Puck Plays - 01/24/2013 - Day 6 of Short Season

14-16-0 for - 1.50 units... Season To Date (Includes 01/23/2013)

0-0-0 for + 0.00 units... 01/23/2013 

One unit per play on dogs and To Win one unit on Fav's unless otherwise noted.

Picks are BOLD and followed by price.

Only played a $5 four team PL parlay yesterday and obviously lost... no biggie.

NYIslanders +100 at Toronto - The Isles are 3-3 in L-6 at TOR having won thier last trip there by a 5-2 score. The Leafs are 0-7 after thier L-7 wins overall so I'm banking that the NYI can pull it out... even if it takes extra play or a SO to get it done. Lupal is also OUT indefinitely (broken arm) for TOR.

NYRangers +105 at Philadelphia - The Flyers look to be in trouble and losing Hartnell (foot - OUT indefinitely) is not going to help them vs the Rangers who have had the Flyers number recently. Even if Biron gets the nod for the Rags... I can't back Brysgalov here. The Flyers have burned me every way I go w/them so if they pull out a win... It would serve me right to go against my #1 team.

Montreal +110 at Washington - The Habs are 9-11 in thier L-20 at DC however they are just 1-3 in thier L-4 trips to play the Caps on the road. The Caps just don't look right to me and I was correct in backing the Jets who pounded them two days ago in DC as huge dogs. A new coach and system which seems to have abandoned thier recent defensive style has added to the Caps slow start. I take a chance on the Habs who prior to the L-4 in DC had won 3 of those L-4 games in DC. I'm looking for Price and the Habs to deliver for me vs the Big Ruskie #8 and company.

Buffalo +110 at Carolina - The Sabres are 4-3 in thier L-7 trip to Carolina however Miller (G-BUF) is just 4-9 lifetime at Carolina. He is 2-3 in the L-5 there so I'm hoping that the Sabres can help him out and improve that record. I'm also hoping the Canes help him out and continue to struggle scoring. They have mustered only one goal in each of thier first two games (L 1-5 at FLA and L 1-4 at home vs TB). Cam Ward (G-CAR) is a solid 8-4 at home vs the Sabres (5-1 in L-5) and has beaten Miller and the Sabres the L-4 times he faced them at home in CAR. The thing is... The Canes provided him with plenty of goals in those games... something they are struggling to do so far this season. I'm risking that Miller and company can continue to keep the Canes frustrated but the Sabres are going to have to improve upon thier 2.25 GPG ave in the L-4 vs Ward in Carolina. This play has some risk but I feel good about my chances here.

Ottawa -110 at Florida - I'm going with the impressive Sens numbers in this tilt. They are a SOLID 16-4 in thier L-20 trip to Miami (5-1 in L-6) BUT they did lose 2-4 the L-trip there on 03/04/2012.  The good news is that in that game the Sens jumped out to a 2-0 lead before BACKUP goalie Robin Lehner gave up the ghost and 3 second period goals in the loss. In the season opener this year, the Sens snuffed out the Panthers 4-0 in Ottawa. If you're interested... The Over has been the right play and is 12-6-2 in the L-20 meetings in Miami. I just don't trust FLA to score much tonight so I'll pass.

Nashville +145 at St.Louis - Under-5 (+100) also - Everyone and thier brother will be on the Blues tonight but I'm going with the Preds to get some revenge after a tough 3-4 home shootout loss to the Blues just 4 days ago. The Preds are 12-8 in thier L-20 at STL including 7-3 in the L-10 there. They are just 2-3 in the L-5 but have taken 2 of the L-3 which saw Rhinne best Halak in both games. Playing the U-5 here means I'll need a strong game from the Preds DEF and Rhinne but even if I split the worst I can do is break even in this one. The UNDER is 12-8 in the L-20 at STL vs Preds and when it has been set at U-5 it is 6-3 to the Under-5 including a 4-1 run for the Under set at 5 goals. I know the Blues and NHL Overs are the hot plays recently but I feel good about both of these plays here.

More Games To Follow...

Nice write up Skubi

GL Squire

Continued...

Chicago at Dallas +105 - Again... Many will be riding the Hawks in this one but I like getting the home dog here. The Stars are 14-5 in the L-19 at home vs the Hawks BUT that includes a loss in the L-meeting there and the Stars are just 5-5 in the L-10 at home vs CHI. I still like my chances here. The Blues gave the Hawks a good run 2 nights ago in CHI and the Stars have been playing good out of the gate with new faces leading the way for them. Home teams have a losing record so far in the NHL in 2013 but I like Dallas to hand CHI thier 1st loss while picking up another win at home. Getting a dog line just makes it better for me to decide here.

