20-15 +4.05u
Went 5-2 last week, posting only on Twitter as I was on a trip to London and didn't have the time. Solid start into Football season, started 9-3 +4.88u in CFB, so 29-18 overall.
On to week five..
PHI -3 -105
Some will say this line is too high considering it would be more than a TD for PHI at home. But this team is the real deal and I see them winning this game by more than a FG at Detroit. Philly is on two weeks rest and Schwartz had these two weeks to prepare for his old QB. Phillys’ wide-9 causes havoc for most OLs this year and Schwartz can let 7 players drop into coverage. DET’s OL will be overmatched by PHI’s front four. Against GB, Stafford was able to exploit a soft secondary in the "all in mode" because GB was blitzing a lot, but not this time. DET’s defense has been a bottom-5 one so far, and Wentz & company should be able to put points on the board. Won’t be another blowout, but I see an easy Eagles win.
DEN U48 -115
I think this total is too high.
Denver is the first real passing defense the Falcons are facing. Unlike the
Panthers, the Broncos have a good secondary that can play man and will
successfully double-team Julio Jones. Successfully
means that he won’t have another crazy fantasy-esque week. Against the
Broncos, the Falcons will rely heavily on their OL with short passes and
the running game as the Broncos haven't been good at defending the run. Kyle Shanahan won’t give them many opportunities to
create turnovers. Short passes & runs = tick
tack. On the other side the Broncos will probably run a lot against a
soft front seven. If you discount the 14 defensive points vs. the Colts,
no game has gone over 46 total. You can't expect the Broncos to put up 30 points without defensive help. Seeing this as a 21-17/23-20 type of game.
SD +4 -110
One team is 1-3, the other one is 3-1. The 1-3 team blew 3 huge 4Q-leads, the 3-1 team needed 2 4Q-comebacks. SD could be 4-0, OAK could be 1-3. That’s Football, where nuances can decide games. I still have SD as the better team and gladly grab 4 points with them in a game they absolutely have to win. They will go all in, because their season will be literally over after a loss. OAK might be a little bit sloppy after B2B east games and of that 4Q-stunner (they were after that week one miracle). Raiders needed starts deep in Ravens territory to score their points, it was more of a Ravens fail than an actual good performance by Oakland. SD defense is underrated whereas Rivers shouldn’t struggle moving the ball on Oakland. Think about that: SD would have covered or pushed a +4 spread after 60 minutes in all four games.More throughout the week. BOL to all!
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