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You'll call me crazy.....

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Posted: #1
But I've spent some time developing a system for O/U in hockey and have tracked it all through this week.  It's gone 19-7 this week (73%)

Of course, i'll post the plays and they'll all lose, just watch.  

SO FADE AWAY

Bruins/Islanders Over
Rangers/Kings Under
Tampa/Detroit Over
Canucks/Preds Under
montreal/edmonton Under
phoenix/atlanta over (large wager)
san jose/ wash under (just slighty.  This is actually a no system play but i'm trying to tweak it a little bit to make everything a system play.  I won't be playing this one so won't count it towards my record.)

I'm just posting this to get it out there and if it starts winning, you guys will have proof on it and it could help you guys out.  

I'm not going to bet on all of these and i'd advise you to not place bets just because of what i've said.  I'll track this system over the next few weeks and see if it starts to return a profit.  All games would be wager 110 to win 100, except phoenix and atlanta, which would be 220 to win 200. Total 770 to win 700. (hypothetically.  Not actually betting on all of them)

BOL all
 
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Posted: #2
and change the record to 20-6.  turns out the flames shellacking of the avalance DID pass the over in the system by fractions.  just a small miscalculation on my count
 
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Posted: #3
Why don't you back test it for at least a couple months to see what its done?  Just my opinion, but only tracking it for a week isn't going to give you a realistic expectation.  I'm all for systems, I just like to look at last 6 months atleast to see what it's done...you'll get answers without losing any money if its tanked before...but GL, and I'm on the atl/pho over so i like it!
 
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Posted: #4

also may want to think about narrowing down your system, 7 plays in a single night for a system is too many IMO (I know you said you wouldn't bet them all, but if they are all "system" plays then you've got to narrow down the ones you play)...good luck though man

 
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Posted: #5
I agree well said SmokinAces.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by SmokinAces:

also may want to think about narrowing down your system, 7 plays in a single night for a system is too many IMO (I know you said you wouldn't bet them all, but if they are all "system" plays then you've got to narrow down the ones you play)...good luck though man


yeah i back tested it for the first part of this season (after 10 games) and after 10 games of all of last season and it hit ~75% (probably not giving enough credit, i think it was right at 76.8% but i can't remember the exact number) and it's hit almost 73 after 10 games through this season, so i'm feeling pretty good about it.  

For past seasons, i haven't been able to find the all the stats so i couldn't back test it very well.  If you know of a website with almost every stat possible let me know.  I'm pleased with this "almost system" so far and hopefully i'll be able to tweak it a little bit and take out or add a few things to make it even more accurate.  

Thanks for the feedback though, i'm definitely going to look a little more into it.  and like i said, i could go 7-0 or i could go 0-7, i'm not in any way saying this is an error proof system, but i think with a little bit of work it could be very, very profitable
 
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Posted: #7
i should mention that since i first posted this thread until my most recent post, all i've been doing is researching and crunching numbers and they all come out solid so far.  if this thing hits 70% of the time after the next few weeks, I'm going to start following it
 
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Posted: #8
good stuff if you could get to three FOR SURE plays every night youd be onto something for sure!
 
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Posted: #9

And not tryin to piss in your cornflakes here again bud, but your system is assuming juice at -110...that is not that case on most games (example: caps/sj under -145 right now)   

 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by SmokinAces:

And not tryin to piss in your cornflakes here again bud, but your system is assuming juice at -110...that is not that case on most games (example: caps/sj under -145 right now)   


I don't really understand exactly what you're trying to say.

if you're talking about my "hypothetical wagers" then yeah, i'll adjust them to what i would bet to win 100.  When the game starts I'll look at it and make the right adjustments.  So if i'm wrong about the Under in the caps/sj game, then i'll subtract 145 from my total, not 110.

But to what triplee said, i went back and looked at the percentages and came out with what i think are the three best percentage picks according to what my computer spat back at me:
1. Phoenix/ATL over 5 1/2 @ -120
2. Tampa/Detroit Over 5 1/2 @ -135
3. Canucks/Preds Under 5 1/2 @ -145

yeah, it looks like i'm just betting with "sure bets" based on what they put the juice at, but maybe that means my system is on the right track?

I'm actually really looking forward to getting a different outcome than vegas and seeing where that ends up.  

