season 9-2-1 ATS, won 7.6 units
leans 0-6
We have 2 regression plays this week, actually we had 3 but with the huge line movement on the Bucs I passed on that game. I've learned over the years these big line movements lose more then not regardless whether sharps caused them or not. If it happens because of injury or some good, solid reasoning that is different but when it is just because the money flows in moving the line it is not good to back these teams.
Pats -2.5 over Jets --- 1.1 units
Packers +11 (-120) over Bills --- 1.2 units
We lost fading the Jets last week, we'll fade them again and up our play next week fading them if we lose here. Jets on an unsustainable level and they should be going down soon.
Lost out on getting +11.5 with the Pack, line is dropping at this point, was hoping it'd go to +12 with going for 2 so often and passing up FG's I'd get every point possible. We need to be aware of a huge line movement on the Packers but they don 't happen ALL that often, but will buy back if we get one.
Packers playing on an unsustainable low level of play and should be ready to rebound back. If you heard Rodgers saying maybe we need to go into a big game VS a team like the Bills as a team nobody thinks we can win. Listen to the players when they speak, these are situations that can often motivate players to come with a SB type mentality, and alot of this is because they are playing pathetic ball right now. As these players are very egotistical and get very motivated by these situations when nobody believes in them. This is partly why regression works.
.....Pats
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