won. Jamie Elliot being the stand out performer.

    I cannot see Richmond being competitive tonight. I don't see it being a game under 15 points either, so I'll be taking the Pies.

    I expect Swan to have a big game off the back of heavy criticism as of late.

    I am on Collingwood on the line (-8.5) for 4 units.
     
    AFLGuru
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 8:25 AM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:



    I am on Collingwood on the line (-8.5) for 4 units.


    Nice win by the Pies :) 

    Now ...
    Singles (14-6 +19.5u)
    Multi's (1-5 +13.87)

    Be back tomorrow for more

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:



    I am on Collingwood on the line (-8.5) for 4 units.


    Nice win by the Pies :) 

    Now ...
    Singles (14-6 +19.5u)
    Multi's (1-5 +13.87)

    Be back tomorrow for more

     
    eddiegray
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 11:07 PM ET #5

    Thanks AFL Guru  I tailed you on that Collingwood play
    Reply
    Thanks AFL Guru  I tailed you on that Collingwood play
     
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 1:35 AM ET #6

    @ Manilla - I know mate. Lost all value after the first three goals. 

    @ Eddie  Thanks for the feedback that you tailed mate! 

    Reply
    @ Manilla - I know mate. Lost all value after the first three goals. 

    @ Eddie  Thanks for the feedback that you tailed mate! 

     
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 1:40 AM ET #7

    Small play on Western Bulldogs @ -9.5 today. Both at a neutral oval for GWS and WB, and as good as GWS start to the season has been, I feel the quality of Griffen, Cooney, Gian and Boyd will be too good.

    Might be one of the last chances we get such a nice ATS line as well if GWS go back to being semi-blown out as they begin to play more competitive teams. I consider WB to be somewhat one of these teams.

    I'll be playing on Western Bulldogs on the line (-9.5) for 2 units.
    Reply
    Small play on Western Bulldogs @ -9.5 today. Both at a neutral oval for GWS and WB, and as good as GWS start to the season has been, I feel the quality of Griffen, Cooney, Gian and Boyd will be too good.

    Might be one of the last chances we get such a nice ATS line as well if GWS go back to being semi-blown out as they begin to play more competitive teams. I consider WB to be somewhat one of these teams.

    I'll be playing on Western Bulldogs on the line (-9.5) for 2 units.
     
    eddiegray
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 1:58 AM ET #8

    I will tail you again, but im playing the Western Bulldogs moneyline and im also playing the West Coast Eagles +31.5. Any thoughts on that one Guru
    Reply
    I will tail you again, but im playing the Western Bulldogs moneyline and im also playing the West Coast Eagles +31.5. Any thoughts on that one Guru
     
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 2:24 AM ET #9

    No play on the West Coast game mate. I hate Geelong on anything about covering 4 goal spreads. With the Eagles out's, they *should* cover, but Geelong are always just happy with the win, and never the margin.

    I was angry I didn't grab them early in the week when they were -24.5. So anything above this is a no play for me as West Coast could keep it within a 30 point margin.

    Hard to call mate. I'll probably play the Hawks line instead of the Cats.
    Reply
    No play on the West Coast game mate. I hate Geelong on anything about covering 4 goal spreads. With the Eagles out's, they *should* cover, but Geelong are always just happy with the win, and never the margin.

    I was angry I didn't grab them early in the week when they were -24.5. So anything above this is a no play for me as West Coast could keep it within a 30 point margin.

    Hard to call mate. I'll probably play the Hawks line instead of the Cats.
     
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 5:16 AM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:

     
    I'll be playing on Western Bulldogs on the line (-9.5) for 2 units.

    Good hard fought competitive game. GWS ran out of legs at the end and the elders stood up for the doggies.

    Singles (15-6 +21.5u)
    Multi's (1-5 +13.87)
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:

     
    I'll be playing on Western Bulldogs on the line (-9.5) for 2 units.

    Good hard fought competitive game. GWS ran out of legs at the end and the elders stood up for the doggies.

    Singles (15-6 +21.5u)
    Multi's (1-5 +13.87)
     
    eddiegray
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 5:17 AM ET #11

    Reply
     
    eddiegray
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 6:49 AM ET #12

    Manilla was right
    Reply
    Manilla was right
     
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 8:39 AM ET #13

    Tough luck all around guys. I didn't have any official plays but like I said, with the west coast outs, cats should have covered and did. Close game at the end of the first! Thought the eagles were in it.

    Hawks easily covered as well which I was always leaning before the cats.

    Main play for tomorrow is what I locked in at the start of the week when Essendon were dogs. 
    Reply
    Tough luck all around guys. I didn't have any official plays but like I said, with the west coast outs, cats should have covered and did. Close game at the end of the first! Thought the eagles were in it.

    Hawks easily covered as well which I was always leaning before the cats.

    Main play for tomorrow is what I locked in at the start of the week when Essendon were dogs. 
     
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 10:13 PM ET #14

    I'm adding an early afternoon play.

    North Melbourne v Sydney

    A lot of love has been shown all week for the Kangaroos. Throughout the media and especially through Kangaroos legend Brent Harvey, they believe they have a strong chance to stop the voodoo of limited success at the SCG against the Swans.

    But something's don't change.

    The Swans won 7 of 9 games last year at the SCG with the 2 narrow losses coming from a very high scoring affair against Geelong and a spirited Fremantle side who went on of course to play in the Grand Final.

    I believe the line is being extremely generous, especially when it started as high as -18.5 this week.

