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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Turning $2250 into $100K on opening weekend with little risk....

    «First Previous 12345 Next Last»
    bk1374
    rudy22
    matty441204
    FadeThisXen
    TRAIN69
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    bk1374
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2014 - 8:48 PM ET #51

    The title of your thread makes so little sense relative to your actual wager, and the true definition of risk, it's not even funny.


    Ok, well, it's a little bit funny.
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    The title of your thread makes so little sense relative to your actual wager, and the true definition of risk, it's not even funny.


    Ok, well, it's a little bit funny.
     
    rudy22
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2014 - 9:48 PM ET #52

    Quote Originally Posted by matty441204:

    So stay with me for a sec, then give me your honest opinion on if I'm nuts or not...

    So I do a 4-team ML parlay putting down $2250

    PHI - gimme game
    DEN - Peyton + Sunday night football + Revenge - Mathis = WIN
    CHI - That offense at home against inexperience Bills - Byrd = WIN
    Pats - Healthy Gronk + stud secondary + gimpy Wallace + whole offseason for Belichick to plan = WIN

    Payoff is $4943.51

    Now, I drop $4900 on an 8 team ML parlay including the above 4 games, but adding 

    STL
    KC
    WAS
    DET

    I'm not nearly as confident about these four as my original for, but they all seem likely to win straight up.

    Total payoff on 8-teamer is $96,464.64

    Total take home $96,464.64 + $4943.51 = $101,408.15




    And if the 8-team loses, I still walk away with a cool $43.51 to buy some dinner 

    Sound good?

    Matty


    Only bet your first set.
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    Quote Originally Posted by matty441204:

    So stay with me for a sec, then give me your honest opinion on if I'm nuts or not...

    So I do a 4-team ML parlay putting down $2250

    PHI - gimme game
    DEN - Peyton + Sunday night football + Revenge - Mathis = WIN
    CHI - That offense at home against inexperience Bills - Byrd = WIN
    Pats - Healthy Gronk + stud secondary + gimpy Wallace + whole offseason for Belichick to plan = WIN

    Payoff is $4943.51

    Now, I drop $4900 on an 8 team ML parlay including the above 4 games, but adding 

    STL
    KC
    WAS
    DET

    I'm not nearly as confident about these four as my original for, but they all seem likely to win straight up.

    Total payoff on 8-teamer is $96,464.64

    Total take home $96,464.64 + $4943.51 = $101,408.15




    And if the 8-team loses, I still walk away with a cool $43.51 to buy some dinner 

    Sound good?

    Matty


    Only bet your first set.
     
    matty441204
    matty441204
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2014 - 10:14 PM ET #53

    Quote Originally Posted by lpforsythe8:

    How do you expect to win $4943.51 on the first 4-team parlay, and then use the winnings from that parlay to bet on an 8-team parlay that contains 4 of the same teams on the previous parlay? I don't know a sportsbook that would let you bet on games that are already finished 

    Did you actually read the thread??? 
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    Quote Originally Posted by lpforsythe8:

    How do you expect to win $4943.51 on the first 4-team parlay, and then use the winnings from that parlay to bet on an 8-team parlay that contains 4 of the same teams on the previous parlay? I don't know a sportsbook that would let you bet on games that are already finished 

    Did you actually read the thread??? 
     
    FadeThisXen
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2014 - 10:47 PM ET #54

    Denver could lose, only because Andrew Luck is a beast.  Richardson finally gets the playbook, Colts have a stout defense.  They won last year @ home vs. Denver, it could happen at Mile High.  Denver's defense is good on paper, they haven't shown me yet they're good playing together.  That usually takes time.

    Buffalo could upset Chicago, because that defensive front seven is damn good.  Maybe ML on Bears, but it's a big maybe.

    Patriots don't have weapons, too much inconsistency outside Brady.  Home dogs are consistently good odds.

    Eagles seems too good to be true...


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    Denver could lose, only because Andrew Luck is a beast.  Richardson finally gets the playbook, Colts have a stout defense.  They won last year @ home vs. Denver, it could happen at Mile High.  Denver's defense is good on paper, they haven't shown me yet they're good playing together.  That usually takes time.

    Buffalo could upset Chicago, because that defensive front seven is damn good.  Maybe ML on Bears, but it's a big maybe.

