Hey Guys,
We've all known about the disadvantages of teams traveling from the West Coast for 1pm EST games.
Teams have for years now tried to figure out the body clock issues by scheduling practices earlier if they're coming East for a game.
Probably the biggest travel factor these days is the actual matchup. Last season the Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers all won their first games traveling East rather handily. That's because the NFC West was probably the toughest division (along with the AFC North).
The Cardinals beat WFT handily also, but it was a 4pm EST game and West Coast/Mountain West teams playing a 4pm game have an advantage because the players body clocks are primed by 4pm for max energy. The Rams beat Dallas handily on Sunday night and again, they had the body clock advantage (and they beat the NYJ the following week in NJ but they have the much better squad to begin with, which is the point).
The Chargers travelled to the Midwest to sneak past the Bengals last season, but they lost in TB and NO, which was expected anyway because of the team personnel and coaching mismatches. But the Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers (pre-injury debacle) have changed the thinking of west coast to east coast travel because they have the goods these last few years. It's not a lock anymore (never was a lock).
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Here's a portion of an actionnetwork article from Jan 2020 talking about the travel angle:
A commonly held belief among NFL bettors is that West Coast teams struggle when traveling cross-country. The theory is that long flights, road games and time-zone changes, which can confuse players’ internal body clocks, impact performance on the field.
Since 2003, West Coast teams have gone 95-138 (40.8%) straight up (SU) when playing on the East Coast per BetLabs. This seems significant, but against-the-spread (ATS) performance is a better indicator of how well a team performed compared to pregame expectations.
Over the same span, West Coast teams are 115-111-7 (50.9%) ATS when playing on the road against an East Coast team.
The ATS record suggests West Coast teams have not underperformed, but there is a stark split in the data that is crucial for bettors.
From 2003 to 2012, West Coast teams were 57-71-3 (44.5%) ATS when playing in the Eastern time zone, but since 2013 West Coast teams have had a winning ATS record in this situation. These teams have gone 58-40-4 (59.2%) ATS when playing on the road against an East Coast team.
There are two reasons for the change. One, teams have become better at managing this situation by changing when they leave for an East Coast game.
Two, as this trend became popular among bettors, the oddsmakers adjusted knowing gamblers would want to fade teams traveling from West to East.
There is no longer value fading West Coast teams traveling east. While West Coast teams have been undervalued in this situation the past few seasons, it is likely that the trend will regress.
The key takeaway is that profitable betting trends lose value over time as they become popular and force bookmakers to adjust.
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9/12
Chargers @ WFT: Last season the Chargers were the runt of the West Coast travel teams, but this matchup suggests a tight game.
Cardinals @ Titans: Bookies also suggest a tight game/probably pick em on a neutral field.
Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers all traveling to the Midwest.
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