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Would you be willing to lay 15 to the Jets @ Houston?

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:




That is the craziest thing I have read all day.

Clearly if houston covers, and houston bettors have sound reasoning as to why they placed their wagers on houston (there are tons)

that is clear justification, just saying


this is in the jets favor


.

regular season favorites of more than 6 points are 0-18 ATS if they were outgained last week but won that game by 17-28 points.
afc south teams on the road after hosting tennessee titans are 0-15 ATS since 2003. take away the teams that were on 5 + winning streak and you will get this: 0-12 straight up and 0-12 ATS. all 12 lost by at least 7 points and last 11 lost by doudble digits. 9 of last 10 lost ATS by double digits as well

You make me feel better about my JETS play!!
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by DaGmen:



you already know... 34-6 TEXANS.... Il give the jets a TD MAYBE!!!!!

34-6 ... 34-7 if the jets decide to really show up and ball out

Maybe so, but that is not the point before kickoff. 9 points is a shitload.
 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:




That is the craziest thing I have read all day.

Clearly if houston covers, and houston bettors have sound reasoning as to why they placed their wagers on houston (there are tons)

that is clear justification, just saying


this is in the jets favor


.

regular season favorites of more than 6 points are 0-18 ATS if they were outgained last week but won that game by 17-28 points.
afc south teams on the road after hosting tennessee titans are 0-15 ATS since 2003. take away the teams that were on 5 + winning streak and you will get this: 0-12 straight up and 0-12 ATS. all 12 lost by at least 7 points and last 11 lost by doudble digits. 9 of last 10 lost ATS by double digits as well

These trends are possibly the most stupid thing i've ever read.  Please tell me what trends dating back to 2003 have to do with today's texans or jets?  Do people really base wagers on this stuff?

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:




That is the craziest thing I have read all day.

Clearly if houston covers, and houston bettors have sound reasoning as to why they placed their wagers on houston (there are tons)

that is clear justification, just saying


this is in the jets favor


.

regular season favorites of more than 6 points are 0-18 ATS if they were outgained last week but won that game by 17-28 points.
afc south teams on the road after hosting tennessee titans are 0-15 ATS since 2003. take away the teams that were on 5 + winning streak and you will get this: 0-12 straight up and 0-12 ATS. all 12 lost by at least 7 points and last 11 lost by doudble digits. 9 of last 10 lost ATS by double digits as well


It's really not crazy. Laying 9 to a .500 team AT HOME is just about as bad a line as you can find! That's the point. There are a whole slate of games waiting next week for you to cherry pick from.
 
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Posted: #30
scalabrine, the michael larson of covers
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

 well said.

Possible rain, 2 teams that look for opportunities to run the ball and whose defenses are both better against the pass than the run (on a yds/play average basis, relative to the rest of the league).....under it is.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

There is no justification for playing the favorite tonite, even if they wind up winning by double digits. The under 40.5 is the smart bet here.

Possible rain, 2 teams that look for opportunities to run the ball and whose defenses are both better against the pass than the run (on a yds/play average basis, relative to the rest of the league).....under it is.

Sorry meant to reply to this post, not previous one.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:

scalabrine, the michael larson of covers
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:




That is the craziest thing I have read all day.

Clearly if houston covers, and houston bettors have sound reasoning as to why they placed their wagers on houston (there are tons)

that is clear justification, just saying


this is in the jets favor


.

regular season favorites of more than 6 points are 0-18 ATS if they were outgained last week but won that game by 17-28 points.
afc south teams on the road after hosting tennessee titans are 0-15 ATS since 2003. take away the teams that were on 5 + winning streak and you will get this: 0-12 straight up and 0-12 ATS. all 12 lost by at least 7 points and last 11 lost by doudble digits. 9 of last 10 lost ATS by double digits as well

That's really good stuff. There's often sound reasoning behind some of these trends. Teams that come off a blowout win despite not winning the battle of the boxscore are often overconfident of their abilty.

I'm still thinking how much I want to bet on Tennessee on Saturday. It may be a lot.  
 
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Posted: #35
The only reason this line is 9 -10 is the fact that the jets got embarrased and shut out last week...
 
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Posted: #36

I love the houston -24.5 pick.  The biggest line i could get with my local was houston -14.5 at +225. 


NFL
 [10361] HOU TEXANS - ADJ LINE -14½+220
300 / 660

 
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Posted: #37

home field isnt a cut and dry 3 points,nor is it even close to 6-7.It's different for every team. some maybe -6 some may be -1,some maybe dont have any at all and are +3 or more.

How's that jags home field working out?

 
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Posted: #38
Wow. The line is up to +10 -105 on Bovada. Everyone who got hammered yesterday are looking for salvation through Houston...


 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by GraniteStateKid:

I love the houston -24.5 pick.  The biggest line i could get with my local was houston -14.5 at +225. 


NFL
 [10361] HOU TEXANS - ADJ LINE -14½+220
300 / 660


Really? $300 laying 2 TD's and 1/2...
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Plisskin76:

home field isnt a cut and dry 3 points,nor is it even close to 6-7.It's different for every team. some maybe -6 some may be -1,some maybe dont have any at all and are +3 or more.

