All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

...

Participants:

Posts: 735

DevilFan

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2006

Posts: 13492

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 9:39 AM ET #301

Does 2+2 = 4?

Am I 31?

Am I married with a 2 year old daughter?

Do I gamble thousands of dollars a night? Not proud of it, but

Is my daughter's birthday in a couple of months? It's in July.

Did I wager 16,000 last saturday on football? No, if you read my post, it was football AND baseball.

Am I an attorney in New York?

Is my anniversary tomorrow? My anniversary is in November.

Will it be 10 years? It will be 6 years.

Do I have a german shephard? No, I actually have two maltese dogs. My daughter loves them.

Will I continue to hedge and lock in a guaran-damn-teed profit if the opportunity presents itself

Do I give two shits what any of you jerkoffs have to say?

Can I pay the hotdog vendor with cash?

Can I pay the hot dog vendor with expected value?

Do I prefer the known vs. the unknown?

Was this a great thread?

petergriffin1

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 4211

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 10:04 AM ET #302

I'm shocked this thread has continued on for so long. Is it really that hard to grasp the concept to not put late games on a parlay? Hedging will guarantee money but the vig isn't free. Again, DO NOT PUT LATE GAMES OR GAMES THAT START A DAY LATER ON YOUR PARLAYS UNLESS YOU KNOW YOU'LL HAVE THE BALLS TO RIDE IT OUT. You can let all your earlier action finish and if your parlay hits, then you can decide how much you want to put on that last team without paying the vig associated with hedging. How can anybody argue that putting the later starting game on and hedging is a better strategy? Again, yes it guarantees $$$ but it's STUPID.

GWarner27

Hall of Fame

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 20963

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 12:32 PM ET #303

Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:

van

if i can lock in a profit and minimize my risk i will do it. i dont really consider myself a gambler anyway...more of an investor of sorts

although i hate minimizing my profit, i do like guaranteed profit and little risk

this is very rare for me as i dont do parlays and teasers much if at all

i completely agree.

mikesong2007

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 299

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 1:03 PM ET #304

Can we just talk about football and who's going to cover this week2?

LUNCHBOX

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2004

Posts: 7460

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 1:22 PM ET #305

Will I continue to hedge and lock in a guaran-damn-teed profit if the opportunity presents itself

You are hopeless

You still dont get that the argument here isnt about hedging or not, its about the fact that you shouldnt put yourself in the position to hedge.

You would rather pay the hotdog vendor with 450 in your pocket than with 600. You keep thinking you are locking in guaranteed money while the others are dealing with the unknown. The point we keep trying to make is that every time you are in position to hedge your parlay, you should have already won a smaller parlay if you are concerned about making money. There is nothing unknown about having already cashed a parlay while people like you debate how to hedge their one leg longer parlay.

WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE:

1) 600 GUARAN-DAMN-TEED

2) 100 to win 1000 4 team parlay with one leg left

YOU KEEP CHOOSING OPTION 2!!!

DevilFan...what you keep missing is that the people arguing with you are locking in more guaranteed money with a one-leg shorter parlay every time you find yourself with an opportunity to hedge. Generally speaking the only opportunity to hedge a parlay is if all the legs but one have won already, and there is still time to bet the last leg. DONT YOU SEE WE ARE JUST SAYING LEAVE THAT LEG OUT.....THATS THE WAY TO GUARAN-DAMN-TEE MONEY YOU MORON!! EVERY FUCKING TIME YOU ARE IN YOUR PRECIOUS POSITION TO HEDGE, JUST THINK ABOUT HOW MUCH MURE GUARAN-FUCKING-TEED MONEY YOU WOULD HAVE MADE IF YOU JUST DID A SMALLER PARLAY. Again, you would rather be 3-0 with one leg open in a 100 to win 1000 4 team parlay, than be 3-0 with NO UNKNOWN in a 100 to win 600 3 team parlay. HOW DOES ANYONE WITH A BRAIN NOT GET THIS!!!!!

Read this again from my post above:

Wow DevilFan you really dont get it....

Simply now....these guys would rather HAVE ALREADY CASHED A THREE TEAM PARLAY every time you are in a position to hedge your almost won 4 teamer. READ THAT AGAIN. Every time you are locking in guaranteed money with your hedge, the point is you would have made more money with a smaller parlay that would have already cashed. EVERY SINGLE FREAKING TIME YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT LOCKING IN MONEY, THE PEOPLE YOU ARE ARGUING WITH WOULD HAVE ALREADY LOCKED IN MORE!!!! Its not about whether or not to hedge, its about whether or not to have those extra legs. You should never be in a position to hedge parlays because you shouldnt have legs that start later.

