Saints have firepower to keep it close...Even if down by 24 late, we can always trust Brees with a backdoor touchdown cover.
Dallas...Don't think Jets can blow them out, especially in the 1st week of season...
Indi getting over 3 touchdowns is ridiculous..Even without Manning, They should have professionnal pride to keep this within 3 TD.
Pitts..Hard fought games between the 2 teams...
Good call on NO... NO as a dog has good value because they are really never out of game with their ability to move the ball in a spread, fast paced 2min/4min offense...
DAL +18 is a great number and perhaps your idea that NYJ no able to blow teams out by more then this number might have some merit...
last year the only team that they beat by more then 17 points was BUF and they did that twice... the year before they blew out OAK and CIN by shutting them out.. So I think as long as DAL is able to put up 2 TDs in the game they should be fine... I will consider adding this...
IND is a team I would like to stay away from because we have no idea what they are going to look like... I also think that Collins will not be able to handle the physical grind of being a new starting QB on a new team and the hits he may have to take, meaning we may be seeing painter and more uncertainty...
I have talked about the BAL PIT game being one that I think it does not matter which side you pick... perhaps you are smarter taking the side getting more points...
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Quote Originally Posted by Baldies:
Saints +17.5 Dallas +17.5 Indi + 22 Pitts +14.5
Saints have firepower to keep it close...Even if down by 24 late, we can always trust Brees with a backdoor touchdown cover.
Dallas...Don't think Jets can blow them out, especially in the 1st week of season...
Indi getting over 3 touchdowns is ridiculous..Even without Manning, They should have professionnal pride to keep this within 3 TD.
Pitts..Hard fought games between the 2 teams...
Good call on NO... NO as a dog has good value because they are really never out of game with their ability to move the ball in a spread, fast paced 2min/4min offense...
DAL +18 is a great number and perhaps your idea that NYJ no able to blow teams out by more then this number might have some merit...
last year the only team that they beat by more then 17 points was BUF and they did that twice... the year before they blew out OAK and CIN by shutting them out.. So I think as long as DAL is able to put up 2 TDs in the game they should be fine... I will consider adding this...
IND is a team I would like to stay away from because we have no idea what they are going to look like... I also think that Collins will not be able to handle the physical grind of being a new starting QB on a new team and the hits he may have to take, meaning we may be seeing painter and more uncertainty...
I have talked about the BAL PIT game being one that I think it does not matter which side you pick... perhaps you are smarter taking the side getting more points...
hey dl36, glad to see you starting this thread again. I'll be looking forward to contributing each week.
I will be taking your advice from last season and not include totals in the teasers. I went back and reviewed my wagers from last year and the totals really screwed me. It looks very temping when you can drop a total at 44 down to 31 but nfl games end up low scoring more often than I thought.
Anyways, for week 1 I feel very strongly about Saints +17.5. Obviously the line needs to be at 4.5 still for this to be included...the extra half a point is huge. You will be getting a top 3 QB on national tv getting 2 TDs and a FG.
As a niner fan, I like the 49er +8 pick. Home debut for their rookie coach. good spot for the team to show up. also niners have owned seahawks in SF for the past couple years.
huego...
I am glad you are familiar with the thread, I hope you and others who are familiar with my style continue to contribute...
I should have listenned to you and others about NO, but i didnt want to rush picks just to get that one in... Your understanding of the numbers on teasers for this pick to work is obvious....
I am with you on the SF pick... SF could win this game on defense alone with SEA having a new/questionable starting QB and the lock out not giving them as much time to get things together...
SF beat SEA at home last year easily, but to think they have owned SEA is perhaps a homer call as they have actually split 3-3 in the last 3 seasons and lost in week 1 last year to SEA 6-31...
With that said +8 is a nice number and I am already leaning in that direction...
GL this season
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Quote Originally Posted by XhuegoX:
hey dl36, glad to see you starting this thread again. I'll be looking forward to contributing each week.
I will be taking your advice from last season and not include totals in the teasers. I went back and reviewed my wagers from last year and the totals really screwed me. It looks very temping when you can drop a total at 44 down to 31 but nfl games end up low scoring more often than I thought.
Anyways, for week 1 I feel very strongly about Saints +17.5. Obviously the line needs to be at 4.5 still for this to be included...the extra half a point is huge. You will be getting a top 3 QB on national tv getting 2 TDs and a FG.
As a niner fan, I like the 49er +8 pick. Home debut for their rookie coach. good spot for the team to show up. also niners have owned seahawks in SF for the past couple years.
huego...
I am glad you are familiar with the thread, I hope you and others who are familiar with my style continue to contribute...
I should have listenned to you and others about NO, but i didnt want to rush picks just to get that one in... Your understanding of the numbers on teasers for this pick to work is obvious....