    Patriots don't have weapons, too much inconsistency outside Brady.  Home dogs are consistently good odds.

    Eagles seems too good to be true...


     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2014 - 11:19 PM ET #55

    What does the opposite of all your picks pay? The only fav that "should be easy" is Philly. The rest are coinflips in reality, being the NFL and week 1.

    If I were you, I would definately put these in a round robin.

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    What does the opposite of all your picks pay? The only fav that "should be easy" is Philly. The rest are coinflips in reality, being the NFL and week 1.

    If I were you, I would definately put these in a round robin.

     
    matty441204
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 12:46 AM ET #56

    Quote Originally Posted by FadeThisXen:

    Denver could lose, only because Andrew Luck is a beast.  Richardson finally gets the playbook, Colts have a stout defense.  They won last year @ home vs. Denver, it could happen at Mile High.  Denver's defense is good on paper, they haven't shown me yet they're good playing together.  That usually takes time.

    Ok, seriously?

    Name me ONE position on offense where the broncos don't have the better player.

    On defense.....?

    Perhaps Indy has an edge at inside LB with Jackson, but that's about it.

    I'd take Denver's QB, WRs, TE, RB, and O-line easily over anyone on the Colts (please try and tell me who you'd rather have on your offense from the Colts instead of the Broncos). Their OLBs are obviously better, CBs are better (assuming Harris is recovered from ACL), at safety I think Ward is better than Landry, and Moore/Howell is a wash, D-line....think I still go with Denver.

    So how exactly are they gonna beat Denver IN Denver?

    Oh, and you think Peyton doesn't have a HUGE behind chip on his shoulder wanting to shove a win down Irsay's throat?


    Buffalo could upset Chicago, because that defensive front seven is damn good.  Maybe ML on Bears, but it's a big maybe.

    Buffalo COULD upset Chicago, but they don't have the offense to keep up.  And with Alonso out (and his back up suspended) and no more Byrd, I don't know how that D contains Forte and the two beast WRs.  

    Patriots don't have weapons, too much inconsistency outside Brady.  Home dogs are consistently good odds.

    Ridley, Vereen, Amendola, Edelman, Gronk, and Lafell will provide plenty of options for Brady.  They won with less than that last year.  Miami's run game is nothing, especially with Moreno gimpy.  Wallace is gimpy as well, not to mention he'll most likely be high to celebrate opening weekend.

    Eagles seems too good to be true...

    No way they don't beat the jags by at least a TD

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    Quote Originally Posted by FadeThisXen:

    Denver could lose, only because Andrew Luck is a beast.  Richardson finally gets the playbook, Colts have a stout defense.  They won last year @ home vs. Denver, it could happen at Mile High.  Denver's defense is good on paper, they haven't shown me yet they're good playing together.  That usually takes time.

    Ok, seriously?

    Name me ONE position on offense where the broncos don't have the better player.

    On defense.....?

    Perhaps Indy has an edge at inside LB with Jackson, but that's about it.

    I'd take Denver's QB, WRs, TE, RB, and O-line easily over anyone on the Colts (please try and tell me who you'd rather have on your offense from the Colts instead of the Broncos). Their OLBs are obviously better, CBs are better (assuming Harris is recovered from ACL), at safety I think Ward is better than Landry, and Moore/Howell is a wash, D-line....think I still go with Denver.

    So how exactly are they gonna beat Denver IN Denver?

    Oh, and you think Peyton doesn't have a HUGE behind chip on his shoulder wanting to shove a win down Irsay's throat?


    Buffalo could upset Chicago, because that defensive front seven is damn good.  Maybe ML on Bears, but it's a big maybe.

    Buffalo COULD upset Chicago, but they don't have the offense to keep up.  And with Alonso out (and his back up suspended) and no more Byrd, I don't know how that D contains Forte and the two beast WRs.  

    Patriots don't have weapons, too much inconsistency outside Brady.  Home dogs are consistently good odds.

    Ridley, Vereen, Amendola, Edelman, Gronk, and Lafell will provide plenty of options for Brady.  They won with less than that last year.  Miami's run game is nothing, especially with Moreno gimpy.  Wallace is gimpy as well, not to mention he'll most likely be high to celebrate opening weekend.

    Eagles seems too good to be true...