And it should be noted that the Rangers/Kings has changed to an Over play for the system since it's at O/U 5
 
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Posted: #11

I guess my point it you need to keep track of UNITS and not the actual RECORD...you could lose 1.45 units on the caps under tonight while only winning 1 on the phoenix over...so technically your system is 1-1 but your actually down .45 units...when playing a system that type of variance is huge

 
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Posted: #12
I dunno but looks good to me...all but the SJ total
Stay safe and play smart
 
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Posted: #13
i appreciate the insight.  i guess units are a much bigger deal than record.  if i were to lock these bets in right now:

Bruins/Islanders Over @ -115 (1.15 U)
Rangers/Kings OVER (switched) @ -115 (1.15 U) 
*Tampa/Detroit Over @ -135 (1.35 U)
*Canucks/Preds Under @ -145 (1.45 U)
montreal/edmonton Under @ -135 (1.35 U)
*phoenix/atlanta over (large wager) @ EVEN (1 U) (would be a large play, but I'm keeping everything consistent

I'd be putting down 7.45 Units to win 6.

Games with a * are the one's I would wager more on based on the percentages excel shot out at me, but won't just to keep everything even. 

After today, I'm going to move this to the systems and strategies forum and track it from there.  Wish me luck!

 
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Posted: #14
Stay safe and play smart
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Johnnypicks:

I dunno but looks good to me...all but the SJ total

excel threw out such a low % to me that i wouldn't play it at all.  It was as close as it could have possibly been to completely even, but it was just fractions on the under.  I'll be staying away from fractions like thrat throughout my trial.  

And each night I'll look through the results and the percentages and see if there is any percentage bracket that would be more successful than the other.  I've got everything written down and recorded and i'll begin updating tomorrow from the other forum
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by boomersooner13:

i appreciate the insight.  i guess units are a much bigger deal than record.  if i were to lock these bets in right now:

Bruins/Islanders Over @ -115 (1.15 U) 
Rangers/Kings OVER (switched) @ -115 (1.15 U) 
*Tampa/Detroit Over @ -135 (1.35 U) 
*Canucks/Preds Under @ -145 (1.45 U)
montreal/edmonton Under @ -135 (1.35 U)
*phoenix/atlanta over (large wager) @ EVEN (1 U) (would be a large play, but I'm keeping everything consistent)  
I'd be putting down 7.45 Units to win 6.

Games with a * are the one's I would wager more on based on the percentages excel shot out at me, but won't just to keep everything even. 

After today, I'm going to move this to the systems and strategies forum and track it from there.  Wish me luck!


"system" went 6-0 on the night and won 6 Units.  I only bet on the ATL/Phoenix game Over and the Montreal/Edmonton game Under along with the Sharks ML for a parlay.  but I kind of like where this "almost system" is going.

Recap: 6-0 +6 units


 
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Posted: #17
Fault on my part.  I bet on the Coyote ML, not the San Jose.  I apologize, but that makes me a winner!  placed 100 on the parlay and won 460!  

Congrats to all the winners.  I'll be continuing this journey in the systems and strategies board, so come along for the ride!

I do want to say that the system said SJ/Wash would be an under game.  If it turns out to be that way, it's 7-0 on the day and 27-6 this week.  If it goes over, then it's 6-1 on the day and 26-7 on the week.  As i referred to earlier in this thread, the % i got from the formula was so small, but still said under.  I'm going to watch such small percentages very closely and try to find the "cut off line".

BOL all
 
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Posted: #18
Sharing is Caring
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by LuckyGuy:


explain yourself....
 
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Posted: #20
 
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Posted: #21
yeah now i'm nervous...how many times do you see someone come out with system picks and have it go 7-0......just my luck.  WATCH, i'll post the picks for the rest of the week and lose half of them.....
 
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Posted: #22
wow.......
 
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Posted: #23
looks good, what about Friday's games?

NYR/NJ - O
STL/BUF - U
BOS/OTT - U
DET/FLA - O
PHI/CAR - O
ANA/MIN - U
CBJ/CHI - O
 
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Posted: #24
not sure yet.  i'm exhausted and probably about to go to bed.  I'll crunch all the numbers and have them up by game time tomorrow, no worries.

please take my advice and DON'T play this as a system yet.  i want to get a few weeks, maybe months of trials down just to see if it's solid enough
 
 
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Posted: #25
impressive

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