week VI tech angles

40-19 ATS season-to-date....pending the Raiders/Chiefs OVER on MNF.

A kind poster has just shown that divisional games have gone UNDER over 85% of the time this year, so will keep that in mind going forward.

1)  Since 2014 a road team off a home loss before week 11 that has a Vegas line less than the calculated  line has been 85-32-4 ATS.....Commanders

The calculated line is done as follows....the Commanders' point differential after five games played is -7.6/game (-38 divided by 5).  The Bears' is -4/game (-20/5)....the Bears have a 3.6 points/game differential advantage, and we add 2 points for home field...the calculated line then  is Chicago -5.6.  The line is approximately pik 'em.....teams in this situation have performed brilliantly, including former dregs like the New York Jets twice this season in this exact situation. 

If our away team has equal or less wins than their present opponent this moves to 72-25-3 ATS 

The query text is as follows....

p:HL and A and week<11 and season>2014 and line<oA(margin)+2-tA(margin)

2)  An away dog or pik since 2014 with less than or equal wins to their present opponent whose next week line will be stronger than their opponent's next week line....148-93-6 ATS.....Patriots, Commanders, Jaguars (possibly Cowboys).  

Example....Patriots next play the Bears at home and should be around -7....the Browns go to the Ravens and should be approximately 3 point away dogs.

Cowboys play at home after next week to the Lions...that line should be around -8, however the Eagles play host to the Steelers and that line might be similar despite masseyratings.com not downgrading the Steelers by all that much yet, so  whether the Cowboys qualify for this angle is iffy, the lookahead lines come out about Wednesday and of course they are subject to change based on the previous week's results.

t:wins <= o:wins  and n:line < on:line and A and line>=0 and season > 2014 and week<11

3)  A week 6 game number six non-divisional away team with two or three wins on the season whose present opponent has 0, 1 or two more wins than they do, as away dogs....28-11 ATS.....Patriots, Jets.....as away favorites...6-3 ATS.....Bengals, Ravens

4 > t:wins > 1 and A and not division = o:division and game number = 6 and 1 > t:wins - o:wins > -3 and week = 6 and AF, AD

Plays:

1)  Jaguars +1

2)  Patriots +3

3)  Commanders pik

4)  A week six, game number six home dog with three wins on the season playing an opponent that has four or five wins on the season.....11-2 ATS, 9-4 straight up....Dolphins, Chiefs (if they lose on MNF).

Will wait to see who is quarterbacking the Dolphins before we make a play.

5)  A week six, game number 6 home favorite that averages at least 30 yards more per game on offense than they allow on defense......27-43-3 ATS.....AGAINST Browns, Packers, Eagles, Colts......

if this home favorite has less than 4 wins on the season this moves to 12-25-1 ATS...AGAINST Browns, Packers, Colts

if their opponent has greater than zero wins this moves to 8-23 ATS.....VERSUS Browns, Packers, Colts

6)  An week six, game 6 away favorite that won exactly one playoff game  last season.....5-15 ATS.....VERSUS Cardinals

AF and game number = 6 and o:game number = 6 and tpS(playoffs) = 1

Who you leaning tomorrow night

7)  A week six, game 6 home non-divisional favorite of more than six points off a loss that played one or two games  in the playoffs last season......8-21 ATS, 21-7-1 o/u.....VERSUS  Packers

HF and month = 10 and line<-6 and p:L and game number=6 and week=6 and 3>tpS(playoffs)>0 and not DIV

@Indigo999

 How certain are you 1/10

like Jags to bounceback next week....

th 999

If I query :                  3DP>=40 and A and season>=2012

What does the result mean? How do I interpret it?  Thanks in advance

The result is ATS: 784-452-32 (3.61,63.4)

3DP = third down conversion rate

However, this query text is saying "when an away team converts 40% or more of their third downs they cover the spread 63% of the time".  

Which means if you can predict which road  team will have a good day converting their third downs they'll likely cover.

Away teams coming off a good day coverting their third downs THE GAME PREVIOUS have covered 51% of the time.

p:3DP>=40 and A and season>2012 

@Indigo999

 Appreciate the clarification..these non specific game queries still have value in determining potential ats success.

8)  A game six home dog  with a won/loss record of  4-1 or 5-0 on the season......2-7 ATS (-9.28), 1-8 straight up (-12.33)....VERSUS Giants

Plays:

Adding.....

4)  Jets +7'

________________

3)  Jaguars +1

2)  Patriots +3

1)  Commanders pik

9)  I have detailed this before, it is 3-1 ats so far this season with the Cardinals getting the cover versus the Eagles.....a home dog off an away dog win versus a team off a home favorite win.....96-57 ATS (+3.18) 62.7%, 75-81 straight up (-1.20)......Giants.....this moves to 42-14 ATS if our play ON team has a winning percentage of greater than 500.

p:ADW and HD and op:HFW and playoffs=0 and tA(W)>.5

However, Lamar Jackson is awesome on the road (and not so great at home)...I don't have his game to game stats and I am too lazy to look them up, but the Ravens are 22-11 ATS since 2018 when he became the starter and if we eliminate last season's stats when he was hurt this moves to 19-6-1 ATS, covering by an average of almost 8 points per game (+7.88).

team=Ravens and season>2017 and playoffs=0 and A and season

I will NOT be playing the Giants/Ravens game.

Indigo check this one again I come up different buddy.

Ok, yes, we omit the week and game number to get the result specified.....this is good throughout October and actually the OVER is stronger than the side in this case.

HF and month = 10 and line<-6 and p:L and tpS(playoffs) and not DIV

and 

HF and month = 10 and line<-6 and p:L and 0<tpS(playoffs)<3 and not DIV and game number

Keeping me honest are you?.......

Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson are twin sons of different mothers on the football field.....here are their teams' results the last three seasons.

As home favorites

a)  Ravens 10-13 ATS

b)  Cardinals 4-11 ATS

As home dogs

c)  Ravens 4-0-1 ATS

d)  Cardinals 6-6 ATS

As away dogs

e)  Ravens 5-1 ATS

f)  Cardinals 15-4 ATS

As away favorites

g)  Ravens 12-7-1 ATS

h)  Cardinals 5-3 ATS

Ravens 17-8-1 ATS on the road and Cardinals have been 20-8 ATS.....both of them are on the road this week....am I backing them?....NOPE, there are some counter angles favoring their opponents,....probably(?) not playing either game. 

Wonders never cease, a prime time OVER hits, and it's a divisional game no less.....brings me to 41-19 ATS for the season.

Plays:

Adding......

5)  Chargers/Broncos UNDER 45'

6)  Colts/Jaguars UNDER 42'

7)  Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 42

___________________________________

4)  Jets +7'

3)  Jaguars +1

2)  Patriots +3

1)  Commanders pik

Appreciate your time and energy and sharing.   

Thanks, Indigo. Great work!

Fantastic work 

Sweep your slate Brother 

Thanks,....it's a labor of love....