    No way they don't beat the jags by at least a TD

     
    Hawky
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 3:07 AM ET #57

    I don't see the hype in PHI, jags could win 6 or 7

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    I don't see the hype in PHI, jags could win 6 or 7

     
    Unstoppable Force
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 3:12 AM ET #58

    Best of luck 
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    Best of luck 
     
    jimmybeam
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 10:17 AM ET #59

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    If I were you, I would definately put these in a round robin.

    Yeah, why don't you just take the 4 teams you like, take your $7,000 and change you're wagering with, and round robin 'em? This seems like a lot smarter wager, and you're odds of actually winning $$$$ goes way up. I don't know why you're fixated on this $100,000 number, but you'll go real broke real fast with that kind of wagering mentality.......

    Good luck
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    If I were you, I would definately put these in a round robin.

    Yeah, why don't you just take the 4 teams you like, take your $7,000 and change you're wagering with, and round robin 'em? This seems like a lot smarter wager, and you're odds of actually winning $$$$ goes way up. I don't know why you're fixated on this $100,000 number, but you'll go real broke real fast with that kind of wagering mentality.......

    Good luck
     
    matty441204
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 12:20 PM ET #60

    Quote Originally Posted by Hawky:

    I don't see the hype in PHI, jags could win 6 or 7


    They could win 6 or 7 what?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawky:

    I don't see the hype in PHI, jags could win 6 or 7


    They could win 6 or 7 what?
     
    lpforsythe8
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 4:09 PM ET #61

    Quote Originally Posted by matty441204:


    Did you actually read the thread??? 

    No, I read your first post, in which you clearly state: 

    Quote Originally Posted by matty441204:

     

    So I do a 4-team ML parlay putting down $2250

    Payoff is $4943.51

    Now, I drop $4900 on an 8 team ML parlay including the above 4 games

    So, again, how are you planning to bet on an 8-team parlay containing the previous 4 teams with the winnings from that 4-team parlay?
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    Quote Originally Posted by matty441204:


    Did you actually read the thread??? 

    No, I read your first post, in which you clearly state: 

    Quote Originally Posted by matty441204:

     

    So I do a 4-team ML parlay putting down $2250

    Payoff is $4943.51

    Now, I drop $4900 on an 8 team ML parlay including the above 4 games

    So, again, how are you planning to bet on an 8-team parlay containing the previous 4 teams with the winnings from that 4-team parlay?
     
    matty441204
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 4:38 PM ET #62

    You can read the whole thread if you want your answer
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    You can read the whole thread if you want your answer
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 4:43 PM ET #63

    Name me ONE position on offense where the broncos don't have the better player

     

    Quarterback.

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    Name me ONE position on offense where the broncos don't have the better player

     

    Quarterback.

     
    matty441204
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 4:44 PM ET #64

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Name me ONE position on offense where the broncos don't have the better player

     

    Quarterback.


    LOL.  Cute.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Name me ONE position on offense where the broncos don't have the better player

     

    Quarterback.


    LOL.  Cute.
     
    DogHouse
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 5:10 PM ET #65

    Van... LVHSC again this year? Cant wait! Same entry name? Would love to check my wagers with your thoughts all season.
    Gl
    *handshake*
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    Van... LVHSC again this year? Cant wait! Same entry name? Would love to check my wagers with your thoughts all season.
    Gl
    *handshake*
     
    matty441204
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 5:38 PM ET #66

    Also Train, I find it funny that you bash my proposed bets that are about a 30% and 5% chance of winning, while you post underdog parlays with <0.5% chance of winning.  That makes sense.

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    Also Train, I find it funny that you bash my proposed bets that are about a 30% and 5% chance of winning, while you post underdog parlays with <0.5% chance of winning.  That makes sense.

     
    matty441204
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 8:08 PM ET #67

    Sorry train...guess I mentally lumped you in with the other people on this thread.  You never really bashed anything.  My bad

    GL with your parlays.
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    Sorry train...guess I mentally lumped you in with the other people on this thread.  You never really bashed anything.  My bad

    GL with your parlays.
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 9:04 PM ET #68

    Quote Originally Posted by DogHouse:

    Van... LVHSC again this year? Cant wait! Same entry name? Would love to check my wagers with your thoughts all season.
    Gl
    *handshake*

    Im already signed up - same name - you?

