Posted:
#1
Hey everyone,
Getting a jump this week on these lines ...
I feel very confident about my chances to hit at least 3 of the following 5 sides...
If there ever was a week set up for the dogs and the unders , this one is it ... but what do I know ...The opposite of square is another square ...
Detroit + 3.5 ( 3 units )
San Francisco + 3.5 ( 2 units )
Houston + 3.5 ( 2 units )
Miami + 7 ( 2 units )
Minnesota + 3.5 (2 units )
Featured game of the week :
Chicago @ Detroit
Detroit is 1-10 ATS last 11 games overall .
As alarming as that stat is , the Lions are home this week and rested coming off a bye , after playing 2 out of the first 3 games on the road , where Detroit is , well not very good ...
Green Bay beat them in their only home game 45-28 after Detroit fell behind 21-0 and became even more one-dimensional than they already are ...( Detroit has averaged 75.7 rushing yds per game TY...can't blame that on Mike Martz !)
That being said , Green Bay owns Detroit no matter who is the coach , quarterback, or CEO in charge ...
Detroit , a team that always plays better at home than on the road played KC, Dallas ,Green Bay, NY Giants , Denver , Tampa Bay , Chicago , and Minnesota in their confines of Ford Field.
There are some tough opponents on that list , and Detroit did beat Denver , Tampa Bay , Chicago , Minnesota, and Kansas City averaging about 30 points per game and giving up only 17 in those 5 wins , while losing to the SB champs by only 6 , to the 13-3 Cowboys by 1 point , and then of course to their nemesis by the largest margin of 11 points .
We can safely say that Detroit Lions are a different and better team playing at home than on the road ...just don't look to the 2006-2007 season where they only won 2 games SU @ home ( 4-4 ATS and 3 games overall .
But , I think we have seen the worst of Detroit , and a healthier
squad , rested physically and mentally will emerge from this bye week .
Divisional home dogs coming off a bye are 40-26 ATS and 24-9 ATS when the Underdog is coming off a SU and ATS loss . ( per Marc Lawrence )
Chicago who lost BOTH games to Detroit last year is coming off a
Sunday night physical battle against Philadelphia , a nationally televised game @ Soldier field that could have easily gone the Eagles way .
Not impressed with Chicago's offense at all , and I don't expect them to keep up with Detroit's rested offense this week .
Detroit has gotten behing early in all three games they played thus far , and at the very least playing at home against an average offensive unit off a bye-week , I expect great intensity and focus from this 32nd ranked defense.
They must stop the ground attack of Chicago , because Matt Forte 6'1" & 215 lbs will be driving hard into that 32nd ranked rush defense all day , after only rushing for 43 yards ( 78 as a team ) against the Eagles.
The Bears rushed for 183 yards against the Colts. Kyle Orton ( QB rating = 78 ) is not the quarterback that will win the game for you if the Bears fall behind and must abandon the running game .
He is a game manager , and won his position because he is supposed to make less mistakes than his predecessor .
He threw for 0 Td's against Indianapolis in their 29-13 win and 0 against Carolina .
And when he is throwing TD's , he is also throwing Interceptions 2/2 vs TB . and 3/2 vs Philadelphia.
Detroit can use all the help on defense they can get .
Chicago caught Indianapolis still hybernating in game one, and had a solid win vs Philadelphia, though the Eagles had 18 first downs to the Bears 13 . ( and 17 vs Indi's 23 first downs in game 1 )
The Eagles held the ball longer , but were hampered by the red-zone failures going only 1-4 and missing also two field goals .
Chicago's defense stiffens up inside the 20 , this is why John Kitna must strike downfield and find his dangerous receivers Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson whom I think will have a good day ...
The Bears' defensive unit is disciplined and sure tackling , and the YAC is tougher on them.
Open up the field , and get in the end zone Detroit .
Put up some 7's .
Don't play catchup .
Put the pressure on Kyle Orton to force mistakes , take him out of his comfort zone .
Fans , be loud and celebrate in earnest Matt Millen's departure.
Just win , baby
Is it too much too ask ?
Final score : Detroit 23-17
********************************
0
Hot Forum Topics