How's that jags home field working out?


Wrong. 

That is the standard. The preseason lines can be used as a guide for understanding this. Since the bookies have no idea who will come to play, home teams are typically favored by 3, that is, the game would be even on neutral field for two average teams.
 
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Posted: #41
This is the trap game tonight you guy.The jet will have the 12 and 13 man beside them and they will win or at least cover
 
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Posted: #42

there is absolutely no reason to back a fat (don't care how much he lost, at heart he's a fat guy), loud-mouthed, toe-sucking pervert who has no businees being a head coach.

plus, there is no way in hell espn will allow the jets to be within two touchdowns--this would kill all of their tuesday morning talk  shows centered around whether it's now 'tebow-time'.  this is the lock, not the game itself.

 
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Posted: #43

Scal...

Without giving me anything about home team and underdogs on monday nights and any of that angle stuff, tell me one matchup on the field where you think the Jets even come close to Texas. 

Texas top running back against leagues worst rush defense.

Texas 3rd best pass defense against 28 ranked Sanchez

Texas league best run defense against 25th ranked Jets run game.

Shaub and a healthy offense against Jets without Revis.

What on the field makes you think the Jets can hang here?  And I'm a DIE HARD JETS FAN!

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Still doesn't justify 9 at home...


exactly
 
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Posted: #45
Also stop talking about how they are a 2-2 team.  They are a 2-2 team with their best defensive player (the guy the entire scheme is built around) and their only offensive weapon.  Those guys are gone now as is Keller and Hill.  Do you totally discount the fact that arguably the 3 most important players on the team are out?
 
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Posted: #46

Also, about the 12th and 13th man behind them.... you don't know the Jets.  The second Sanchez is 3 for his first 9 for 26 yards the fans will boo every incompletion, everytime the coaching staff calls a running play, every time they jets give up more than a 3rd and 7.  It's going to be the Jets without their best 3 players against Houston and 60,000.

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by GraniteStateKid:

Scal...

Without giving me anything about home team and underdogs on monday nights and any of that angle stuff, tell me one matchup on the field where you think the Jets even come close to Texas. 

Texas top running back against leagues worst rush defense.

Texas 3rd best pass defense against 28 ranked Sanchez

Texas league best run defense against 25th ranked Jets run game.

Shaub and a healthy offense against Jets without Revis.

What on the field makes you think the Jets can hang here?  And I'm a DIE HARD JETS FAN!


I don't have an advantage. I read your post and posted in your thread. I just think the premium you are paying here is ENORMOUS. 

Again I ask, what .500 team has ever gotten +10 at home in recent memory? And this is in a league where the bookies do not like giving out these huge spreads anymore (when back in the day, the Pats would lay 24 to the dolphins during their perfect season). This spread at home qualifies as GIGANTIC.

All I am saying is you really shouldn't casually lay 10 here just because you think the Jets are shit. Remember, Houston has played mostly shit this year...
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by GraniteStateKid:

Also, about the 12th and 13th man behind them.... you don't know the Jets.  The second Sanchez is 3 for his first 9 for 26 yards the fans will boo every incompletion, everytime the coaching staff calls a running play, every time they jets give up more than a 3rd and 7.  It's going to be the Jets without their best 3 players against Houston and 60,000.


Any Jets fan that wants Tebow to start knows nothing about football or their team...
 
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Posted: #49
i honestly dont think people realize how pathetic this team is

the jets will most likely not score a TD

not because houston is that great...

the jets are just that bad


"Every year, there is an NFL offense that we refer to as "fantasy wasteland." It's often been the Browns in recent seasons. Oakland. This year's fantasy wasteland is the New York Jets. Shonn Greene is the worst running back in the league still trotted out as a starter. With Santonio Holmes done for the year, there is no longer a chronic underachiever to tease our hopes, then catch two passes for 13 yards on Sunday and single-handedly fracture his team's locker room in the process. Mark Sanchez is going to be benched for Tim Tebow before the Week 9 bye. Dustin Keller can't shake his balky hamstring. Chaz Schilens is a starter in this offense. For real. On its last 34 possessions, the Jets' "offense" has scored one touchdown."
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

i honestly dont think people realize how pathetic this team is

the jets will most likely not score a TD

not because houston is that great...

the jets are just that bad


"Every year, there is an NFL offense that we refer to as "fantasy wasteland." It's often been the Browns in recent seasons. Oakland. This year's fantasy wasteland is the New York Jets. Shonn Greene is the worst running back in the league still trotted out as a starter. With Santonio Holmes done for the year, there is no longer a chronic underachiever to tease our hopes, then catch two passes for 13 yards on Sunday and single-handedly fracture his team's locker room in the process. Mark Sanchez is going to be benched for Tim Tebow before the Week 9 bye. Dustin Keller can't shake his balky hamstring. Chaz Schilens is a starter in this offense. For real. On its last 34 possessions, the Jets' "offense" has scored one touchdown."
The Chiefs are worse than the Jets and easily covered the 6.5 yesterday against an excellent Ravens team.
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