Posted:
#576
0
To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....
Posted:
#577
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
So you bet a 7 team parlay, knowing you are going to hedge the 7th game.
You obviously didnt read this thread.
Simple question - why wouldnt you just bet a 6 team parlay?
YOU OBVIOUSLY DIDN'T READ MY POST, THE 7TH GAME (THE MONDAY NITE GAME) ALMOST ALWAYS HAS LINE MOVES. YOU CAN WIN BOTH BETS, YOU CAN PUSH ONE BET AND WIN THE OTHER (2 WAYS) AND YOU WILL ALWAYS GET THE 6 TEAMER VALUE. WHEN YOU BET A PARLAY ALWAYS PUT A GAME THAT HASN'T KICKOFF YET AS YOUR LAST GAME.
0
Posted:
#578
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
1. Hedging 424 - guaranteed every time
2. Don’t hedge 500 - hit or miss, 50/50 chance everytime
3. Leave the last game off of the parlay 600 - only comes about if you hit the first three games leading you back to choosing between 1 and 2
i think my point was more about guaranteed vs non guaranteed profits if you have hit all but 1 leg of the parlay
if you have 4 such parlays and you hedge evertytime using your numbers
1 - 424 * 4 = 1696 profit
2 - 500 * 2(ev) = 1000 profit
thats IF you can consitently expect to hit the last leg 50% of the time. i dont think anything is guaranteed
in the grand scheme yes hedging is the worst option but to me it comes down to guaranteed money vs risk. i will choose guaranteed money almost every time
I will put the guaranteed money in my pocket everytime..........
0
Posted:
#580
Vanzack, I get your point when talking about the general pointspread bets. I will do some hedging also. What I look for is line movement on a later game, such as the Saints/49ers where it opened at 4.5 and has gone to 6. I have the Saints at -5 and will look to hedge the dog at +6 or better.
I also back up my 4 teamer with a 3-team round robin, this way if I'm alive on Monday night, I have locked in a profit with a possible middle. At that point, I consider the Monday night hedge like I would with a smaller bet with the chance with a chance to win both sides or even push a side and win a side.
The main reason I like the hedge is that 50% chance of winning the last game seems to lose more often than 50% when you get to it. Your original 4 teamer had 16-1 odds against and it doesn't know which is the first game or the last game.
So you could look at it either way.
game 1= 16-1...game 1= 50/50
game 2= 8-1...game 2= 4-1
game 3= 4-1...game 3= 8-1
game 4= 50/50...game 4= 16-1
your true odds are 16-1 either way of bringing all 4 teams in.
So if you play the 3-teamer with a planned hedge 4-teamer, you get the 600 and bank part of that 4 teamer. That's a nice end to the week after sweating out Sunday.
0
= if you are thinking short term and getting money now
= if you are thinking long term, mathematically/logically and are willing to let your money grow over time
Posted:
#582
This thread is filled with all kinds of nonsense and I honestly can't believe it has gone on this long. I don't believe in hedging. I'm not going to rant and rave about why I don't hedge. If you like hedging, fine, it's your money. It's not for me though. I'd rather take picks I like and if those hit, then I'll rollover some of those winnings into another pick. Do what you want, it's your money. I'm not saying anyone is wrong for hedging. I just don't agree with it. What I do disagree with is pompous, arrogant, shitheads who come into forums and talk about their professions and social status, and how much more money they wager than other cappers (i.e. "I bet 16k last weekend on college and pro football and that's more money than most people bet in a year). You're a douche. Good for you if you wager 16k and good for you if you wager $16. But guess what? I don't give a shit. Bet your kid's college funds on a single game for all I care. But don't be condescending with your wagers. The fact that one would even bring this kind of business up spells out plain and simple that you're a prick. Not surprised that guy's a lawyer. Most of them are scumbags. Good post Van
0
If the last game loses everything is dust.
Posted:
#586
good post but i think you accidentally double counted your wagered amounts plus you need to include non wagered amount in "total pocket" value and subtract $ 100 for parlay loss - see red
had to edit length of original post to reply due to 7800 character limit
Quote Originally Posted by spiff:
Calculating EV
This is easy to prove due to our statistically perfect world and the fact that there are only 2 possibilities.