Why do idiots piss me off so much? Its baffling how stubborn devil is here in not just realizing that leaving the later leg off is clearly the way to go....has nothing to do with unknowns or locking in guaranteed money. There is less unknown and more guarantees going 3-0 in a 3 teamer compared to starting 3-0 with a 4 teamer, yet you laugh at us for being too risky....idiot

Will I continue to hedge and lock in a guaran-damn-teed profit if the opportunity presents itself

You are hopeless

You still dont get that the argument here isnt about hedging or not, its about the fact that you shouldnt put yourself in the position to hedge.

WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE:

1) 600 GUARAN-DAMN-TEED

2) 100 to win 1000 4 team parlay with one leg left

YOU KEEP CHOOSING OPTION 2!!!

Read this again from my post above:

Wow DevilFan you really dont get it....

DevilFan

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2006

Posts: 13492

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 1:42 PM ET #306

I love my guaranteed money

Money in my pocket

A dollar a day keeps the creditors away

Oh I love me some guarantdamnteed money

Me love it long time

(Me-Bookie)

(After taking my guaranteed money)

petergriffin1

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 4211

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 1:56 PM ET #307

Wow Lunchbox dumbed it down as much as possible and you still don't get it? And you claim to be a lawyer?

The rest of us are already doing the

after winning our one leg shorter parlay while you are dumping some of your winnings off by hedging a late game.

LUNCHBOX

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2004

Posts: 7460

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 1:58 PM ET #308

You are such a moron devilfan....you are the type of person that would take 4 one dollar bills over one 5 dollar bill. After all, you are choosing guaranteeing yourself 450 instead of guaranteeing yourself 600 and seem to be proud of it.

Which would you rather have:

4 team parlay: Winner-Winner-Winner-Pending 100-1000
3 team parlay: Winner-Winner-Winner 100-600

Go ahead and guarantee your 450 with your precious hedging opp
You look at the 4 teamer as guaranteed money and the 3 teamer as unknown...once again, you are a fucking moron.

LUNCHBOX

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2004

Posts: 7460

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 2:05 PM ET #309

LESSON OF THIS THREAD:

THE PEOPLE WHO TEND TO PARLAY A LOT, ARE THE ONES WHO DON'T UNDERSTAND HOW TO DO IT

THE PEOPLE WHO UNDERSTAND HOW PARLAYS WORK, ARE THE ONES WHO DON'T USE THEM

ps..koaj.,..Im not putting you in group 1, I know you dont parlay and support straight and flat betting

lbcake

Hall of Fame

Joined: May, 2005

Posts: 27074

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 2:06 PM ET #310

He's just fucking with everyone. Nobody can be that stupid.

If he isn't there is absolutely no way this guy is a lawyer. Any one with a degree would have this figured out half way through this thread.

Devilfan please tell us your fucking around and that you get this.

lbcake

Hall of Fame

Joined: May, 2005

Posts: 27074

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 2:09 PM ET #311

fuck..."you're"

LUNCHBOX

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2004

Posts: 7460

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 2:13 PM ET #312

He's just fucking with everyone

I agree with this lbcake

Nobody can be that stupid.

I disagree with this

He still thinks he's taking guaranteed money instead of taking a risk with the unknown, because he can only look at it from the stance of the bet having already been placed. 'Once the bet is placed why wouldnt I hedge if given the chance' is his attitude, not understanding we are saying the mistake comes in with how the bet was placed in the first place.

Thnks petergriffin

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 2:21 PM ET #313

I agree, I think he really is that stupid.

Actually, Im convinced he is that stupid.

If he had 2 boxes, one had 100k dollars and one had zero dollars, and someone told devilfan that he had the choice to open one box and keep its contents, or take 10K of "guarandamnteed" money, he would take the 10K.

He doesnt care that his position is worth 50K, he only cares about paying the hotdog vendor or whatever, so he takes the 10K.

He also has no basis to how much he will take (or more accurately get shortchanged), so sometimes if his gut tells him to he could be actually losing 10% up to 99% of what his position is worth, and he doesnt care because he can pay the hotdog vendor.

He really is this stupid, and it really is scary that this guy could be defending you at a murder trial. I dont want an attorney that cant accurately access risk, and even worse one that discounts that it is even important in the first place.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

DevilFan

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2006

Posts: 13492

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 2:29 PM ET #314

I also got a bridge to sell you.

