AFL - RD 17

Last round 6-9
YTD: 111-93

Gents,

It feels like Melbourne up here in Sydney at the moment, haha!

Super pumped for the game tomorrow night, which I'll be attending fortunately. Think it will be good no matter the outcome.

I must say that looking at the card for this round, not one single thing jumped out at me (and it's not just because of my awful finish last week - first impressions are not influenced by that).
Maybe it's simply because there are the fewest number of compelling match-ups we've seen in awhile, after Thursday's game. Will take some digging into.

So, for Thursday's game, I go back and forth on this one in my head.

Favouring a Hawks cover:
The teams know each other extremely well, getting a 1.5 goal line
Best coach against very good coach - knows how they need to compete (midfield, as he said)
Luke Hodge in fine form, best field general in the league
Already one loss to Swans this season - as I vaguely recall, neither team wins both, and Hawks usually crush in the 2nd one
"Everyone" seems to be on the Swans (media mostly, but also reflected in line movement)
Kurt Tippet out for Swans

Favouring Swans cover:
At SCG, and Hawks haven't played there in a while
Need a win more, having lost last home game due (mostly) to poor effort/hunger, and will be motivated as such
Hawk midfielder Liam Shiels out now
Hawks concerned less with outcome (at this point in the season) than with execution of plan (a plan that is geared toward prepping them for a flag run in Sept)

Will have to ponder this one further I think. Gut tells me Hawks cover somehow, if not the outright upset. If I play it, it will be Hawks line.

Was looking at the 1Q line for Swans, at -1.5, but see from last year that in their Rd 16 win here, Hawks crushed us in 1Q too. In fact, looking back now on 2015, striking similarities. Swans off a Loss-Win sequence coming into the home game v. Hawks (in which Hawks smashed them, though at ANZ stadium). Hawks on a ~7 game win streak (note: far more successful win streak in terms of margins of victory, with the more potent offence, including Roughhead).

I think the Swans come down a bit after an emotional win, and Hawks bring their A game to keep this within a goal if not pull the upset.

My plays: Hawks +8.5 / Under 175.5

Thanks man, and indeed it was a given. Hesitated coz I thought it might be a here-kitty line, but public must have driven it up from the get go.

Fantastic game last night, and what a finish, wow!! In the last 5 or so mins of the 4th Q, I kept saying Swans needed to get one more goal to have a two goal margin. Hawks' O is just too good.

I have to say, though, with good seats (mid-field, 2/3 the way up at SCG), I'm starting to question the viewing experience quality at the games vs. on the tele. When the ball is on the far end of the field, it's difficult to see what is going on. Unfortunately for most Swans members, the new megatron is behind us (to the right... you have to turn away from the field to get a very angled view of it, if you can see it at all).

My one time at the 'G was awesome, for Grand Final two years ago. The steepness of the seating angles seem to put you close enough (I can't recall for the megatron, but I'm guessing that's fine).

Anyone have a strong preference one way or the other? I've always assumed being there is better as you get a broader view of what's taking place. Which is true, in that you get to see the entirety of developing plays. But the downsides are there for me too.

Struggling with tonight's game now that the line is in by a full 10 points to +20.5. Should have jumped on the +31.5 with the possibility go cash out later. These teams just have a tight history. I think Cats cover this given they'll have to be switched on. On the flip side, it's hard to overcome history. Dockers have no fear of them, and will also be motivated to at least keep the game close at home after a couple of drubbings on the road.

I also like the Under 167.5, but not enough to pull the trigger yet.

My preference is to sit ground level as you get a better experience, closer to the action, louder, better atmosphere. But from a viewing perspective it is terrible; they have small TV's setup but there is actually a lag between the TV and what's happening live!!!

Freo's offence is poor, and Cats will dial up the D following past few poor efforts.

Clincher for me is Domain this season: 10-3 to the Under.

Freo v. Geelong +20.5 165.5 Domain

Play: Under 165.5

Interesting game last night. Cats are looking more vulnerable by the round as everyone around Danger continues to shrink... wow. The bookies tell us today's set of matches won't be competitive, with the smallest line at 3 goals (NM). I'll watch the Roos and Crows games - hopefully they'll be entertaining if not competitive. Let's get to it.