I am with you on the SF pick... SF could win this game on defense alone with SEA having a new/questionable starting QB and the lock out not giving them as much time to get things together...
SF beat SEA at home last year easily, but to think they have owned SEA is perhaps a homer call as they have actually split 3-3 in the last 3 seasons and lost in week 1 last year to SEA 6-31...
With that said +8 is a nice number and I am already leaning in that direction...
I think when using teaser my simple philosophy is pick underdogs that you think the line may be slightly off and you could even see the team winning outright 25% of the time. Never cross the 0 mark in teasers. (unless its short fav of 1.5 or less) Yes New England should win handily but +6 offers zero value. here's my favorites
Cowboys +17.5
Steelers +18
Bears +16
having a little trouble with a good 4th one
Bills +18.5 or Titans +12
BOL
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I think when using teaser my simple philosophy is pick underdogs that you think the line may be slightly off and you could even see the team winning outright 25% of the time. Never cross the 0 mark in teasers. (unless its short fav of 1.5 or less) Yes New England should win handily but +6 offers zero value. here's my favorites
Never cross 0 even if it looks like a good bet, your getting no value this way. Look for lines that cross the most key numbers (3,4,6,7,10 in NFL) because games end on these numbers more than any other number. +3 would be a great number to tease even a 2 or 3 game teaser because it will cross all key numbers passing +10.
Best teams I would put in a teaser are these in order:
Chargers Bears Redskins Rams Bills
0
Never cross 0 even if it looks like a good bet, your getting no value this way. Look for lines that cross the most key numbers (3,4,6,7,10 in NFL) because games end on these numbers more than any other number. +3 would be a great number to tease even a 2 or 3 game teaser because it will cross all key numbers passing +10.
Best teams I would put in a teaser are these in order:
I teased a LOT of totals in preseason - look at Week 3 of preseason - where all 15 games teased over until MNF (Jets/Giants).
I actually think totals can make sense - how does DEN/OAK teased down to 27 not seem like better than 84% chance to hit.
I also agree if you are going thru 0 - NE has to be included. It's too bad line moved from 4.5 to 7 - as teasing at 4.5 to 8.5 is a lot better than teasing to 6.
I did the math once on totals a long time ago I believe my data set was like 1993-2005 and found that there is no difference in totals and side in terms of the +13 point cushion.. So for me it is more of a matter of familiarity...
I think one thing that would help is if we could see a distribution of total scores in the NFL... what are the total number of points that most games end in so that we know the value of certain numbers... I do sides more out of familiarity and that 3,6,7,10,13,14,17,20,21, are clearly important with 3 and 7 being most important so I know if the line has value...
maybe you can post your totals every week and lets keep track of how things go...
This thread is alot about learning as I would rather become a better gambler through experience (mine and others) then just be tout...
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Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:
I teased a LOT of totals in preseason - look at Week 3 of preseason - where all 15 games teased over until MNF (Jets/Giants).
I actually think totals can make sense - how does DEN/OAK teased down to 27 not seem like better than 84% chance to hit.
I also agree if you are going thru 0 - NE has to be included. It's too bad line moved from 4.5 to 7 - as teasing at 4.5 to 8.5 is a lot better than teasing to 6.
I did the math once on totals a long time ago I believe my data set was like 1993-2005 and found that there is no difference in totals and side in terms of the +13 point cushion.. So for me it is more of a matter of familiarity...
I think one thing that would help is if we could see a distribution of total scores in the NFL... what are the total number of points that most games end in so that we know the value of certain numbers... I do sides more out of familiarity and that 3,6,7,10,13,14,17,20,21, are clearly important with 3 and 7 being most important so I know if the line has value...
maybe you can post your totals every week and lets keep track of how things go...
This thread is alot about learning as I would rather become a better gambler through experience (mine and others) then just be tout...
This looks good and it makes me wish I would have locked in earlier to get that DET +14.5 line... I have it +14 (bodog), +13 (5dimes)...
PIT has also dropped to +1/pick...
Similar to the NO game, DET might be a decent pick to keep it close because they can pass the ball... but their defense is what scares me in general... this results in more variability and less value on the +13 points ATS... not sure about this pick, especially at +14 (tie=lose)... but it will be one that will be considerred
This looks good and it makes me wish I would have locked in earlier to get that DET +14.5 line... I have it +14 (bodog), +13 (5dimes)...
PIT has also dropped to +1/pick...
Similar to the NO game, DET might be a decent pick to keep it close because they can pass the ball... but their defense is what scares me in general... this results in more variability and less value on the +13 points ATS... not sure about this pick, especially at +14 (tie=lose)... but it will be one that will be considerred
I think those 3 win outright.Flip a coin between the next two; can’t see either losing.
