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Week 1: 4 team 13 point teaser (0-0 on season)

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Posts: 90

MoneySRH

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 8480

Posted: Sep. 6, 2012 - 8:45 PM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

PIT does have issues, but lets remember that the they had the superbowl loser curse on them last year...

speaking of which...

shouldnt we all be considering TEN +19?

I never bet on teams that play on “hope,” but the Titans might be a risk worth taking at +19. Right now, I believe the Patriots are as vulnerable as ever on the o-line, but the problem is Tennessee was 31st in the NFL with 28 sacks last season.

The Patriots could come out firing like the Oregon Ducks or the Titans could play solid D and control time of possession with dink and dunk passes. I could see Chris Johnson catching short passes and running up and down the field keeping Brady on the sideline.

It a tough one to pull the trigger on for me, I see 31st in sacks, second youngest defense, ranking almost last on D in every run up the middle category, Jake Lockers first start, good passing weather forecast, NO Kenny Britt and I still have that 59-0 blowout burned into my brain.

TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 55581

Posted: Sep. 6, 2012 - 9:58 PM ET #27

Detroit line down to -7, so you can get them at home +6.5......

I dont know who wouldnt lay the wood if that was the real line.....

bol

doliver517

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2009

Posts: 3083

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 1:47 AM ET #28

Interesting thread. Waiting for the guy to come in and tell us how stupid teasers are....he's out there

My teaser:

Buffalo+16, Cincy +20, Houston pk, Arizona +16 195/150

I actually believe they all have a good chance of winning outright, regardless of extra pts. I made a $25 ML parlay with Cincy/Buf/Ari that pays $392

Hockeyjock

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 868

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 1:57 AM ET #29

First of all, I also love teasers, especially early in the year. I would lay off the Tennessee +19 if I were you. I know that the Patriots will not slow down on offense as Belichick loves to roll teams. The only hope Ten. has is if they somehow slow down Brady early and frustrate him. I look forward to this thread for the rest of the season....lets cash in!

dl36

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Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 2:36 AM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:

gl This season

you too LV... Our betting styles are different, but I think our money management styles seem similar

dl36

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Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 2:37 AM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

My favorite teams for a 13 point teaser this week:

Dallas +16.5
Cleveland +21.5
Buffalo +15.5
San Francisco +18
Tampa Bay +15.5
Cincinnati +19.5

These all look good... dogs getting decent numbers... It shows that you are no spring chicken when it comes to the art of capping +13 points ATS

dl36

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Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 2:54 AM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by MoneySRH:

Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Eagles average 25 points a game, they have a super bowl caliber offense and defense this year, and the Browns have a rookie QB leading an offense that averages 14 points a game.

Detroit Lions +3.5

The book is giving me +3.5 on a Lions team that averages 30 points a game at home against a team that averages 12 points a game.

Atlanta Falcons +10

Falcons win by an average of 12 point’s game and the Chiefs average 12 points a game on offense.

Houston Texans -1

The Texans have a defense that gave up 14 points a game last season and have a monster offense against a Dolphin’s team that ranked 25 against the pass with a rookie QB on the road.

I just can’t see the Browns, Rams, Chiefs, or Dolphins winning any of these games. People are saying to watch out for the Chiefs, but I believe the Falcons are an all round elite team that knows they have to start winning on the road. I gotta feeling that the Falcons are looking to make a statement in this one.

The Falcons had better show the hell up because I have Dallas -6 on a two GM pleaser and I have the Falcons -11 with 1200 on the line.

That’s my 4-teamer for -130

I think PHI is a good deal at that number... hard to argue with it... I actually think that NFL lines are built on perception and that this spread should really be closer to 7... but because of the "dream team" playing the "worst team in the league" the line feels inflated... I do see this as a solid pick tho...

I like your logic on the DET game.. capping +13 points ATS is not about picking winners but actually about not picking losers since randomly +13 points ATS hits about 83-85%...

So the stat about DET scoring is not necessarily as important as the crucial part of their opponent not scoring... you could imagine the value if you faded STL as a fav and get 14 or more points against a team that averages 12...

I do feel however that your 3.5 might be the right pick and is a nice number, but I am getting it better value at +5.5 which covers both the 4 and 5 number....

With you on HOU as a SU winner... good pick...

