2008 Tour De France

PREVIEW

The following Preview has been sourced from many different sources and feature the top 20 main chances. One of these 20riders will win the Tour. I have done my best to include past history. My opinions are strictly my opinions and no one elses. As the Tour of Switzerland is currently on, I may put more details in here - so I will let you know if I do. The odds are taken from Sportingbet.

1. Cadel Evans

Team:Silence Lotto

Current Odds: $3/$1.40

The Aussie finished on the podium last year and the year before rode himself into the top 10. I cannot understand why his odds are so short. He is a chance but he won't win. There is value in other riders. He finished second to Valverde in the Dauphine last week and came second in the Flech-Wallone. He won stage 4 in Paris-Nice also this year.
He has shown he can handle a Grand tours with a 2nd last year, 4th 2006 and 8th 2005. He has also posted a 4th overall in the Veulta last year. The lack of time trial kilometres in this may cost him as I don't believe he is strong enough in the mountains. However, he has the form there. Threat. Consider.

Prediction: 4th

2. Alejandro Valverde

Team:Caisse D'Espargne

Current Odds: $5/$1.80

Alejandro set the Dauphine alight with blistering form in the mountains. Won the time trial too in superb fashion. His form this year has been good with a few races he has won including Leige-Bastonge-Leige and he is clearly on form if his Dauphine form is to go by. However there is still a question mark over his grand tour rides over the past few years. In 2005 he beat Lance Armstrong up Alp D'Huez but failed to finish the tour. He failed to finish the tour in 2006 and last year he finished 6th but looked crap. In the Veulta he has finished 2nd in 2006, 4th in 2004 and 3rd in 2003. But his lack of results at the Tour is a worry but has proven he can ride. However he is riding the best I have ever seen him ride and he has a strong backup in his team. There are still doubts over his ability to complete a 3 week race too. Main threat! Consider.

Prediction: 2nd

3. Denis Menchov

Team: Rabobank

Current Odds $7.50/$2.20

Denis Menchov is the Tim Henman of Wimbledon. Always up there but no chance of winning. His form has been scratchy at best and I can't see him winning. However, the experience is there so that may count for something. He came 5th in the Giro this year but didn't look spectacular. But that may be because he was concentrating for the Tour and his fitness wasn't there. He won the Veulta in 2007 and 2005 so he has at least 2 grand tours to his name. His tour performances have been white jersey in 2003 and came 6th in 2006. He doesn't have Rasmussen there with him so he is team leader and he has a good team around him. He may be worth having a punt on, but his odds aren't that good.

Prediction: 9th

4. Damiano Cunego

Team: Lampre

Current Odds $10/$3.25

Cunego has raced the Tour once before and finished 11th and won the white jersey for the best young riders competition back in 2006. He has his goal set on the tour this year. Has already got a grand tour under his belt so he knows how to win them. He won the Giro in 2004. However his form is a bit worrying in Switzerland at the moment. He was dropped on an easy climb in stage 5. It may or may not be something to look into. He won the Amstel Gold Race earlier this year and finished on the podium in Leige-Bastonge-Leige so he has had a good year and prepared for the Tour. He's had a look at a few stages and one that he wants to win is stage 15 which finishes in Italy. One to beat!

Prediction: 1st

5. Andy Schleck

Team: CSC

Current Odds: $11/$3.75

This rider from Luxemberg is talent. He is young, 23 years old but has shown promising signs early in his career. He came second in the Giro last year so knows how to perform in the Grand tours. In 2008 he has come 4th in Leige-Bastonge-Leige and has been thereabouts in Switzerland. The thing with Andy is CSC have 3 riders who are in contention for the Tour. It's hard to tell who will lead them this year. I would say Andy would be the man but his brother Frank and the seasoned veteran Sastre are also candidates. I don't think he has ever participated in the Tour either so based on these reasons I would wait and see what happens with CSC. Respect but hold out!

Prediction: 7th

1. Damiano Cunego
2. Alejandro Valverde
3. Kim Kirchen
4. Cadel Evans
5. Samuel Sanchez
6. Haimar Zubeldia
7. Andy Schleck
8. Stijn Devolder
9. Denis Menchov
10. Juan Jose Cobo
11. Mauricio Soler
12. Carlos Sastre
13. Frank Schleck
14. Ricardo Ricco
15. Vladimir Karpets
16. Yaroslav Popovych
17. Oscar Perero
18. Chrisophe Moreau
19. Christain Vande Velde
20. Luis Leon Sanchez

Value Bets

Kim Kirchen - Each Way
Haimar Zubeldia - Podium
Frank Schleck - Podium
Samuel Sanchez - Each Way
Damiano Cunego - Each Way

Current Outright Bets

Kim Kirchen E/W $50/$100 @ $76/$23

Outright bets!

 

Yellow Jersey

 

Kirchen - Each Way @ $76/$23

 

Cunego - Each Way @ $11/$3.25

 

Green Jersey

 

Erik Zabel @ $9 - Zabel was strong in the Giro and this is his swan song. More than likely will say farewell to cycling after the Tour. One last chance for him to grab green.

 

Mark Cavendish @ $15 - If he decides to stay for the 3 weeks - he has the green. He is the fastest man there and has a good team to back him up.