Option1 possibilities (Bet $100 to win $1000 and bet $576 to win $524 although each bet is mutually exclusive):
1) Parlay wins. Walk into sports book with $676 and walk out with $1100 ($100 + $1000).
Calculating EV
This is easy to prove due to our statistically perfect world and the fact that there are only 2 possibilities.
Option1 possibilities (Bet $100 to win $1000 and bet $576 to win $524 although each bet is mutually exclusive):
1) Parlay wins. Walk into sports book with $676 and walk out with $1100 ($100 + $1000).
*actually walks out with $ 1676 = 100 +1100 + 576 not wagered
2) Parlay loses. Walk into sports book with $676 and walk out with $1100 ($576 + $524).
*walks out with $ 1000 = $576 + $ 574 - 100 for losing parlay
Total amount in pocket once the sequence is over = $2200
Total amount wagered for the sequence = $1352
*only $ 676 wagered $ 100 parlay + $ 576 hedge
$2200 / $1352 = $1.63
* $ 2200 only if both parlay +hedge win/ $ 676 amount wagered
Each dollar wagered is worth $1.63.
Option2:
This option results in losing $100 half the time so:
EL = -$100 x (1 / 2) = -$50
This option results in winning $1000 half the time so:
EW = $1000 x (1 / 2) = $500
The expected gain of this sequence:
EG = EW + EL = $500 + (-$50) = $450
The amount you can expect to win on every dollar bet:
EQ = ($450 / $100) = $4.50
The expected value (EV) of each dollar bet is:
EV = $1 + $4.50 = $5.50
Again only 2 possibilities so the proof is easy due to our statistically perfect world.
Option2 possibilities (Bet $100 to win $1000 or lose $100):
1) Parlay wins. Walk into sports book with $100 and walk out with $1100 ($100 + $1000).
2) Parlay loses. Walk into sports book with $100 and walk out with $0.
Total amount in pocket once the sequence is over = $1100
Total amount wagered for the sequence = $200
* only $ 100 wagered = $ 100 (1) + $0 (2)
$1100 / $200 = $5.50
* $ 1100/100 = $ 11
Each dollar wagered is worth $5.50.
Option3:
As in Option1 there is no possibility of “losing” (see assumption #3) so AL an OL are both 0:
EL = $0 x 0 = $0
There is only 1 possibility so:
AW = $600
OW = (1 / 1) = 1
EW = $600 x 1 = $600
The expected gain is the same as the expected win since there is no loss component:
EG = EW + EL = $600 + $0 = $600
The amount you can expect to win on every dollar bet:
EQ = ($600 / $100) = $6.00
The expected value (EV) of each dollar bet is:
EV = $1 + $6.00 = $7.00
Even easier to prove with only one possibility as you walk in with $100 and walk out with $700. Each dollar wagered is worth $7.00.
Option1A:
I noticed quite a few posters stating they only hedge enough to cover the parlay bet. Let’s call that Option1A. So the hedge bet is $110 to win $100 which yields 1 win of $890 and 1 loss of $0.
AL = $0
OL = (1 / 2) = 0.5
EL = $0 x 0.5 = $0
AW = $890
OW = (1 / 2) = 0.5
EW = $890 x 0.5 = $445
EG = EW + EL = $445 + $0 = $445
EQ = EG / WA = ($445 / $210) = $2.12
EV = 1 + EQ = $1 + $2.12 = $3.12
Option1 possibilities (Bet $100 to win $1000 and bet $110 to win $100 although each bet is mutually exclusive):
1) Parlay wins. Walk into sports book with $210 and walk out with $1100 ($100 + $1000).
* $100 + $ 1000 + $ 110 not wagered = $ 1210
2) Parlay loses. Walk into sports book with $210 and walk out with $210 ($110 + $100).
* $ -100 (1) parlay loss + (2) $ 110 +$ 100 = $ 110
Total amount in pocket when leaving sports book = $1310
Total amount wagered = $420
* $ 100 + $ 110= $ 210 wagered
$1310 / $420 = $3.12
* only $ 210 wagered
Each dollar wagered was worth $3.12.
Summary:
Option1 EV = $1.63
Option1A EV = $3.12
Option2 EV = $5.50
Option3 EV = $7.00
Since each value is per dollar wagered it is even more clear which option is better statistically.
The biggest issue is the assumptions in calculating these numbers. The concept of EV (as most everything in statistics) is based on the Law of Large Numbers.
