Urdaddy's NFL Week 1 Prediction Thread

Happy 2009-2010 NFL football season all!

I’m a long time poster and follower at Covers. I’m going to attempt a consistent, season long, posting of my analysis, predictions, and wagers in one thread every week. I’d like to preface my first thread with a statement and some commentary. First off, I’m not looking for people to tail my picks. My posts are for those that are interested in seeing another person’s view on the games. If I happen to be on the other side of you and you totally disagree with my analysis – so be it, best of luck to you. If you happen to agree, that’s great too and maybe you will feel a little more confident on that game should you choose to play it. My goal is to post at least a brief analysis for each game along with a predicted final score. I’m obviously a gambler too, and I know better than to play every game. For documentation purposes for myself and to measure myself against the great cappers in these forums, I will post exactly what I play in my thread each week. Again my intent is to maintain a consistent thread every week this year whether it get good, bad, or ugly. I welcome open conversation and debate. Shit, I don’t even mind if you blast or praise me once in awhile. Just don’t blame me for your gambling endeavors, whether they're winning or losing. I look forward to a great football season with you clowns, let’s make some money.

Titans @ Steelers

What a matchup to start out the season, 2 of the top 6 teams in the league going head to head Week 1. The more I think about this game, the more I wonder what has changed from last year’s matchup that would produce a different outcome. Obviously, the most significant difference if the loss of Haynesworth for the Titans. In addition, the game is in Pittsburgh this year. Outside of that, these two teams look very much like they did last year. I don’t particularly think that the Titans will benefit from a +4 turnover differential in Thursday’s game like they did last year. That being said, I do believe that that Big Ben is more prone to turnovers in games like this. Yes he is one of the best big game QBs of our time, but traditionally this type of game (regular season vs. another elite team) is where he shows he’s human. Bottom line, it’s in Pitt and neither team will be +4 in turnovers. Steelers win a close one. From a total standpoint, despite the great defenses there are way too many fast and dynamic skill players on the field to think this total won’t go over. Watch out for Kenny Britt, he’s gonna be a good one in this league for awhile.

Prediction – Steelers 24 Titans 21

Dolphins @ Falcons

I know why the lines makers have this line set at Falcons -4, and in my  opinion it’s all because of public perception. You have Michael Turner the fantasy stud and elite NFL RB. You also have Matt Ryan the standout rookie with boy next door looks and attitude. Big bank Roddy White and newly acquired HOF TE Tony Gonzales. On the other side, what’s so sexy about the Dolphins. Chad Pennington? The aging bookend OLBs Joey Porter and Jason Taylor? Here’s the difference in this game…….the Falcons defense – or lack thereof. It may surprise you to know that the Dolphins were in the top 10 in passing last year . We know they can and will run the football with Parcells in power. The front four of the Dolphins is rock solid and will hold Turner to an avg game by his standards. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will score and score a lot! I know why they (lines makers) did it, but the wrong team is favored here. In addition, for those of you that look at this total and think it’s high…….by midseason you will see Falcons game totals set in the 50s consistently.

Prediction – Dolphins 34 Falcons 20

Eagles @ Panthers

As a Cowboys fan, I hate to say that if someone were to give me free money to bet on a NFC team to make the Super Bowl – it would be the Eagles. I don’t necessarily think the Eagles are the best team in Week 1, but come playoff time I think they will be. This matchup is a tough one for me and another likely “no play”. Both teams are a little banged up, especially on defense. This line initially came out as Panthers -3 and wasn’t immediately pounded all the way to the Eagles -1.5 with most books. Normally that would scare me to the high heavens, but I think the public is on to something here. Carolina is traditionally very tough at home and this season should be no different. That being said, I think the Eagles have too much horse power in this one. Look for McNabb to have a big game!

Prediction – Eagles 31 Panthers 27

Broncos @ Bengals

If you catch me watching this game on Sunday, you’ll likely find my eyes bleeding. Broncos fans, I’m sorry but I think you are in for a very long season. Most of you know that already. The big question mark for me is the Broncos offensive line which has historically been the foundation of the team. Never mind the new coach, new QB, rookie running back, and pissed off star WR. On the other hand, you have the enigma which is the Cincinnati Bengals. I definitely don’t think Cedric Benson is good enough to start for any NFL team, but I like what the Bengals did with the acquisition of Coles and having Henry as a 3^rd WR.  They can and will spread the field and their success will depend on their ability to protect Carson Palmer. Even more importantly, keep him healthy. The Bengals will be one dimensional versus anyone with a good front 4, but versus Denver it won’t matter. Broncos might win 1 road game all year, and this isn’t it. Bengals are the play, but the better play may be the under.

Prediction – Bengals 20 Broncos 12

Vikings @ Browns

The addition of Brett Favre is not enough to make a team like the Minnesota Vikings a 4 point fav on the road Week 1. To me it’s ridiculous and 100% public perception. Most fans love AP. Most fans love Brett Favre. The Browns? Oh my god, they can’t even decide on a QB - they’re terrible! As Lee Corso says, not so fast my friends! This game is shaping up to be a public blood bath in my opinion. I see the equation - a playoff team from last year that added the best statistical QB of all time vs. the lowly Brown laying less than a TD. Come on over to my van little boy, I got some candy for ya. Brett Favre barely knows this offense! What does that mean? I’ll tell you, gunslinger mode……which equals at least 2 INTs. I believe the Browns were 2^nd or 3^rd in the NFL in picks last year. Do you think maybe Mangini might know a thing or two about what Favre is still capable of doing and what he isn’t? Maybe what hot routes he likes to throw when he sees blitz (shit I know that - it’s the slant EVERYTIME)? Granted, Cleveland is not a very good team……but there is no justification for them to be 4 pt home dogs to the Vikings in Week 1. To quote another great man, my 3 yr old son, “I mell a kunk”. I’m making a slightly bold score prediction to drive the point home.

Prediction – Browns 21 Vikings 10

Jets @ Texans

Not a whole lot of insight for everyone on this game. Texans are an unknown for me. They will likely still be in the bottom 3^rd of the league in total defense this year. Shaun Cody is an upgrade. Cato June on the IR hurts and Brian Cushing is unproven. Granted, Jets are “new” everywhere. Remind me a lot of the Broncos, except better. I have been watching and betting football for decades now and if there is one I have learned it is - don’t expect something different from an underperformer until they show you otherwise. Texans have yet to best 8-8 in franchise history. I’ll drink the Kool-Aid once they show me how good it is. Something tells me Coach Ryan, Sanchez, and the Jets D can keep this game within a FG. I’ll give the Texans the win outright though. Definite no play on either the side or the total for me.

Prediction – Texans 24 Jets 21

Jags @ Colts

I’m a firm believer that the Colts' prime has past them by. Their scheme is old, especially when playing teams in their own division. I don’t think Caldwell was the right man for the job. I understand he earned it and they wanted to promote from within, but he’s not bringing anything new to the team. Manning is his own offensive coordinator anyway, they should have went with a hard nose defensive guy. Colts will still win 10 games and likely win the division, but I just don’t see them as the team to beat anymore. Colts have won 7 of the last 10 against the Jags, but only 2 of those wins have been by more than 7 points (and 1 was an 8 point victory). Granted  3 of the 7 wins were by a margin of exactly 7, but the spread is staying pretty rigid at 7 with a couple of 7.5 or 8 pt lines around. In addition, 2 of the Jags 3 wins were in Indianapolis. I really love Coach Del Rio and the attitude he brings to his team. They carry that same attitude on the field, especially defensively. I like the Jags to shock the Colts at home again with an outright win. I love the under as well.

Prediction – Jags 17 Colts 14