I like your idea of fading KC because of their lack of offense... I am not thrilled about the number 10, -3 is a touch number to tease at 6,10 or 13... but getting +10 is probably the best outcome of teasing -3... but crossing the zero on a road fav seems scary although it is probably the a good pick...

finally the -130 odds hurt... I get -120 from 5 dimes and bovada... doesnt seem like much but over a 17 week season it can add up...

Thanks for your effort... keep posting on this thread and the weekly thread this season

I like your logic on the DET game.. capping +13 points ATS is not about picking winners but actually about not picking losers since randomly +13 points ATS hits about 83-85%...

I do feel however that your 3.5 might be the right pick and is a nice number, but I am getting it better value at +5.5 which covers both the 4 and 5 number....

With you on HOU as a SU winner... good pick...

finally the -130 odds hurt... I get -120 from 5 dimes and bovada... doesnt seem like much but over a 17 week season it can add up...

Thanks for your effort... keep posting on this thread and the weekly thread this season

dl36

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Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 2:56 AM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by POLISH:

dallas +17

49ers +18

saints +5.5

houston +2

BEST 13PT TEASE

Nice job on PHI... Tell me why you like NO considering all of their losses on the field in coaching... shouldnt we be treading lightly in week 1?

dl36

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Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 2:56 AM ET #34

sorry I meant nice job on DAL...

MoneySRH

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Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 4:23 AM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

I like your logic on the DET game.. capping +13 points ATS is not about picking winners but actually about not picking losers since randomly +13 points ATS hits about 83-85%...

I do feel however that your 3.5 might be the right pick and is a nice number, but I am getting it better value at +5.5 which covers both the 4 and 5 number....

With you on HOU as a SU winner... good pick...

finally the -130 odds hurt... I get -120 from 5 dimes and bovada... doesnt seem like much but over a 17 week season it can add up...

Thanks for your effort... keep posting on this thread and the weekly thread this season

dl36

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Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 6:00 AM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by Toocrafty:

Arizona, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Houston.

Not only do these dogs have an amazing shot at winning their respective games, they are either playing against a sub-par offense and/or have a good defense themselves. Each of these games have a total of less then 42 which should mean a fairly low scoring game. The Houston bet is simply for a moneyline as it would be very very difficult for the Fins to beat the Texans at home.

CIN scares me... I think BAL will flex its muscles with this new offense...

interesting fact...

CIN is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games against BAL... so history is on your side

dl36

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Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 7:11 PM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Detroit line down to -7, so you can get them at home +6.5......

I dont know who wouldnt lay the wood if that was the real line.....

bol

perhaps a good bet but the 6.5 number lacks value... I think DET on a 6 point tease for -1 makes more sense in this position

dimsumboi

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 1

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 7:17 PM ET #38

im doing a 6pt teaser on the saints/lions.

TreyInventor

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2012

Posts: 13775

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 7:42 PM ET #39

Saints got the suspensions overturned. Will Smith will be playing. Vilma may or may not play. No need to tread lightly with Saints +5.5 now even tho that line lacks value, they steamroll the Skins

cdubz34

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Posts: 828

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 8:01 PM ET #40

Where do you guys get 13pt teasers? What books offer that?

dl36

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Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 11:27 PM ET #41

Quote Originally Posted by cdubz34:

Where do you guys get 13pt teasers? What books offer that?

they are offer at most sites, but the fair price is -120... dont get caught into site that have the 13 points at -140 or -160

I used bovada /fomerly bodog and 5dimes

I do this because they both offer -120 odds on 4 team 13 point teasers... but they also lean opposite directions in that bovada lean towards squares and 5 dimes leans towards sharps... So it give me a wider range of numbers to work with...

gigantes

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 56

Posted: Sep. 8, 2012 - 12:39 AM ET #42

2 UNITS

N.I +8.5

S.L +22.5

CAROLINA +12

DENVER +12

Mulahone

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 18

Posted: Sep. 8, 2012 - 1:30 AM ET #43

I love teasers as well and having said that GL..

Wanted to ask what you thought of my week 1 pick and if I could or should have been more strategic? Bet as follows:

7pt teaser Bears-3 to Eagles -1.5

6000 to win 4400 roughly.

Thoughts? Thanks in advance.

