Stanley Cup Round 1 Strategy Thread 2026

Ah, mid-April, flowers are blooming, birds are singing, and pucks are dropping and Series Games 1&2 are Splitting.  Love this time of year.  Hockey playoffs is the best.

Here's a data/system/strategy that has brought success to me over past 5 years:  Play all Overs in first 4 games of each Round 1 Matchup.  Here's the data:

2025:

Over 6.5  16-16

Over 5.5  21-11

Over 4.5   26-6

2024:

Over 5.5  18-14

Over 4.5  26-6 

2023:

Over 5.5  21-11

Over 4.5  27-5

2022:

Over 5.5  24-8

Over 4.5  27-5

Over 5.5 Round 1 1st 4 games over 5 year span is NOW a whopping 104-56  -  65% win rate.  5 years running turning a significant profit of appx 47 units over 5 years.  I used this system last year to post a 20-11-1 record for +9 units including taking some 6.5’s (hence I added the 6.5 data).  shop your lines and don't be afraid of buying hooks with Over 6.5 hitting 50% and a few of those would have been plus odds.

GOOD STUFF, WILL BE READY TO POUNCE BUDDY  

  Love it DY, remember this from last year great stuff and great writeups, hoping we have an epic playoffs, and good luck buddy and the rest of the forum as well!!!

MY math totals are wrong I double booked something...   84-44  almost 66% (65.625 exact)  

I did look at 2021 data

5.5  15-17

4.5  22-10

Remember that season was the regional COVID setup, so I take that data with an asterisk.  I think this trend is a more recent development attributed to expansion effects finally watering down the overall talent levels from top to bottom for Goaltending (i.e. above average scoring teams make Wild Card with shit goalie and face top level teams), Home Ice last change impacts (5v5 and PP) to get better matchups than in past, and first round jitters/slopiness/playing-tight leading to a lot of mistakes that turn into goals.  You also have most of the highest goal scoring teams facing teams in middle of the pack in GAA, so that helps with real Contenders potting 4 or 5 in a few games.

Anywho - we'll see where the system takes us this year. 

Canes Sens Over 6  even  1 unit  Fanduel odds

Over 6.5  FD  1/4u  +105

Mil Stars Over 6  +105  1/2 unit  FD  (not my favorite play here but...)

Mild Stars Over 5.5  -120  1/2u  gtbets

Gritties  Pens of Guin  Over 6 -120  gtbets

Over 6.5  +110  DK

Also playing:

Ottowa +130  1/2u

Mild ML 1/2u  even

Gritties ML +130  1/2u

 Gritties....but you didn't even take your team so you are consistent. I am leaning Wild to win the series..

GL D. 

Good stuff!

I am riding against the trend with Dallas UNDER 6;  we will see what happens 

Well that 1st period sucked. Need 4 in the 2nd.

Good luck in the playoffs Dy 

Under 3.5 -190 lol

I would think that game one would go under. Do you have the stats for that?

@GASportsDoc don't like betting on my boys - solid Win.  Did not think Fred would play like that... 

@KeyMaster  I did not like that Over either, but this fairly new system just plays on all games and does not care which go over - BOL these playoffs Key 

@bold27 thought it was 2nd best Over possibility on Board... 

@Osser  I think Game One's trend slightly to the Under, and games 2-4 are more consistently Overs .  This might be a future State tweak to this play. 

1-2 last night  plus 0-2 on the 6.5 bets.  Osser is spot on, as I think Game 1's struggle to go Over as frequently as Game's 2-4.  Let's see if this year is any different.  Pens almost helped get the Push, but Gritties could not get the Empty Netter. 

Avs Over 6  even  FD  1u

Tampons Over 6  -115  1u

Bahstahn Over 6  -115  1u 

Oil Over 6.5  m-120  1/2u

Over 7 +130  1/2u

Queens ML +240  1/8u

+PL  -110  1/4u

Habs  ML  +160  1/4u

Habs +1.5 & Over 5.5  +180  1/8u

B's  +140  1/2u

Moths  +140  1/2u

Brewing a Stahl #2 at the moment - got to get outdoor shit done while break in the rain here... 

