Posted:
#76
Sixers you are up by 120 points,just bludge around and waste some clock you box
Adelaide vs Cairns
Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:
Yep - good point Jive. Very good point.
look it, end of the 3rd quarter 70-57, they need 31 points to kill off the under (3.1 pts / min) , but 70-57 at the 30 min mark of a 48 min game and they still need another 62 in 18 mins (3.44 pts / min) , which is far from over the line in this league.
With 40 games, you can blink and it's fucked either way
Posted:
#90
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:
you guys see what I mean with these 40 min games ? I mean if this were 48 min the under 189 (what a 157.5 equates to over 48 mins) is still well and truly alive, but with these shorter games there is a much smaller margin for error either way.
Even a short scoring spurt or drought can completely fuck you either way
yep, im offically banning myself from nbl totals...its fukn impossible
Posted:
#94
Wouldn't mind finding out how many games this season with totals set in the 170+ range have gone "under".
Seems like the vast majority of matches where the number was set that high have gone under, some by a long way.
Unlike the NBA where you can guage a lot about how a game is likely to pan out purely by the line / total set, books pretty much take an educated guess imo setting totals in the NBL.
Posted:
#97
Quote Originally Posted by SirGargamel:
some key injuries for this evening
Adelaide
Jacob Holmes - Strained medial longitudinal arch (foot) – Test
some key injuries for this evening
Adelaide
Jacob Holmes - Strained medial longitudinal arch (foot) – Test
Cairns
Ian Crosswhite – Wrist - Test
after their inept performance @ home to Gold Coast on Saturday i'm feeling this Taipan squad will put up a reasonable performance for 3 quarters before evetually rolling over & taking their punishment like the little bitches they are.
Shut down Mills offensively, keep Rychart/Meltzer off the boards & it's lights out for the Taipans.
Adelaide ML (in-game) to the bank
might do me some good to recall my original thoughts pre-game when betting in-game..missed the sixer money-boat
Posted:
#98
Quote Originally Posted by SirGargamel:
yep, im offically banning myself from nbl totals...its fukn impossible
yep, im offically banning myself from nbl totals...its fukn impossible
gotta bet numbers that give you a little wiggle room imo, we all jumped on a number with absolutely ZERO value tonight. Had the books set it at 164.5 and we'd lost, no problem, they just shot a little too well, but when the number is where you think it should be and you make a coin-flip play then you only have yourself to blame.
As I look at my spreadsheet record for NBL this season I see that I'm 5-6 on totals and 9-1 on sides in games where a strong situational angle cried out for a play on a particular team (strong revenge spot / desperate need for a win ect) In between there are other wins and losses here and there for only +2.34 units overall.
Moral of the story is we all need to be more patient and selective in this league. Motivation is the key. 
Posted:
#99
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:
gotta bet numbers that give you a little wiggle room imo, we all jumped on a number with absolutely ZERO value tonight. Had the books set it at 164.5 and we'd lost, no problem, they just shot a little too well, but when the number is where you think it should be and you make a coin-flip play then you only have yourself to blame.
As I look at my spreadsheet record for NBL this season I see that I'm 5-6 on totals and 9-1 on sides in games where a strong situational angle cried out for a play on a particular team (strong revenge spot / desperate need for a win ect) In between there are other wins and losses here and there for only +2.34 units overall.
Moral of the story is we all need to be more patient and selective in this league. Motivation is the key.
very well said
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