Week 1: 4 team 13 point teaser (0-0 on season)

Well it is that time of year again...  and I hope to see some of the regulars back on this thread this year...

So every week I look at a 4 team 13 point teaser and capping +13 points ATS...  

10 units is the bankroll...  min bet = .5 units  maxbet = 2 units

This thread is not just about making picks, but creating discussion about capping teaser lines...

Good luck this season...

Guidelines

1. Never play a 4 team 13 point teaser at any odds other then -120

I hear people talking about -140 or -160 type of odds and I can tell you it is not worth it...

I use a mixture of 5 dimes (best place for teasers) and bovada (because the lines lean against square like a parlay card)

2.  Play only 1 teaser a week (4 games).

if you were to randomly pick games +13 points ATS (against the spread), history has shown that you will hit about 84%...

so knowing that more games will hit then not (some games even both sides will win), so what you are trying to do is avoid losers...  not just focusing on trying to pick winners...

Theories

1.  Lowering scoring games

I always start by looking at playing on games with the lowest totals because they give the most value to the +13 points ATS...

In a game that has a o/u of 39 points, +13 points ATS is a 3rd of the total...

But in a game that has an o/u of 52 points, + 13 points ATS is a 4th of the total...

So by proportion, the +13 points ATS has more value and more of an effect on the lower scoring game...  

2. Covering the numbers

I look foward to this thread as I think teasers are fun. I like Chi +3.5, NO +5.5, Mia +25, & NE +7.

How about teasing the Saints or the Lions? Obv good teams to tease.

I see you covered the Saints. Lions then lol.

dl36, I'll be participating in your thread all season as I've experienced great success betting these in the past. 

Like'em all except the browns one. The potential for a huge blowout is way too high IMO. I like this thread idea, DL.

 gl This season

Love the Packers +8.5, and Arizona +16. Those would be my 2 standard plays in any teaser combo for this week.

My favorite teams for a 13 point teaser this week:

Dallas +16.5
Cleveland +21.5
Buffalo +15.5
San Francisco +18
Tampa Bay +15.5
Cincinnati +19.5

Gun to my head on a 4 team, 13 point teaser, I'd take: BUF +15.5, SF +18,  TB +15.5, and CIN +19.5

I just don't see any of those teams getting the doors blown off of them in the first game -- Buffalo great D and NYJ terrible offensively, San Francisco has a very attractive defense, Tampa Bay gets a crappy Carolina defense on the road, and Cincinnati has a solid enough defense and good enough offense to keep it within 17 points with Baltimore.

loving this thread!!

Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Eagles average 25 points a game, they have a super bowl caliber offense and defense this year, and the Browns have a rookie QB leading an offense that averages 14 points a game.

Detroit Lions +3.5

The book is giving me +3.5 on a Lions team that averages 30 points a game at home against a team that averages 12 points a game.

Atlanta Falcons +10

Falcons win by an average of 12 point’s game and the Chiefs average 12 points a game on offense.

Houston Texans -1

The Texans have a defense that gave up 14 points a game last season and have a monster offense against a Dolphin’s team that ranked 25 against the pass with a rookie QB on the road.

I just can’t see the Browns, Rams, Chiefs, or Dolphins winning any of these games. People are saying to watch out for the Chiefs, but I believe the Falcons are an all round elite team that knows they have to start winning on the road. I gotta feeling that the Falcons are looking to make a statement in this one.

The Falcons had better show the hell up because I have Dallas -6 on a two GM pleaser and I have the Falcons -11 with 1200 on the line.

That’s my 4-teamer for -130

dallas +17

49ers +18

saints +5.5

houston +2

BEST 13PT TEASE

Arizona, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Houston.

Not only do these dogs have an amazing shot at winning their respective games, they are either playing against a sub-par offense and/or have a good defense themselves. Each of these games have a total of less then 42 which should mean a fairly low scoring game. The Houston bet is simply for a moneyline as it would be very very difficult for the Fins to beat the Texans at home.