It is the concept that everything will converge to the EV as the iterations go to infinity. Therefore the EV’s above are where this situation would converge as the number of times one was in this situation approaches infinity. One assumption was that the 3 team parlay was already won (in other words was guaranteed in the calculations). The actual EV for a 3 team parlay at 6/1 is $0.875. In order to reach this situation you must actually beat 8/1 odds. So on average you will be in this situation twice each football season.
The assumption of living in a statistically perfect world also mucks the waters. You may hit the first 3 teams on a 4 team parlay once this season, twice next season and take Option2 but each time the parlay lost and Option1 or Option1A would have put you ahead of the game at that point. Then you may go the entire next season without the opportunity.
The best statement is this:
If you are in the position to hedge, you have already made a fundamental error.
If you played a parlay in the first place you have already given up on EV so if it suits you go ahead and hedge the bet. It is your money so do with it as you please.
0
Posted:
#587
van
if i can lock in a profit and minimize my risk i will do it. i dont really consider myself a gambler anyway...more of an investor of sorts
although i hate minimizing my profit, i do like guaranteed profit and little risk
this is very rare for me as i dont do parlays and teasers much if at all
Agree with you KOAJ
if i can lock in a profit and minimize my risk i will do it. i dont really consider myself a gambler anyway...more of an investor of sorts
although i hate minimizing my profit, i do like guaranteed profit and little risk
this is very rare for me as i dont do parlays and teasers much if at all
Agree with you KOAJ
0
Posted:
#589
Van if you are trying to convince someone not to take guaranteed money then you need to give your head a shake. People win the lottery every week and many opt for the cash payout vs. the consistent flow of money over 20 years. Even though in the long run the 20 years is a greater sum. Of course the present value is taken for many reasons, one being that life is terminal and there is no guarantee you will be around in 20 years or for that matter around long enough for the sample in your example to be large enough for those parlays to come through enough for the money to be greater. So there is nothing wrong with taking insurance or hedging the last game of a parlay.
Now, playing a parlay to begin with may be fundamentaly wrong. But once played hedging the last play if posed with the opportunity is the bettors choice. Call it buyers remorse if you like (I played a 4 team parlay but on second thought l maybe should have played a 3 teamer so l will take a guaranteed sum instead of incurring the risk of the 4th game.)
0
Posted:
#590
Quote Originally Posted by Chaka26:
good post but i think you accidentally double counted your wagered amounts plus you need to include non wagered amount in "total pocket" value and subtract $ 100 for parlay loss - see red
good post but i think you accidentally double counted your wagered amounts plus you need to include non wagered amount in "total pocket" value and subtract $ 100 for parlay loss - see red
You think incorrectly. You clearly did not understand my post.
Note that my post was based on the fact that hedging a parlay requires 2 separate bets. The original parlay and then the straight bet. If no line moves allow you to win both, lose both or push one occur then there are 2 possibilities. The parlay wins or the parlay loses. When the parlay wins it is implied that the straight bet loses (and vice-versa).
My original post is correct but I will address your "corrections" see blue for your red. It should be clearer now.
Option1 possibilities (Bet $100 to win $1000 and bet $576 to win $524 although each bet is mutually exclusive):
1) Parlay wins. Walk into sports book with $676 and walk out with $1100 ($100 + $1000).
*actually walks out with $ 1676 = 100 +1100 + 576 not wagered
Not wagered? I will re-phrase:
1) Parlay wins, hedge loses. In this option the hedge was made so that you would end up with the same amount either way. So you walk into sports book with $676 of which $100 is placed on the parlay and $576 is placed on the hedge bet. Since the parlay wins it pays $1100 (the $1000 win and $100 risk) so you walk out with $1100.
2) Parlay loses. Walk into sports book with $676 and walk out with $1100 ($576 + $524).
*walks out with $ 1000 = $576 + $ 574 - 100 for losing parlay
2) Parlay loses, hedge wins. Again, in this option the hedge was made so that you would end up with the same amount either way. So you walk into sports book with $676 of which $100 is placed on the parlay and $576 is placed on the hedge bet (I wouldn't think it would need to be said but I didn't think I would have to do this either but the bets are not made at the same time). Since the hedge bet wins it pays $1100 (the $524 win and $576 risk) so you walk out with $1100.
