happycap's totals - Oct 27

I would feel differently about this "argument" we are having if I was having it with a couple of guys who were ahead of me in units doing what they do... no offense, but I wouldn't take this tone with you two gentlemen if the roles were reversed...do what you do boys, do what you do 

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

I am doing the math.  I still don't understand why you are doing what you're doing.

Your explanation says that this minimizes losses to 2 units (even though 3-2 both games would result in a loss of much more than 2 units).  Why is taking the under in both games, at +ML not a safer and simpler bet?  Maximum loss 2 units, maximum gain is 2+ units, 1-1 is a minimal gain, but a gain nonetheless. 

Not trying to be a dick or anything happy, I respect you very much as a capper.  Just don't fully understand the logic that's all.

Thanks for saying so, but I barely know you, and I don't go around putting  signs in the threads of people I respect and barely know

3-2 is a very dangerous score and the one I fear most... but it doesn't subject me to "much more" than a 2 unit loss.

NO question that would suck lol...

However, if even ONE of the games falls into the winning numbers category then I will make somewhat more than I would have taking each full game under. 

Also, if both games end, for instance, 4-2, 5-2, 5-1 etc. then I win 2 units instead of losing 2

On a side note:  My beer league team woulda beat them dux

Happycap,

I like the play alot.  there are actually only 2 really bad senrios and that is both games over 5.5 or 3-2 Oilers and 4-3 in detroit game.  (there are few more ways to lose but not as bad) and the ways to win are more bountiful.

What people are not getting is that you are actually only betting the under and you made that under 7 with both teams having to score 3..for example 6-1 u win.

Thank you - well put - I do appreciate your dilligence in seeking out the advantages inherent in the play and recording them here for the forum 

Oh I understand....I'm fearing the 4-3 

I like the chance he's taking here I'm just not sure I would do it..

thats his thing, and I wish him all the success in this venture!

JP, 3-2 in both games together, is very concerning, but only because it would mean I would have made 2 units betting the game totals instead.

I really see a 4-2 as a very distinct possibility in each game, which is why I opted to play TTs with the hedge added into the mix

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Why don't you just bet on the Under of each game.  1 unit each.  Maximum loss is still 2 units.  Maximum gain is over 2 units as I see both probably moving into the +ML. 

if he bet the unders in both games he would lose 2 units plus vig.  this way worse case he loses only 2 units... no vig... plus both games could be over and he wins 4 out of 6, If the games are 4-2 for example...

This is a really smart play!

I will be watching these two games...I'm not making a play on them...I wanna see how this pans out!

Happy,

I follow your picks alot and even though I love the pick and the stragety behind it, I can not pick team total o/u on my book.  So would you suggest unders in the two games if I can't get tt o/u?

"I am betting that 2 of these 4 teams will score fewer than 3 goals - ok??  The OVER is a hedge... if both games end 2-1 I will wish I hadn't hedged..."

So you are saying that you choose to win less money, just for the hell of it.

Listen to yourself.  You are actually saying that given a choice between making more money or making less money  you would take less, and not only take less but argue that it is somehow smart!

Don't let my record fool you big boy...