Richmond v. Essendon -32.5 / 180.5 / MCG
Both teams played well last week, with the Tiges young'uns shining. If it weren't for the new blood in the rotation, I'd take the Bombers and the points. Lean that way pretty heavily, but am determined not to make any lazy plays this round. :) I think I have found an angle with the total however. Last week, Tigers scored 75 against the stingy Dogs. Round 10 at the 'G was the last time Tiges game there went under 180, and that was against these Bombers (who only scored 67). The last two games in Melbourne (both Etihad), Bombers have scored 90 or more. Their offence is clearly on the rise. I see Tiges hitting 115+ and Bombers over 90.
Play: Over 180.5

NM v. Port Adelaide -17.5 / 188.5 / ES
Waite, Wells and Dal Santo back in the line up, at home, in a must win situation gets them the win by 4 goals. Those three, and the situation outweigh another desperate (but not as hopeful) and competitive team coming to play. Kinda feels like an under here, but no strong lean.
Play: Roos 1Q -4.5 / -17.5

WB v. GC -41.5 / 160.5 / Darwin ("CS")
Suns with two key midfielders out. This line has gone out by a full 10 points since Monday. This level seems to be about the right price. However, because it's in Darwin, I do lean pretty heavily to the Suns. One commentator pointed out the warmer/wetter conditions might gum up the handball-heavy Dogs' style a bit. However, Suns' injuries make me hesitate.
No lazy plays. :)

Adelaide v. Collingwood -38.5 / 185.5 / AO
Shoulda coulda woulda grabbed the opening -31.5, argh. Pies have found some form clearly, with 3 straight win-and-covers. Crows march on, looking and playing the part of the best team that Sydney and Hawthorn are. At home, they are 5-2 ATS. Liked the lower line, but this is too high in light of the fact that they beat the Roos there by 33 (covered -26.5) only 3 rounds back. Pies are playing physical enough to have a chance to keep this closer to 4-5 goals than 6-7 imho. Very tempted by the Q1 line, but not going to pull the trigger, yet. I do like the total though, and think there is some inflation there with the Pies big game last week (line has come down by 3 since Monday). Since round 6 (including round 6), 4 of 5 Crows games there have been under 180, with the Round 10 Giants game totaling higher, at 192. Pies O comes back to earth this week.
Play: Under 185.5

Good luck today if you're making plays.

Erich

WB line is out to -43.5... I still can't muster the courage to take the Suns given the reasons previously mentioned as well as the opportunity for Dogs to boost percentage. But... the 1H line angle looks to be worth rolling the dice. Dogs have lost the past 4, Suns have covered the past 6.
Play: Suns 1H +20.5

STK v. Melbourne +6.5 / 190.5 / Etihad
Game of the day, and should be a fun match to watch. Weather perfect in Melbourne. Two offensive teams, in pretty good form, equal places on the ladder, and trending up this season. In the Saints favour: 1. They own the Dees, having won the past 13 straight; 2. Dees have lost 22 of past 23 at Etihad, 3. Focused minds after almost losing to the Bombers last week, 4. 6-1 ATS record in past 7 Etihad games (not covering last round). In the Dees favour: 1. Motivation to add the Saints to the list of monkeys they are yanking off their backs this season, 2. They almost beat the Saints here Rd 11 last year, losing by 2 points, 3. That sole Etihad win came round 23 last year over the Giants, 4. Motivation part 2: Saints beat them by 39 already this year there, they will be hungrier. History and form are simply too strong to pass on getting over a goal for the better team in this situation. Total seems low to me as well. Rd 6 this year, these two hit 231. Since that match, Saints have averaged 100 points there over past 6 occasions. Average points against that same frame is 80, but includes these juggernauts: Essendon, Freo, Carlton. Taking out the away games in weird stadiums/conditions for Dees, since Rd 5 at the 'G, the past 6 games there they put up an average 101 points. Imho, each team clears 90 for sure, and at least one gets past 100.
Plays: Saints +6.5 / Over 190.5

Carlton v. WCE +36.5 / 171.5 / MCG
First blush this seems like an easy Eagles cover. Playing more physical and confident since losing to the Crows late at home. Covered large spread last away game at the Gabba over Lions. Blues' last two games, both at the G, saw them score under 50 points. Casboult suspended this week, so how much can that feeble offence improve? Is Armfield going to kick 8 goals, 6 from outside 50 this week?! :) This feels like a 50 game, but I just can't trust the Eagles on the road laying this many points. Likely they get across the line comfortably, but I'm passing.
No play.

Brisbane v. GWS +45.5 / 199.5 / Gabba
Giants off a shaming meltdown after Q1 at home v. Pies, Lions remaining in the headlines with Leppa ruminations. I liked the fight the Lions brought last weekend vs. Suns, and expect they will again. But just 4 rounds ago, Lions lost by 49 to Eagles here at the Gabba. But they have covered comfortably the last two rounds. Giants are 2-5 ATS on the road this season, with the largest cover v. Saints at 47 points. Tin says 90% chance they clear the line. I like those odds. The total seems low for this stadium and these two teams. With Lions at the Gabba this season, 6 of 8 games have cleared 200 points, including the past four straight, at an average 214 points!
Plays: Giants -45.5 / Over 199.5

Let's see if I can get at least one win this Sunday...

Good luck - Erich

Good day, good round...
3-0 on Thu Fri
2-3 on Sat
3-1 today

8-4 on the round