A $576 bet on a -110 bet pays $1100 ($576 risk and $524 win). If I have that ticket and a losing $100 parlay ticket how do I walk out with less then $1100? I don't even take the parlay ticket with me.
Total amount wagered for the sequence = $1352
*only $ 676 wagered $ 100 parlay + $ 576 hedge
The total amount wagered for the sequence is $1352. The sequence being one parlay winning (hedge bet loses) and one losing parlay (hedge bet wins).
Option2 possibilities (Bet $100 to win $1000 or lose $100):
1) Parlay wins. Walk into sports book with $100 and walk out with $1100 ($100 + $1000).
2) Parlay loses. Walk into sports book with $100 and walk out with $0.
Total amount wagered for the sequence = $200
* only $ 100 wagered = $ 100 (1) + $0 (2)
This option is simply betting the 4 team parlay and letting it ride with no hedge on the last game. There are 2 possibilities, win the parlay or lose the parlay.
The total amount wagered for the sequence is $200. The sequence being one win and one loss. I don't see how you can say that there was $0 wagered on possibility 2.
$1100 / $200 = $5.50
* $ 1100/100 = $ 11
Nope. See above. It is for the sequence which is a win and a loss so you divide by the $200 wagered on both bets.
Option1a possibilities (Bet $100 to win $1000 and bet $110 to win $100 although each bet is mutually exclusive):
1) Parlay wins. Walk into sports book with $210 and walk out with $1100 ($100 + $1000).
* $100 + $ 1000 + $ 110 not wagered = $ 1210
Not wagered? Let me re-phrase:
1) Parlay wins, hedge loses. In this option the hedge was made so that you would cover your parlay bet if the parlay lost. So you walk into sports book with $210 of which $100 is placed on the parlay and $110 is placed on the hedge bet. Since the parlay wins it pays $1100 (the $1000 win and $100 risk) so you walk out with $1100.
2) Parlay loses. Walk into sports book with $210 and walk out with $210 ($110 + $100).
* $ -100 (1) parlay loss + (2) $ 110 +$ 100 = $ 110
2) Parlay loses, hedge wins. Again, in this option the hedge was made so that you would cover your parlay bet if the parlay lost. So you walk into sports book with $210 of which $100 is placed on the parlay and $110 is placed on the hedge bet. Since the hedge bet wins it pays $210 (the $100 win and $110 risk) so you walk out with $210.
A $110 bet on a -110 bet pays $210 ($110 risk and $100 win). If I have that ticket and a losing $100 parlay ticket how do I walk out with less then $210? I don't even take the parlay ticket with me.
Total amount wagered = $420
* $ 100 + $ 110= $ 210 wagered
* only $ 210 wagered
The total amount wagered for the sequence is $420. The sequence being one parlay winning (with the associated hedge bet loss) and one losing parlay (with the associated hedge bet win).
0
Posted:
#591
it seems like based on the comments made by some very stupid covers members, the only guaranteed money we should be referring to is that of the sportsbooks who book the action of people who like to hedge(are you people really that f'in stupid, how can you not understand that hedging is idiotic....morons you should never be in a position to hedge, leave the last game(later game) off of your parlay!
0
Posted:
#592
i just found this thread now and im kind of annoyed it took this long...i started following vanzack in the world cup this year and i must say dude, you're phenomenal... as for hedging, i used to do exactly what you said, put the last team of a parlay in as one that starts later than the rest...i read the first couple posts you made and they were quite easy to understand, i will simply never hedge again, if the thought enters my mind, im gonna leave the last team out just like you said, mathematically it makes perfect sense. i dunno about other covers bettors, but i bet to win. while hedging guarantees some profit in a 4 team parlay, simply putting in a 3 team parlay wins more and more often. i cannot believe how long it took people to understand your point. most of the people arguing against you arent even responding to your points, theyre just mindlessly saying "no im right." every day i think i realize how dumb the average american is and every day im proven wrong. the stupidity is mindboggling... keep up the good work vanzack
0
Posted:
#595
3 years later - and I am still dumbfounded by the widespread misinformation about "guaranteed money". You guarantee yourself MORE money if you dont hedge, or better yet dont put yourself in a position to hedge.
The most important statement in this thread - and one that cant be argued is:
IF YOU ARE IN A POSITION TO HEDGE, YOU HAVE ALREADY MADE A FUNDAMENTAL MISTAKE.