LAKings at Edmonton - Under-5 +115 - The Kings are 7-1 in thier L-8 trips to Edmonton and have allowed a staggering total of just 9 goals to the Oilers in those games. The Oilers scored just 1 goal in 5 of those game, were shutout once(LA-Bernier) and scored 2 goals twice. In those 8 games the Kings scored a total of 20 goals (4,1,2,3,3,3,2,2). Jonathan Quick started in 6 of those 8 games and allowed just 8 goals. The only Kings loss during that span was a 1-2 loss with Dubnyk getting the win over LA and Quick. Overs are the hot play in the NHL but with the scoring troubles that LA is having combined with thier need to lay back and help thier blueliners now due to injury makes me feel stronger about this Under-5 than usual. Quick will have a good game and Dubnyk should be spared from an onslaught of Kings shots so hopefully he also has a good game here... just not good enough to win. My guesstimate is... what else...? LAKINGS 2-1 AGAIN.

Phoenix at SJSharks - Under-5.5 (-120) - I don't see the Sharks scoring 6 goals in a period here. Historically the UNDER is 13-4-3 in the L-20 meetings between these two teams in San Jose however the Under is just 3-3 in the L-6 games. Smith (G-PHX) is expected to miss this game after getting injured last night at home vs Columbus (5-1 win by PHX). In his place should be Jason Labarbera whos last game in SJ was a 4-1 win by the Sharks over the Yotes on Dec. 23, 2010. In his career vs the Sharks, Labarbera is 3-8 and the UNDER is 1-10 in those games. Of those games played on the road in San Jose he is 3-3 and ALL SIX GAMES were UNDERS with none of the games having more than 5 goals scored in them. Niemi (G-SJS) is 6-4 vs PHX as a member of the Shraks and the Under is 4-5-1 in those games. When those games are played in San Jose, Niemi is 4-0 and the Under is 2-2 with Niemi giving up 8 goals in the 4 games (3,1,3,1) combined. I feel strongly that this game will be a 3-1 or 3-2 finals score with the Sharks hopefully winning again to go 3-0 on the season. This is the Sharks home opener. The only other team that has not played at home YET is the Ducks.

I also have some round robin parlays using the NYRangers, Ottawa, LAKings and SJSharks. All together I have 6 parlays of 2 teams in each using those teams. Each parlay is for 1 unit risked. I will post them later today... need a break for now.

Good Luck and Good Hockey

I forgot to include...

LAKINGS -125 at Edmonton - See writeup for total above.

Corrected stats with an added clarification also.

Round Robin Parlays (These full unit risked parlay will be included in my record as 1 play per parlay).

NYR and OTT - 1 unit to win 2.818 units

NYR and LAK - 1 unit to win 2.600 units

NYR and SJS - 1 unit to win 2.143 units

OTT and LAK - 1 unit to win 2.436 units

OTT and SJS - 1 unit to win 2.000 units

LAK and SJS - 1 unit to win 1.829 units

I also have solo SU wagers on all these teams EXCEPT SJS... see writeups.

Could be a good day... could be a disaster.

Stat correction:

Phoenix at SJSharks - Under-5.5 (-120) - I don't see the Sharks scoring 6 goals in a period here. Historically the UNDER is 13-4-3 in the L-20 meetings between these two teams in San Jose however the Under is just 3-3 in the L-6 games. Smith (G-PHX) is expected to miss this game after getting injured last night at home vs Columbus (5-1 win by PHX). In his place should be Jason Labarbera whos last game in SJ was a 4-1 win by the Sharks over the Yotes on Dec. 23, 2010. In his career vs the Sharks, Labarbera is 3-8 and the UNDER is 10-1 in those games. Of those games played on the road in San Jose he is 3-3 and ALL SIX GAMES were UNDERS with none of the games having more than 5 goals scored in them. Niemi (G-SJS) is 6-4 vs PHX as a member of the Shraks and the Under is 4-5-1 in those games. When those games are played in San Jose, Niemi is 4-0 and the Under is 2-2 with Niemi giving up 8 goals in the 4 games (3,1,3,1) combined. I feel strongly that this game will be a 3-1 or 3-2 finals score with the Sharks hopefully winning again to go 3-0 on the season. This is the Sharks home opener. The only other team that has not played at home YET is the Ducks.

Then it's better for me... as I explained in my writeup that Miller has struggled in Carolina especially when facing them w/Ward in the oppo crease (Miller is 2-7 in that situation). Enroth is 2-0 vs CAR and both were at CAR with a 1-0 record going up against them w/Ward and 1-0 at CAR w/Boucher.