Week 1 Underdogs and underdog moneylines

Your guess is as good as mine as to what is going to happen this season, but there were a few dogs and UD moneylines that have stood out to me from the moment of the release.

Carolina +126- Going contrarian here. New coach, new QB and a defense that is a shell of what it once was. Raiders are know to lay eggs on these 10am Pacific time starts. Possibly looking ahead to that big Monday nighter against the Bucs in that sweet new palace of theirs. 

Bucs +3.5 and +158 - There are three teams that will be hurt the most with no crowd, or very limited crowds, and two of them have home games in week 1. The Saints are my number one team that will be affected. Add in the fact they are horrid ATS in week 1, and maybe a bit of a divided locker room still with the the Drew Brees comments, and a loss is possible. Playoff hangover from another punch in the gut, and I like the Bucs to get it done in this one. Bucs D can actually play the way they want, as their QB isn’t going to spot the opponent 7 points out of the gate, and turn it over 5 more times.

Washington 1st half moneyline and full game +6.5. Eagles last two season openers have seen them fall behind in the first half, and have to claw their way back. Can’t see a team that has had plenty of slow starts fix this issue with no preseason to work with.

Bears +130 - Assuming Foles will start. His presence alone will cut the 3 and outs by 75 percent. Defense will get to rest, and David Montgomery and Cole Kmet will keep the chains moving.

Bengals +3.5 - Tyron Taylor and Anthony Lynn aren’t agresive enough to run the Bungles out of the stadium. This thing stays close and I think the Bolts win with a last second field goal.

Tennessee +106 - Betting the Broncos in week 1 or 2 at home used to be money. Visiting teams would just wear out in the heat and altitude. Now, the team who loves to control the clock comes to town. We get a night game where heat won’t be a factor, and a team that can eat up 9-10 minutes at a time getting points. Denver’s interior D line is still a weakness, and Von Miller won’t be feeding off the crowd. Downgraded secondary could be a problem for the Broncos as well. Give me the revenge factor and the points. Denver, like New Orleans and Seattle will miss their home crowds immensely.

Good luck this season fellas, we will all need it.

Montgomery might not even play week 1 with that soft tissue injury.  Agree that the Saints are one of the most affected teams without their crowd noise / atmosphere.  Panthers bet is interesting, hadn’t thought of the opening of their Death Star the following week.  Bengals probably my favorite dog for the week.  GL 

GB, you make some good points. Tenn, Cincy are worth looking at. GL this season!

 G-Men look real tasty to me. You have high fan base in Pitt playing a prime time game against a new coach no one knows about. Love this new coach. Think team can be 8-8 for the year. 

Trabisky to start for Bears and Montgomery will be out, or incredibly limited. Bears ML

Broncos weak interior D line? With Casey, Harris and Purcell? Broncos weak secondary? Two elite safeties and the addition of Bouye and Callahan? What you been smoking fam? 

Denver held Henry to 28yds on 15 carries last year, and they only improved up front this offseason

Yea man, looks like your bet is all ready in, sucks.

The Bears are going to blow. Even if Foles started he is also awful. Both qb's have been horrid in practice. From 2018 to 2019, no 2 qbs had a greater drop in qbr than Trubisky and Foles.

So they pay Foles 21 million guaranteed to sit on the bench, while passing on Cam Newton for peanuts. He's now starting for the Pats.

The Bears GM blows. He did nothing to sure up the oline.  Absolutely nothing. One of the worst groups in the nfl last year.

Khalil Mack fell into his lap cause the Raiders shopped him, and the Bears handed over a ton of draft picks for him.

This year he signed a washed up Jimmy Graham at TE cause he had ties to New Orleans, then drafts a TE from ND who didn't even play a full college season, with their first pick.

Let safety Adrian Amos go last year and go to the Packers. Replaced him with the Packers safety that they dropped. He was cut by the Bears in the off-season he sucked so bad.

Let Prince Amukamura go. This year they'll be starting a rookie CB and a rookie safety.

Eddie Goldman is opting out, one of the best nose tackles in the nfl. Aikem Hicks is dealing with a sore quad.

They let 2 great linebackers go in Nick Kwiatkowsi and Kevin Pierre-Lewis. The dudes were fire whenever on the field. Tackled everything and didn't miss assignments.

Just my 2 cents.

I like your other plays though

Perhaps we are smoking the same strain, brosef. Mariota has quite a bit to do with Henry’s horrible numbers last season when these two met.

You and I will have to agree to disagree on what happens to an already average at best secondary when you let a Chris Harris walk away. Anyone and everyone related to Jacksonville stated that he can’t handle being a number 1 corner.

Weak was a bit harsh for the Broncos d-line, but I doubt they are much better than last season. 

Good luck on your season. 

Tenn@Denver -  Since 2004 11 teams have been shut out by non-div opp and then faced them the the next year. In the following years re-match the team that was shut out went 7-4 ats and scored 27,22,13,27,48,17, 30,24,20,34 & 28 pts. Of the 11 teams seeking revenge from a shut out loss averaged  158 rushing yrds  in the re-match. Run heavy attack to limit mistakes. Ryan Tannehill 4-2 su & 5-1 ats in week one Vrabel 7-2 ats as road dog. Tenn has a huge psychological  advantage in this game . Denver counters with 18-2 su & 16-3-1 ats in their last 20 home openers vs non-div opp's. Lock imo is still a rookie with no chemistry with offense because of no preseason as do Tenn, but the exp edge goes to Tannehill and Tenn. Dont forget when Tannehill was with Miami, he had some good games with some great ats #'s vs them (when Den was actually a good team) 2014 Miami / Tannehill @ Den ..Tannehill scored 36 pts on that Denver defense..it will be a tough game indeed, I think tenn pulls it out

With no crowd noise im guessing we will have way more home dogs this season then usual.

and a very valuable 2 cents indeed..

Titans is undervalued imo, I’ll take them as dog every time