That means that even if you have a choice of hedging - you have already fucked up.
This thread is an incredible study in just how misinformed gamblers can be about math and probability, and how they will argue until they are blue in the face against math. It is really incredible.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#596
Quote Originally Posted by KittyKatz286:
i just found this thread now and im kind of annoyed it took this long...i started following vanzack in the world cup this year and i must say dude, you're phenomenal... as for hedging, i used to do exactly what you said, put the last team of a parlay in as one that starts later than the rest...i read the first couple posts you made and they were quite easy to understand, i will simply never hedge again, if the thought enters my mind, im gonna leave the last team out just like you said, mathematically it makes perfect sense. i dunno about other covers bettors, but i bet to win. while hedging guarantees some profit in a 4 team parlay, simply putting in a 3 team parlay wins more and more often. i cannot believe how long it took people to understand your point. most of the people arguing against you arent even responding to your points, theyre just mindlessly saying "no im right." every day i think i realize how dumb the average american is and every day im proven wrong. the stupidity is mindboggling... keep up the good work vanzack
i just found this thread now and im kind of annoyed it took this long...i started following vanzack in the world cup this year and i must say dude, you're phenomenal... as for hedging, i used to do exactly what you said, put the last team of a parlay in as one that starts later than the rest...i read the first couple posts you made and they were quite easy to understand, i will simply never hedge again, if the thought enters my mind, im gonna leave the last team out just like you said, mathematically it makes perfect sense. i dunno about other covers bettors, but i bet to win. while hedging guarantees some profit in a 4 team parlay, simply putting in a 3 team parlay wins more and more often. i cannot believe how long it took people to understand your point. most of the people arguing against you arent even responding to your points, theyre just mindlessly saying "no im right." every day i think i realize how dumb the average american is and every day im proven wrong. the stupidity is mindboggling... keep up the good work vanzack
Bingo. Congratulations.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#597
God I wish this over inflated ego would just shut the hell up !
You really think you are so f'ing smart.
If I thought as highly of myself as you do I would do what I recommend you do..............GO F@#% YOURSELF!!!!
Talking to Van...what happened to your pic with you flashing like 10 $20 bills ..playa!!!
0
Posted:
#598
Quote Originally Posted by Z-Man:
God I wish this over inflated ego would just shut the hell up !
You really think you are so f'ing smart.
If I thought as highly of myself as you do I would do what I recommend you do..............GO F@#% YOURSELF!!!!
Talking to Van...what happened to your pic with you flashing like 10 $20 bills ..playa!!!
The downside of being smarter than everyone else is sometimes you are assumed to be egotistical.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#599
Missed this the first time around I aint reading 24 pages so I will mention the psychological angle of why people hedge.
The math on the 3 to 4 teamer is very insightful the only problem is does someone have the balls to bet all of their winning on the 4th game.
Here is a scenerio
1. Start with $100 hit a 3 team parlay paying 6-1 so now you have $700 most people will not have the confidence to ride out the $700 on the last game. They would in most scenerios bet $200 and guarentee themselves a balance of $500.
2. Its like a buddy saying Iam going to bet $200 on black 4 straight times and walk away. First bet $200 no big deal second bet $400 manageable 3rd bet $800 buddy might be shaking last bet $1600 I guarentee most people will say fuck it and bet $600 tops, and pocket the $1000.
Even though we are all gamblers we like when we can guarentee a profit.
Van is not the almighty he was exposed once years ago, but anybody would be stupid to go against him. He's intelligent, brings more to the table than most, and has a shitload of time on his hands to make you look and feel stupid.
0
Posted:
#600
People are arguing hard reason and logic? vanzack clearly laid out a simple post in the beginning which no one has directly refuted.
I like to consider myself somewhat of a seasoned gambler but I can admit when I'm wrong, and I was wrong for playing all those next day games (god, I would even do it over a couple of days so I could do multiple hedges!). All I can say is thank you... Wish I would have read this sooner.
I like to consider myself somewhat of a seasoned gambler but I can admit when I'm wrong, and I was wrong for playing all those next day games (god, I would even do it over a couple of days so I could do multiple hedges!). All I can say is thank you... Wish I would have read this sooner.
0
Hot Forum Topics