You jackasses are so damn gullible. If you can't see or read the sarcasm in my comments, then you are the "moron"

LUNCHBOX

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2004

Posts: 7460

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 2:35 PM ET #315

Oh we see the sarcasm, its just a cover up instead of admitting you are wrong.

I dont believe you get this though, you will be posting a thread next time you have a chance to guarantee money by hedging a 4 team parlay monday night that has 3 winning sunday legs.

These sarcastic and poor attempts at being funny while 'fucking with everyone' as lbcake said (everyone gets that) still show that you dont get it:

Will I continue to hedge and lock in a guaran-damn-teed profit if the opportunity presents itself

Can I pay the hotdog vendor with cash?

Can I pay the hot dog vendor with expected value?

Do I prefer the known vs. the unknown?

LUNCHBOX

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2004

Posts: 7460

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 2:51 PM ET #316

Anytime you can guarantee yourself $, you should consider taking it. Alot of time I will put together a bullshit parlay with a late game in there just case I hit the early ones, I can hedge out and guarante $.

Was this a sarcastic post? I just re-read you first 5 or 6 posts in this thread....priceless

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 3:08 PM ET #317

Its very obvious from his first dozen posts in this thread that he wasnt sarcastic.

He is running in place to try and not look like a moron, but thank goodness for chronological records in a thread like this.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

nDn_Investor

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 804

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 3:14 PM ET #318

This is by far one of the best threads I've read since becoming a member. Very informative Van.

I understand how people can go both ways on this. If your an investor you'll want to Hedge to protect your investment... if your a gambler I say let it ride.

Furthermore I wouldn't let parlays carry over to the next day. Personally I like parlaying all day games or all night games. I mean unless its an obvious game that you know will hit (ala LSU vs Miss. State or something wacky like that).

I hate letting parlays carry over to the afternoon, evening, or next day and it doesn't hit.

Generally I'll do a 3 team parlay on College day games, another 3 team on night games.... and a 3 teamer on NFL, not including Sunday Night football.

Anyways everyone is entitled to their own philosophies and how they like to bet. That's how I like to do it.

Nick

p.s.- A bit of advice from experience for the newer bettors. Don't get caught up in parlay odds. After 4 teams the payouts get really tempting but try to steer clear once your parlays are $100 or more. 6 to 1 on a 3 teamer is an excellent payout and has high probability of hitting. If its a $10 parlay knock yourself silly and do whatever you want, and if you get lucky great!

nDn_Investor

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 804

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 3:38 PM ET #319

Oh yea and DevilFan.... we aren't buying the sarcasm, based on your first 10,000 posts we can all agree that you are about 3 grapes short of a fruitcake and if you were my attorney I'd have the state BAR on speed dial.

VAN - chronological order so totally reeks of awesomeness I have to agree haha.

DevilFan

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2006

Posts: 13492

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 4:35 PM ET #320

No you jackasses.. I have no problem hedging out of a parlay that guarantees me money... the point you are missing and which I wrote above is if I hedge out of 3 parlays a year, that is a lot... I don't do it enough over the course of a season to let the 50% odds come into play... why is that so difficult for you uneducated morons to understand... I told you I cant even remember the last time it was done... don't even know what sport it was.... i barely plays parlays to begin with... i am growing tired of repeating myself to clowns...

The sarcasm comes into play when i write things and post a or a or even a .

I love how obsessed you guys are with me.

I want to bet a parlay now with 4 teams and have one playing tomorrow just so I can get you guys all fired up again .

LUNCHBOX

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2004

Posts: 7460

Posted: Sep. 13, 2007 - 5:15 PM ET #321

Holy Shit!!! You really are that dumb!!!

Read this again:

Anytime you place a parlay that even has the potential to be hedged, you are screwing yourself. Thats not an opinion, its a fact. If you hedge, you were better off doing a parlay without the last leg. If you dont hedge and win, you were still better off doing the parlay without the last leg and betting the last leg straight.

Either way, you just keep making yourself look like more and more of a moron by saying you would do this or that when in the position to hedge when everyone in here keeps telling you the whole point is that you shouldnt be in a position to hedge because that means you have legs in a parlay starting after other legs have ended.

You continue to say you have no problem hedging out a parlay that guarantees you money, which means you have no problem placing a parlay that has a leg that starts after the other games are in. Basically you are saying you have no problem betting the monday night fave at -3 -120 on saturday, and then betting the dog +3 -110 on monday because you had a good day sunday. Why not just wait to place the bet assuming you arent trying to play the line movement (which you clearly arent in your parlays)

Would you hedge a 2 team parlay if given the chance?

GL to all...I cant debate FACTS anymore.