Week 1: 4 team 13 point teaser (0-0 on season)

Here is my best:

Buffalo +15.5

Tennessee +17.5

Houston -1

San Fran +18.5

Gotta start with Houston this week.  Basically a ML play at this point.  For the remaining three spots I like:

Bears +3.5

Eagles +3.5

Saints +5.5

Lions +4.5

Packers +8

Panthers +10.5

Broncos +11

What dog QBs can hurt me most?  Luck against Chicago…Weeden against Philly…RGIII against New Orleans…Bradford against Detroit…Alex Smith against Green Bay…Josh Freeman against Carolina…Roethlisberger against Denver. 

Of that group, I think Weeden and the Browns offense poses the weakest threat to their opponent.  I’ll take Philly +3.5 and eliminate Chicago, New Orleans, and Denver.  I feel pretty strong about New Orleans winning and will probably play Denver in some way eventually, but for this teaser, I can make better choices than going against Luck, RGIII, and Roethlisberger. 

The Bucs seem to be a trendy upset this week, but as a fan, it’s going to be a long year.  They’re going to focus on the run, and Freeman’s having a slow preseason.  If Carolina loses, I have a hard time seeing this Buccaneer team beating them by more than 10 given Tampa’s predictably conservative approach as well as the combination of Carolina’s offensive capabilities and Tampa’s defensive incapabilities.  The Panthers scored 25 or more in half of their games last year and dropped a combined 76 on Tampa in the two meetings.  I’ll take Carolina +10.5.

For the last spot I’m taking either the Lions or Packers.  I see both teams winning straight up, so I did some comparisons to help make my choice.  Both home offenses are clearly superior to their opponents’.  Detroit (+4.5) went 5-3 at home last year, losing to San Fran by 6, Atlanta by 7, and Green Bay by 12.  Green Bay (+8) went 8-0 at home last year, winning by an average of 18.75 points.  St. Louis’ only road win last year was a 1 point victory at Cleveland.  They lost the rest by an average of 18.57 points.  Two of San Francisco’s three losses last year were on the road – by 10 at Baltimore, and by 2 at Arizona.  Their road wins – Cincinnati by 5, Philly by 1, Washington by 8, Seattle by 2, and St. Louis by 7.   I’ll take Green Bay and the chance that even if they get upset it will be by no more than a TD.

Final play –

Houston +1/2

Philadelphia +3.5

Carolina +10.5

Green Bay +8