Patriots +6
Texans +4
The BUF pick scares me because if KC is able to establish the run and against a BUF defense that struggled with the run... they will just pound the ball and possibly blow them out...
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Quote Originally Posted by phillipnorris:
Titans +15
Bills +18.5
Lions +14.5 (Bucs fan here)
I think those 3 win outright.Flip a coin between the next two; can’t see either losing.
Patriots +6
Texans +4
The BUF pick scares me because if KC is able to establish the run and against a BUF defense that struggled with the run... they will just pound the ball and possibly blow them out...
I think when using teaser my simple philosophy is pick underdogs that you think the line may be slightly off and you could even see the team winning outright 25% of the time. Never cross the 0 mark in teasers. (unless its short fav of 1.5 or less) Yes New England should win handily but +6 offers zero value. here's my favorites
Cowboys +17.5
Steelers +18
Bears +16
having a little trouble with a good 4th one
Bills +18.5 or Titans +12
BOL
I think your guide lines work better for 6-7 point teasers... although teasing favs with that type and not cross the zero, but crossing the -3 makes sense...
Im interested in your DAL pick... I think that DAL getting that many points is good value at that number getting more then 17 points... 5.5 is a nice number +13 points because you get +7.5 on the other side..
Im with you on TEN and getting +14 although not a great number is a nice cushion... Im definately adding that one...
So this is what I got so far...
NE +6
BAL: +11
SF +8
TEN +14 DAL +18.5
Any more ideas or suggestions?
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Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:
I think when using teaser my simple philosophy is pick underdogs that you think the line may be slightly off and you could even see the team winning outright 25% of the time. Never cross the 0 mark in teasers. (unless its short fav of 1.5 or less) Yes New England should win handily but +6 offers zero value. here's my favorites
Cowboys +17.5
Steelers +18
Bears +16
having a little trouble with a good 4th one
Bills +18.5 or Titans +12
BOL
I think your guide lines work better for 6-7 point teasers... although teasing favs with that type and not cross the zero, but crossing the -3 makes sense...
Im interested in your DAL pick... I think that DAL getting that many points is good value at that number getting more then 17 points... 5.5 is a nice number +13 points because you get +7.5 on the other side..
Im with you on TEN and getting +14 although not a great number is a nice cushion... Im definately adding that one...
I think it is great to see this write up because I have been trying to come up with the same thing. I myself would follow the super bowl loser trend and tease the ravens at home. This is a like an early season super bowl for them and they have revenge on their minds since the schedule came out.
Ravens +12 Eagles + 9.5 Browns + 6.5 and last but not least I would put the texans in +4
if I was to leave any of them out or change my mind. I would drop the texans and add the Falcons plus 11. Cant go wrong with that pick either. The first 3 picks are my strongest and they are in no matter what. What does everybody think?
0
I think it is great to see this write up because I have been trying to come up with the same thing. I myself would follow the super bowl loser trend and tease the ravens at home. This is a like an early season super bowl for them and they have revenge on their minds since the schedule came out.
Ravens +12 Eagles + 9.5 Browns + 6.5 and last but not least I would put the texans in +4
if I was to leave any of them out or change my mind. I would drop the texans and add the Falcons plus 11. Cant go wrong with that pick either. The first 3 picks are my strongest and they are in no matter what. What does everybody think?
Even though I like the Ravens alot because of the trend of 0 and 12 on opening day for the last 12 super bowl losers I think it would be safe to tease the steelers to. These games are always decided by less than 7. My thinking is if one team does have more of a chance to actually run up the score a little it would be the ravens. I am not saying the ravens are a better team I just like them in this spot.
0
Even though I like the Ravens alot because of the trend of 0 and 12 on opening day for the last 12 super bowl losers I think it would be safe to tease the steelers to. These games are always decided by less than 7. My thinking is if one team does have more of a chance to actually run up the score a little it would be the ravens. I am not saying the ravens are a better team I just like them in this spot.
Thing I learned from the sharpest oddsmakers in Vegas is NEVER TEASE ACROSS 0.
No matter how much you like a team, paying to tease across 0 is a poor strategy since games can't end up -.5, 0, or +.5. That is 1.5 points you are paying for that you can't use. I suppose it could tie... but let's be real.
The best thing is to tease across 2 key numbers. A 1-2.5 point underdog across the key numbers of 3 and 7. Bring your +2.5 to +9.5. Or you -8 favorite to -1. You don't pay extra to go across key numbers.
A 2 team 7 point NFL teaser at -120 is one of the best bets you could possibly make. Hell if you can get even better than -120 it's that much more effective.
0
Thing I learned from the sharpest oddsmakers in Vegas is NEVER TEASE ACROSS 0.
