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You'll call me crazy.....

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Posts: 47

boomersooner13

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Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 3563

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 2:02 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by Pho_Q_Pay_Me:

impressive

Hook Em' Longhorns

never thought i'd see the day where my "picks" went 7-0...HA. this is kind of bittersweet: I made picks that all hit....but now i'm nervous because expectations are high......what a dangerous situation.

Pho_Q_Pay_Me

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Posts: 2384

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 2:45 AM ET #27

only expectations you gotta worry about are your own, don't pay any mind to anyone else... Haters gonna hate and losers gonna tail, and tailers gonna cry... keep postin the system, i'll keep an eye on it

boomersooner13

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Posts: 3563

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 10:29 AM ET #28

Kind of scared today. Took a look at the games and wrote down my initial leans, then threw them into the system and got pretty different results.

AGAIN, I ADVISE YOU NOT TO PLAY THIS AS A SYSTEM. I WILL NOT BE PLAYING IT MYSELF, THIS IS SIMPLY TO RECORD THE PICKS AND THE PROGRESS OF THE "SYSTEM"

NYR/NJD -Under

Bruins/Sens - Under

Wings/florida - Over

*StL/Buffalo - Over

*Ducks/WIld - Under

*Philadelphia/Carolina - Over

Columbus/Chi - Over

The three strongest % plays are StL/Buff, Philadelphia/Carolina, and Ducks/Wild, all in order.

Some of these percentages were so freaking small

I am going to have to figure out a cut off point for the percentages in order for this thing to be successful. The Rangers/NJD game, Bruins/Sens, and Detroit/Panthers games were all ridiculously close. I probably would only be playing the * if this was actually a system

outlaw96

MVP

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 17565

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 10:50 AM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by Pho_Q_Pay_Me:

only expectations you gotta worry about are your own, don't pay any mind to anyone else... Haters gonna hate and losers gonna tail, and tailers gonna cry... keep postin the system, i'll keep an eye on it

well stated Pho Q

boomersooner13

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Posts: 3563

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 11:00 AM ET #30

this system is starting to make me really worry. every seems to be against the picks, even myself. I think the system might have it's first losing night all week....

boomersooner13

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Posts: 3563

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 1:09 PM ET #31

After doing the math, the totals for tonight would be to risk 8.1 Units to win 7 if i were to bet on them all.

The end of this week will be great for me to look at percent effectiveness and cut off points and all that stuff. Since I've been posting the plays, it's been 7-0 and +7 Units (6-0 if you're not counting SJ, which in that case, the +U would be 6)

SmokinAces

Rookie

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 540

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 1:26 PM ET #32

Huge night last night man! Your system seems to be on par with vegas, you're laying juice in all games except for 2 tonight, and last night you only had 1 game you weren't laying the juice (Pho/Atl)...and that game went over in the 2nd period I think. I think on the side you should keep track of what your system does AGAINST the juice, could turn into a system in itself....I don't know what type of stats your system uses, but back tracking can erase all your questions...it's saved me before! BOL boomer!

BETTINHARDD

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Posts: 3099

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 1:28 PM ET #33

i was gonna go with wild/ducks over but i dont wanna go against ur system haha.. cuz i want this to do well

claude_gir0ux

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Posts: 20623

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 1:28 PM ET #34

BOL!!!

fishsticks

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Posts: 3342

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 1:52 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by outlaw96:

well stated Pho Q

I am in the car with you.

boomersooner13

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Posts: 3563

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 1:58 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by BETTINHARDD:

i was gonna go with wild/ducks over but i dont wanna go against ur system haha.. cuz i want this to do well

no no no no no no no that's not what i want! i want you to do at all. play YOUR plays. this thing isn't even proven yet. The wild/ducks game is one of the games that my system just barely gave me an Under for.

I know i said "just barely" and it's one of my "starred" plays, but tonights card was tough on my system. A lot of the percentages are pretty low actually, and the only ones I might bet on are StL/Buffalo and flyers/Carolina.

If this does turn into a solid system, i might take days like this off just because the percentages i got in the last column weren't as convincing as yesterday. I went into yesterday really feeling like the system would win 5 or 6 of those games, but tonight i'm feeling like i could go 3-4 with the system. so PLEASE, PLEEEEEEEASE don't cancel a play you want to make solely based off of what my very young system says. It hits a good amount of the time, but sometimes you just have to look at the card and raise your eyebrow and say," ehhh.....i don't know about tonight."

Whatever you do, BOL to you. Just be patient with me and give me some time to really develop this system as far as it can possibly go. That's when I'll encourage you guys to follow, but right now, go about your business as usual. it'll probably be better for you and me if you do that

boomersooner13

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Posts: 3563

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 2:03 PM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by SmokinAces:

yeah i did a little bit of back tracking after your posts yesterday and it looked pretty solid, but i could only do a handful of games.

i'm a "newbie" at betting (still in college, been doing this for 9 months) but i know all the terminology, but what do you mean by keeping track on what it does against the juice?

sorry if that's a dumb question. i just don't know how i'd go about keeping track of that

SmokinAces

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Posts: 540

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 2:22 PM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by boomersooner13:

yeah i did a little bit of back tracking after your posts yesterday and it looked pretty solid, but i could only do a handful of games.

i'm a "newbie" at betting (still in college, been doing this for 9 months) but i know all the terminology, but what do you mean by keeping track on what it does against the juice?

sorry if that's a dumb question. i just don't know how i'd go about keeping track of that

no problem man, not a dumb question. What it means is that your system is picking the 'favorite' on almost all games. "Against the juice" just means the underdog on these plays. (Like today you have NJD/NYR under when the over is the favored play) And so far it is 1-0 from last night...just a thought, but it may be worth watching as it will limit the amount of plays and juice you lay out....but you went 7-0 last night, so def don't disregard playing mostly favorites as your system has done!

hope that clarified it a bit, GL

boomersooner13

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Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 2:26 PM ET #39

Yeah that's what i was thinking you were saying, i was just kind of confused.

I don't know why the over was the underdog in that game last night...that was the one game i was most sure of haha.

and that's another thing i'm worried about. my system spits out plays that are almost exactly what vegas says. so either 1) my system is THAT simple or 2) i'm on to something similar or on the same thought process as vegas is.

We'll see though. I'm really worried about tonight

. this card is really making me look hard at what i need to add or take out of it. And on top of that, a lot of people are against the plays. We'll see where it goes. I just don't want to have a losing night and have everyone jump on my ass and tell me i'm an idiot....

xbaggypants

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Posts: 14200

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 2:30 PM ET #40

CAR/PHIL OVER

SmokinAces

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Posts: 540

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 2:31 PM ET #41

anyone that jumps on your plays when you've blatantly stated that this system hasn't been really put to the test is the "idiot", so don't even sweat it man...

Pho_Q_Pay_Me

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Posts: 2384

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 2:48 PM ET #42

with you on nj/ny under and stl/buf over

lets get it bro

BETTINHARDD

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Posts: 3099

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 2:51 PM ET #43

i had stronger plays for tonight IMO this didnt sway me totally lol

boomersooner13

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Posts: 3563

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 2:55 PM ET #44

haha i just don't want people changing their picks yet because of an immature system that happened to do well for a week. Tonight could very well be a losing night...but if it is then i'll tweak the formula to make it more accurate

boomersooner13

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Posts: 3563

Posted: Feb. 18, 2011 - 2:56 PM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by SmokinAces:

anyone that jumps on your plays when you've blatantly stated that this system hasn't been really put to the test is the "idiot", so don't even sweat it man...

i'm glad i've got someone on my side haha