CMJohnson1

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 36739

Posted: Sep. 8, 2012 - 1:36 AM ET #44

Do the books allow you to tease the same game? If so, I would be very interested in a Jets/Bills combo platter.

Don't see any way this is a 17 points win for the Jets, or a 12 point win for the Bills

dl36

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Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 8, 2012 - 5:06 AM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Do the books allow you to tease the same game? If so, I would be very interested in a Jets/Bills combo platter.

Don't see any way this is a 17 points win for the Jets, or a 12 point win for the Bills

books do allow it... I stay away from that generally... what you say tho makes me think the BUF +16 is a good pick...

dl36

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Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 8, 2012 - 5:13 AM ET #46

Quote Originally Posted by Mulahone:

I love teasers as well and having said that GL..

Wanted to ask what you thought of my week 1 pick and if I could or should have been more strategic? Bet as follows:

7pt teaser Bears-3 to Eagles -1.5

6000 to win 4400 roughly.

Thoughts? Thanks in advance.

CHI -3 is a poor number to give up that much vig/juice for... 10 is a crappy number for teasers no matter how you cut it... if you cant stick it into a 3 team 10 point teaseryou might be able to get some value for the money line... I would only play that teaser for -110

dl36

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Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 8, 2012 - 5:24 AM ET #47

Quote Originally Posted by MoneySRH:

I never bet on teams that play on “hope,” but the Titans might be a risk worth taking at +19. Right now, I believe the Patriots are as vulnerable as ever on the o-line, but the problem is Tennessee was 31st in the NFL with 28 sacks last season.

The Patriots could come out firing like the Oregon Ducks or the Titans could play solid D and control time of possession with dink and dunk passes. I could see Chris Johnson catching short passes and running up and down the field keeping Brady on the sideline.

It a tough one to pull the trigger on for me, I see 31st in sacks, second youngest defense, ranking almost last on D in every run up the middle category, Jake Lockers first start, good passing weather forecast, NO Kenny Britt and I still have that 59-0 blowout burned into my brain.

The angle tho is on the fade the superbowl loser angle... dont remember the record on that but in the last 10-15 seasons it is ridiculous...It is a situational play not based on match ups...

MoneySRH

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 8480

Posted: Sep. 8, 2012 - 7:20 AM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

The angle tho is on the fade the superbowl loser angle... dont remember the record on that but in the last 10-15 seasons it is ridiculous...It is a situational play not based on match ups...

I don’t really care about ATS trends, OU trends, head 2 head trends or any kind of trends really. The Utah State Aggies upset Utah for first time in 15 Years last night. Everyone who blindly bet Utah because of that trend lost.

It was a hell of a game. If I would have listened to Giants backers saying Superbowl champs are 11-0 str8 up the last 11 years, I would have lost both of my Cowboys bets.

Brady is going to go out and play like it’s practice with the amount of time he will have back there. It takes defense and a pass rush to beat Brady or an offense to out score him. The Titans don’t have either of the tools to get the job done.

It’s going to take the Patriots being sick, the refs, injuries, weather or a sequence of unbelievable bullshit for the Titans to even keep it close. The only thing I can think of is that the books were impressed with the Titans playing the Texans and Saints close last season and that’s why the line is where it is.

I’m laying off this game, so I’m not stressin over it.

Gogic

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2012

Posts: 125

Posted: Sep. 8, 2012 - 10:29 AM ET #49

Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

they are offer at most sites, but the fair price is -120... dont get caught into site that have the 13 points at -140 or -160

I used bovada /fomerly bodog and 5dimes

I was just checking out 5dimes and can't find a 13 point teaser in their offer??? Pinnacle has them -140 if I'm not mistaken. Can someone confirm this??

ShadowWarrior

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2002

Posts: 7112

Posted: Sep. 8, 2012 - 11:58 AM ET #50

My three team ten point teaser is Chi., Phil. And Det. Pretty squarish I know but I can't see any of them losing but of course it is the NFL, not for losers, lol! Rookie qbs going against pretty decent defenses and Rams have been woeful. There are always upsets and that is why people tend to stay away but if you took Dallas/NYG on a 13 pointer, you would have covered either way. What I like is when you can hedge the last game if the first three are done giving you another weapon in your arsenal. Especially in parlays where you mix money line and spread games.

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Week 1: 4 team 13 point teaser (0-0 on season)

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