BOL today 

@dyamarik

 Ya game 1s typically a little tighter as team battle for control of the series. Games 2-4 1 team is chasing or if its tied 1-1 they can play looser  and go for 2-1 lead. Forget the number but game 1 winners typically win series

@Raiders22  u2 buddy 

@dubz4dummyz where you been?  good to see your post.  Yah I think I will tweak system next year for G1.  68% is the G1 winner Series winner number I heard on TV last night.  

Stahl#2:  Double-Poo Special-Roo...

7LP:  Canadiens +3.5  &  Tampa Alt Total Goals Over 1.5  &  Buffalo Boston Both Teams to Score  &  Buffalo Alt Total Goals Over 1.5  &  Colorado Alt Total Goals Over 1.5  &  Avalanche +2.5  &  Moths +PL +170 1/4u

7LP:  Canadiens +3.5  &  Tampa Alt Total Goals Over 1.5  &  Buffalo Boston Both Teams to Score  &  Buffalo Alt Total Goals Over 1.5  &  Colorado Alt Total Goals Over 1.5  &  Avalanche +2.5  &  Moths ML +300 1/4u

@dyamarik

 Odds got nuked this year where I play which made it harder to profit. To lazy to sign up at a bunch of different books. Plus I was down so I took a break which made me lose interest, think I ended down 7 or 8 units...

Now that it's legal it seems like stats were being changed/monitored way more frequently/strictly, especially in the NBA, but even SOG and Save stats were being altered routinely during intermissions and after games. Maybe they were all correct/justified corrections. Also the corruption in the NBA/MLB with players manipulating their props was a huge turnoff.

Legalization of sports betting also kinda ruined it for us imo. They can nuke the odds cause the customer base got way bigger.

Found some new hobbies that I am enjoying more as well. Might make a few bets these playoffs just to spice up the games. Fishing and golf season now so who knows might not make a bet.

Was looking at some unders and saves bets. 

Good thread. Hopefully the split pays out for u this year 

@dubz4dummyz

 I hear ya.  Don't doubt a ton of shenanigans go on with Props.  Good luck with the Fishing and Golfing - I love both and don't do nearly enough of either. 

So curiosity set in and I had to go check.  Game 1's totals past 5 years...

2025:  8, 6, 5, 8, 6, 5, 11, and 8     6-2 5.5   4-2-2 flat 6   avg 7.1  med 7

2024:  4, 6, 5, 5, 13, 6, 7 and 11    5-3 5.5   3-3-2  flat 6  avg 7.1  med 6

2023:  3, 4, 5, 7, 6, 10, 6, and 4     4-4 5.5   2-4-2 flat 6   avg 5.6  med 5.5

2022:  6, 5, 4, 7, 7, 6, 9, and 1       5-3 5.5   3-3-2 flat 6   avg 5.4  med 6

2021:  7, 5, 7, 9, 5, 1, 3, and 5       3-5 5.5   3-5-0 flat 6   avg 5.3  med 5

even record flat 6 and 20-12 at 5.5 

2026 so far:  2, 7, 5, 3, 7, 7, 6        4-3 5.5   3-3-1 flat 6   avg 5.3  med 6

2025 might be more of an anomaly than earlier thought Round 1, and the games in double digit totals did not happen this year (c'mon Oil/Quacks!!).  With Totals getting nuked as dubz professes, that weakens the effectiveness of this Over system, unless you buy back the hook and pay the juice down to 5.5, but then 68% becomes more break even when you're betting -130 to -140. 

Give me Game 2 of the 2021 and 2022 years. I think everyone opened very tight and game 2s might open up. My Flightless Fowl avg. 29 SOG throughout the year but for some reason (and it wasn't all the Flyers D) the sphincter became tight and they only shot 17 times in game 1....I am thinking this game will open up from a Pens perspective

@GASportsDoc  Let's take peek shall we...