 

White Jersey

 

Andy Schleck @ $2.25 - Are they serious? He's up against Kreuziger who has shown a lot but won't finish, Soler who's form is crap, Ricco who doesn't want to be there, Monfort, Gregorio, Nibali and Lovkvist - Lovkvist can be a threat. If Schleck pulls out then there is value in Lovkvist. Schleck is top 10 material. Best rider there. Double your money whilst you can.

 

Polka Dot Jersey

 

Soler @ $3 - this guy showed his stuff last year. Again, he will do the same. Similar to Rasmussen in his early years as he isn't a yellow challenger and may target the polka dot jersey.

 

Piepoli @ $8 - small play at this point in time. His price might go in.

 

 

Top 10 finish

 

Kirchen @ $1.85

 

Cobo @ $3.50

 

Head to Heads on General Classification

 

Valverde over Sastre @ $1.58

Valverde over Evans @ $2.55

Cunego over Sastre @ $2.05

Cobo over Kreuziger @ $1.85 - BIG PLAY

Kirchen over Zubeldia @ $2.25

Kirchen over Astraloza @ $1.66

Kirchen over Popovych @ $1.60 - LOL

Sanchez over Ricco @ $1.60

Lovkvist over Fothen @ $1.75

 

Team Classfication

Columbia over Quickstep @ $1.85 - Kirchen, Lovkvist, Siutsou, Hincapie V Devolder

 

To wear yellow jersey

 

Cunego to wear it @ $3

Evans not to wear it @ $2.70

Cancellara to wear it @ $1.95 - If not tonight, in the time trial on Tuesday.

 

Winning margin

 

Less than 1 minute @ $2.50

 

Stage Victories

 

Valverde over 1.5 @ $2

Evans under 0.5 @ $1.75

Cancellara over 0.5 @ $1.45

Freire over 0.5 @ $1.45

Zabel over 0.5 @ $3

Cavendish over 0.5 @ $1.75

 

Team Stage Victories

 

Columbia over 1.5 @ $1.60

 

Overall groups of 3

 

Kirchen over Devolder and F Schleck @ $2.40

 

 

That's enough outrights for me.

 

Good luck!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Onto the tour itself I have a bankroll of $3000

Stage 1 - small plays!

$50 Cancellara Each Way $14/$4.50
$50 Freire Each Way $7.50/$2.50
$10 Voekler Each Way $81/$23


$220 wagered.

Now that Soler is injured, it's time to put money on Piepoli. $300 on Piepoli @ $10 to win $2700 for the KOM.

 

Other value in De la Fuente @ $16, Chavannel @ $23, Dessel @ $14 and Moreau @ $8

Today is all about Cavendish. The Columbia train looked well organised and they will dominate like they did the Giro.

 

$150 E/W on Cavendish @ $10/$3.50

$50 on Pozzato to podium @ $4

 

Good luck!

 

Actually whilst there's value in Cavendish, I'll be putting an extra $50 each way on him to make it $200 each way and $450 wagered for the day!

Nice write up. Best of luck!

How do you think Cavendish is sitting now?

 

Blindly tailed and put him in a multi with first leg getting up. Stand to win $550 off $25.

 

Go Cavendish!

I don't think tonight's stage is a bunch sprint. The peloton couldn't organise a fight in a fight club. However, I am going to cover all bases here. Time for a fucking win!

Also, the sprinters have lost an ally in Columbia.

Now that Kirchen is technically in Yellow and is in Green, Columbia need to protect him and he needs to protect his green jersey so I highly doubt Columbia will be doing pace setting tonight! If I was team director at the tour, I would tell 6 riders to blanket Kirchen and try and set Cavendish and Ciolek in the breakaway. That's how I would do stage 5 if I was in the right position. And that's exactly what Columbia should do!

It's in Columbia's and Kirchen's best interest to not help the bunch sprint happen tonight. Let the other teams do the work, and there's no many.

After seeing stage 3 be fucked up and stage 2 nearly being fucked up, I'm on the following today - just for the sake of it! Last time I predicted a breakaway win was Voigt in the Giro.

To cover the break! $110 wagered on!

$10 E/W Gilbert $31/$9
$10 E/W Voigt $41/$12.50
$10 E/W Voeckler $126/$36
$10 E/W Casar $151/$41
$10 E/W Seb Chavannel $31/$9
$5 E/W Syl Chavannel $67/$15
$5 E/W Domoulin $101/$31

To cover the sprint finish.

$100 E/W Cavendish $5/$1.90

If a breakaway survives and none of those riders above are in it, I will be one pissed off man!

Voeckler and Casar are the good prices!

Okay stage 6. A few little bets as tonigth's stage is too unpredictable but if it goes the way we want, it can also be very profitable. Very small on the following.

Millar E/W $51/$13
Pereiro E/W $51/$13
Voeckler E/W $51/$13
Dessel E/W $41/$11
Piepoli E/W $29/$8
Moreau E/W $21/$6
Siutsou E/W $151/$38
Ricco E/W $7/$2.25

These are the guys that will most likely be in the break. And if the break gets away then Pereiro, Piepoli, Moreau and Ricco will fight out the stage win and everyone else will drop.

Anyway onto my large plays!

Kirchen E/W $6/$2.25
Valverde E/W $5.50/$2.10

And some match ups.

Lovkvist over Krueziger @ $1.87
Moreau over Chavanel @ $1.87

Good luck!