    I understand the Swans line up has changed, but they regained some mojo last week against the Crows. Buddy Franklin seems to be adjusting to his role with his new team and I see this as an excellent opportunity for the Swans to get a relatively straight forward 2nd victory of the season. Swans fans will be out in force to support their team.

    I will be playing on the Sydney Swans on the line (-13.5) for 3 units.
    Reply
    I'm adding an early afternoon play.

    North Melbourne v Sydney

    A lot of love has been shown all week for the Kangaroos. Throughout the media and especially through Kangaroos legend Brent Harvey, they believe they have a strong chance to stop the voodoo of limited success at the SCG against the Swans.

    But something's don't change.

    The Swans won 7 of 9 games last year at the SCG with the 2 narrow losses coming from a very high scoring affair against Geelong and a spirited Fremantle side who went on of course to play in the Grand Final.

    I believe the line is being extremely generous, especially when it started as high as -18.5 this week.

    I understand the Swans line up has changed, but they regained some mojo last week against the Crows. Buddy Franklin seems to be adjusting to his role with his new team and I see this as an excellent opportunity for the Swans to get a relatively straight forward 2nd victory of the season. Swans fans will be out in force to support their team.

    I will be playing on the Sydney Swans on the line (-13.5) for 3 units.
     
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2014 - 12:19 AM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:

    Swans drew to Freo last year so they only lost 1 of their last 9.    

    I consider that a loss on home turf :) Silly I know.

    Ugly wet conditions hurting this Sydney's chance here.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:

    Swans drew to Freo last year so they only lost 1 of their last 9.    

    I consider that a loss on home turf :) Silly I know.

    Ugly wet conditions hurting this Sydney's chance here.
     
    Enjoi
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2014 - 12:26 AM ET #16

    Are you still confident in the Dons even without Fetcher and Chapman? The line is sh!t house right now at -2.5 for Essendon but might still take it considering Freo are missing key players too
    Reply
    Are you still confident in the Dons even without Fetcher and Chapman? The line is sh!t house right now at -2.5 for Essendon but might still take it considering Freo are missing key players too
     
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2014 - 2:06 AM ET #17

    Unbelievably bad game by the Swans. Buddy had his chances but made bad decisions. How he stuffed up that 55m out kick by taking too much time summed up his performance today.

    I very confident in the Bombers bet today. Have added an additional unit which I never normally do. 6 units on Essendon.
    Reply
    Unbelievably bad game by the Swans. Buddy had his chances but made bad decisions. How he stuffed up that 55m out kick by taking too much time summed up his performance today.

    I very confident in the Bombers bet today. Have added an additional unit which I never normally do. 6 units on Essendon.
     
    Enjoi
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2014 - 2:36 AM ET #18

    Okay you've convinced me buddy. Got 4 units on it, let's get paid 
    Reply
    Okay you've convinced me buddy. Got 4 units on it, let's get paid 
     
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2014 - 2:36 AM ET #19

    Okay you've convinced me buddy. Got 4 units on it, let's get paid 
    Reply
    Okay you've convinced me buddy. Got 4 units on it, let's get paid 
     
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2014 - 3:45 AM ET #20

    I have no idea why Essendon played Goddard even with the slightest problem present before game time. Myers an extremely late out hasn't helped.

    Need a similar second half to last year for the Bombers to drag themselves over the line.
    Reply
    I have no idea why Essendon played Goddard even with the slightest problem present before game time. Myers an extremely late out hasn't helped.

    Need a similar second half to last year for the Bombers to drag themselves over the line.
     
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2014 - 4:12 AM ET #21

    Doesn't look too good atm but only 3 goals behind and lots of time left
    Reply
    Doesn't look too good atm but only 3 goals behind and lots of time left
     
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2014 - 4:42 AM ET #22

    Absolutely horrible quarter by the bombers. Might leave them for a couple of weeks now. The news about Myers wasn't known until game time and they certainly missed Goddard's leadership.

    No excuses, Fremantle the better of the injured sides on the day. Essendon has become my Achilles heel this season.
    Reply
    Absolutely horrible quarter by the bombers. Might leave them for a couple of weeks now. The news about Myers wasn't known until game time and they certainly missed Goddard's leadership.

    No excuses, Fremantle the better of the injured sides on the day. Essendon has become my Achilles heel this season.
     
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2014 - 5:21 AM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:

    33 degrees in Perth today so as soon as I knew the bombers were down a man in rotation I jumped on. Thought about it again at HT but didn't pull the trigger.

    The issue for me wasn't the heat, as they have proven themselves as an "allround condition" team. I didn't hear about Myers until the pre-game, then Goddard being played.

    Still, I don't think it would have mattered. Fremantle rebounded well and were the better of the two injured teams. 

    I will wait for two weeks before playing on them again.

    Will be looking ahead for the value on Geelong on Easter Monday....
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:

    33 degrees in Perth today so as soon as I knew the bombers were down a man in rotation I jumped on. Thought about it again at HT but didn't pull the trigger.

    The issue for me wasn't the heat, as they have proven themselves as an "allround condition" team. I didn't hear about Myers until the pre-game, then Goddard being played.

    Still, I don't think it would have mattered. Fremantle rebounded well and were the better of the two injured teams. 

    I will wait for two weeks before playing on them again.

    Will be looking ahead for the value on Geelong on Easter Monday....
     
     
    Enjoi
    Enjoi
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 2767
    Posted: Apr. 13, 2014 - 5:56 AM ET #24

    That was ugly as fark. Oh well, hope to turn things around next week.   
    Reply
    That was ugly as fark. Oh well, hope to turn things around next week.   
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