Game 2 totals:

2025:  3,7,4,5,7,4,2,8   avg 4.8   med 4.5   3-5 5.5    3-5-0  flat 6

2024:  5,8,7,5,7,5,4,9   avg 5.4   med 6     4-4 5.5    4-4-0  flat 6

2023:  7,9,10,6,9,6,5,7 avg 7.4   med 7      7-1 5.5    5-1-2 flat 6

2022:  7,8,8,6,7,6,3,2   avg 5.9   med 6.5   6-2 5.5    4-2-2 flat 6

2021:  3,3,7,4,9,4,6,1   avg 4.6   med 4      3-3 5.5    2-5-1 flat 6

So 2022 and 2023 had very good results at 5.5 and 6.  2021 was the National/Regional Covid Cup so I take that season and its number lightly.  I think I looked at each of the 4 games individually last year, and arrived at the conclusion that it was hard to isolate a particular game 1 thru 4 as being the "best", but just taking the aggregate of all 4 games produced the best correlation to consistent Over 5.5. 

@dyamarik

 Ana/oil should be high scoring 

Pit/phi should be low scoring. Tochett runs a tight ship.

Others could all see some variation 

@dubz4dummyz  Hoping so...  Agree that Toch will promote D, but Pens have a way of making Overs this year.  Like them and Over in this one. 

Pens Reg +110  1/2u  PL  +170  1/4u

Sens ML +130  1/2u

Stars ML -130  3/4u  Reg +130  1/8u  PL  +200  1/8u

Quacks ML  +140  1/2u

Pens Over 6  -115  1u

Sens Over 5.5  -130 1/2u  Over 6 even  1/2u

DAL Over 5.5  -130 1/2u  Over 6 even  1/2u

Oil Over 6.5  -120  1/2u  Over 7 +130  1/2u

Pens Reg +110  1/2u  PL  +170  1/4u

Sens ML +130  1/2u

Stars ML -130  3/4u  Reg +130  1/8u  PL  +200  1/8u

Quacks ML  +140  1/2u

Pens Over 6  -115  1u

Sens Over 5.5  -130 1/2u  Over 6 even  1/2u

DAL Over 5.5  -130 1/2u  Over 6 even  1/2u

Oil Over 6.5  -120  1/2u  Over 7 +130  1/2 

5-7-2

Wow Pens suck balls.  How in the fuck did that team make playoffs in the East?

4LP:  Habs/Bolts Over 4.5  &  Bolts +1.5  &  Kuchie-Kuchie-Koo 1+ pts  &  2+ SOG  +110  3/4u

Broons ML +140 1/2u

Utah ML +135 1/2u

Avs PL even 3/4u

Habs Over 6  -110  1u

Broons Over 6 -110  1u

Utah OVer 6  -110 1u

Avs Over 6  -115 1u

Utah to win series  +280  1/2u

Goals are hard to come by so far... 

4LP:  Habs/Bolts Over 4.5  &  Bolts +1.5  &  Kuchie-Kuchie-Koo 1+ pts  &  2+ SOG  +110  3/4u 

Broons ML +140 1/2u 

Utah ML +135 1/2u 

Avs PL even 3/4u 

Habs Over 6  -110  1u

Broons Over 6 -110  1u 

Utah OVer 6  -110 1u

Avs Over 6  -115 1u

3-4-1  not faring well with the Over System this year.  Watching the games, and either the Goalies are playing out of their minds, and/or players cannot snipe spots.

I know as soon as I take a break BOOM...

Wednesday:

DALLAS Over 6  even  1u

Gritties Over 5.5  -120  1/2u   Over 6 +110  1/2u

Duckies  Over 6.5  -120  1/2u   Over 7 +110  1/2u

Quacks +165  1/2u

2LP: Mild +1.5  &  Over 5.5  +140  1/2u