No matter how much you like a team, paying to tease across 0 is a poor strategy since games can't end up -.5, 0, or +.5. That is 1.5 points you are paying for that you can't use. I suppose it could tie... but let's be real.
The best thing is to tease across 2 key numbers. A 1-2.5 point underdog across the key numbers of 3 and 7. Bring your +2.5 to +9.5. Or you -8 favorite to -1. You don't pay extra to go across key numbers.
A 2 team 7 point NFL teaser at -120 is one of the best bets you could possibly make. Hell if you can get even better than -120 it's that much more effective.
I think it is great to see this write up because I have been trying to come up with the same thing. I myself would follow the super bowl loser trend and tease the ravens at home. This is a like an early season super bowl for them and they have revenge on their minds since the schedule came out.
Ravens +12 Eagles + 9.5 Browns + 6.5 and last but not least I would put the texans in +4
if I was to leave any of them out or change my mind. I would drop the texans and add the Falcons plus 11. Cant go wrong with that pick either. The first 3 picks are my strongest and they are in no matter what. What does everybody think?
HOU +4 is a nice number in a nice spot with manning out and the whole IND team being built around him and the offense... I am going to add this pick....
I said earlier about CLE not being a good value and perhaps CLE and NE could make a 6 point 2 team teaser to consider...
You talk about PIT/BAL being close... read what I wrote earlier in the thread about that match up
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Quote Originally Posted by sniper777:
I think it is great to see this write up because I have been trying to come up with the same thing. I myself would follow the super bowl loser trend and tease the ravens at home. This is a like an early season super bowl for them and they have revenge on their minds since the schedule came out.
Ravens +12 Eagles + 9.5 Browns + 6.5 and last but not least I would put the texans in +4
if I was to leave any of them out or change my mind. I would drop the texans and add the Falcons plus 11. Cant go wrong with that pick either. The first 3 picks are my strongest and they are in no matter what. What does everybody think?
HOU +4 is a nice number in a nice spot with manning out and the whole IND team being built around him and the offense... I am going to add this pick....
I said earlier about CLE not being a good value and perhaps CLE and NE could make a 6 point 2 team teaser to consider...
You talk about PIT/BAL being close... read what I wrote earlier in the thread about that match up
Being that the Balt/Pitt games have been within 3 points the last several matchups, wouldnt it behoove you to play both sides on the same teaser? This would be my recommendation:
Pittsburgh +12 Baltimore +14 Tennessee +13 Kansas City +8
Jax offense is a complete mess. MJD comning off surgery, Luke McCown 1-7 as a starter. Enough said.
Whether or not Cassel is hurt in week 1 is irrelevant. KC is one of the toughest places for a road team to win in all of football. Not to mention that Buffalo gave up the most yards on the ground and have done nothing to correct that issue. Facing a 3-headed monster in KC spells major FAIL for Buffalo ( Jamaal, T. Jones & McCluster ). Dont forget, Buffalo is also without Lee Evans. Lockdown Stevie Johnson and Buffalo will fall flat on their face week 1.
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:
I agree with you about adding NE... I also think that the lock out
favors teams like NE that have consistency in QB and offensive scheme...
NE +6
BAL: +11
SF +8
PHI +8.5
Any more ideas or suggestions?
0
Being that the Balt/Pitt games have been within 3 points the last several matchups, wouldnt it behoove you to play both sides on the same teaser? This would be my recommendation:
Pittsburgh +12 Baltimore +14 Tennessee +13 Kansas City +8
Jax offense is a complete mess. MJD comning off surgery, Luke McCown 1-7 as a starter. Enough said.
Whether or not Cassel is hurt in week 1 is irrelevant. KC is one of the toughest places for a road team to win in all of football. Not to mention that Buffalo gave up the most yards on the ground and have done nothing to correct that issue. Facing a 3-headed monster in KC spells major FAIL for Buffalo ( Jamaal, T. Jones & McCluster ). Dont forget, Buffalo is also without Lee Evans. Lockdown Stevie Johnson and Buffalo will fall flat on their face week 1.
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:
I agree with you about adding NE... I also think that the lock out
favors teams like NE that have consistency in QB and offensive scheme...
playing both sides of the teaser is something i have not done in over a decade... not sure how I feel about the whole thing because I am so used to picking one side... technically since I look at the variance from the spread as an angle, I guess in a game with such low possible variance both sides would make sense... But Im not sure if I can stomach it...
Im not sure if I am on KC but I agree with your analysis and I am not on BUF...
0
paramount...
playing both sides of the teaser is something i have not done in over a decade... not sure how I feel about the whole thing because I am so used to picking one side... technically since I look at the variance from the spread as an angle, I guess in a game with such low possible variance both sides would make sense... But Im not sure if I can stomach it...
Im not sure if I am on KC but I agree with your analysis and I am not on BUF...
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