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DogHouse:

    Van... LVHSC again this year? Cant wait! Same entry name? Would love to check my wagers with your thoughts all season.
    Gl
    *handshake*

    Im already signed up - same name - you?

     
    rudy22
    rudy22
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 11:30 PM ET #69

    Quote Originally Posted by peter10:

    Brady plays like a stiff in Miami very possible loss 

    Chicago is a bad favorite i can see Buffalo with an upset 

    Denver no sure thing 

    I see the Eagles  as the only sure thing ,one of the above will lose 

    Bears will not lose.


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    Quote Originally Posted by peter10:

    Brady plays like a stiff in Miami very possible loss 

    Chicago is a bad favorite i can see Buffalo with an upset 

    Denver no sure thing 

    I see the Eagles  as the only sure thing ,one of the above will lose 

    Bears will not lose.


     
    rudy22
    rudy22
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2014 - 11:34 PM ET #70

    Quote Originally Posted by lpforsythe8:

    How do you expect to win $4943.51 on the first 4-team parlay, and then use the winnings from that parlay to bet on an 8-team parlay that contains 4 of the same teams on the previous parlay? I don't know a sportsbook that would let you bet on games that are already finished 

    You need to re-read what he wrote.
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    Quote Originally Posted by lpforsythe8:

    How do you expect to win $4943.51 on the first 4-team parlay, and then use the winnings from that parlay to bet on an 8-team parlay that contains 4 of the same teams on the previous parlay? I don't know a sportsbook that would let you bet on games that are already finished 

    You need to re-read what he wrote.
     
    BigChris51
    BigChris51
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    Posted: Aug. 6, 2014 - 1:17 AM ET #71

    Matty
    I understand your logic. I get it! The problem I see here and to me it's a HUGE one is that this isn't last year bro, this is a new year and it's week 1.

    Would you agree that the 2 most unpredictable weeks in NFL is Week 1 and Week 17? Do you agree?

    Well if you said yes and you should've then do yourself a favor and save your money.
    Whatever the odds are on hitting an 8 game parlay in NFL, you might as well double those odds for week 1.

    A steak dinner isn't a good consolation.

    You feel me bro?
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    Matty
    I understand your logic. I get it! The problem I see here and to me it's a HUGE one is that this isn't last year bro, this is a new year and it's week 1.

    Would you agree that the 2 most unpredictable weeks in NFL is Week 1 and Week 17? Do you agree?

    Well if you said yes and you should've then do yourself a favor and save your money.
    Whatever the odds are on hitting an 8 game parlay in NFL, you might as well double those odds for week 1.

    A steak dinner isn't a good consolation.

    You feel me bro?
     
    DogHouse
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    Posted: Aug. 6, 2014 - 7:42 AM ET #72

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Quote Originally Posted by DogHouse:

    Van... LVHSC
    again this year? Cant wait! Same entry name? Would love to check my wagers with your thoughts all season.Gl*handshake*

    Im already signed up - same name - you?

    Not this year. Involved in a few other things which are tying up some funds. I think i will do it next year. But i will track my own picks and match it up for fun. Best of luck and into the top 5 this year! Hell i hope you win it!
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Quote Originally Posted by DogHouse:

    Van... LVHSC
    again this year? Cant wait! Same entry name? Would love to check my wagers with your thoughts all season.Gl*handshake*

    Im already signed up - same name - you?

    Not this year. Involved in a few other things which are tying up some funds. I think i will do it next year. But i will track my own picks and match it up for fun. Best of luck and into the top 5 this year! Hell i hope you win it!
     
    Hawky
    Hawky
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    Posted: Aug. 8, 2014 - 11:13 PM ET #73

    Quote Originally Posted by matty441204:


    They could win 6 or 7 what?

    GAMES. what do u think

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    Quote Originally Posted by matty441204:


    They could win 6 or 7 what?

    GAMES. what do u think

     
    Hawky
    Hawky
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    Posted: Aug. 8, 2014 - 11:20 PM ET #74

    nice brain. how will u feel when buf, ind, jkv win first thing

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    nice brain. how will u feel when buf, ind, jkv win first thing

     
     
    canovsp
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    Posted: Aug. 8, 2014 - 11:32 PM ET #75

    In place of an 8 team parlay did you think about playing the lottery instead?
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    In place of an 8 team parlay did you think about playing the lottery instead?
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