Posted:
#26
Thanks Jimmus. Very good post.
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Turning $2250 into $100K on opening weekend with little risk....
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by matty441204:
Ummmm, ok. I'm not describing a long term betting strategy champ. I'm just gonna be in vegas for opening weekend and wanted to have the shot to win some serious cash. I don't think anyone would describe my 4-team parlay of heavy favorites as having some "crazy shot" at winning. It's basically paying me 2:1 if I win, which is a very reasonable proposition.
I'm very aware that the odds are against an 8-team parlay, even if its a ML parlay, but the point was to make some "easy money" with the heavy favorites that seems like very solid picks to me, and then i'd be playing with house money for the huge payoff.
You're acting like I came in and said, "HEY EVERYONE, I'm putting $10K on a 15 team parlay and I'm gonna win a MILLION BUCKS! WOOHOO!"
Just trust me. Your so wrong it's not even funny. If doing this was anywhere close being easy money everyone would do it and it wouldn't pay out like it does. Your obviously new to this stuff and obviously don't know the nfl that well. Just save your money and do it the right way and grind it out 1 bet (1team) at a time. Or learn the hard way like most of us. Although I've never went that crazy.
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Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:
Just trust me. Your so wrong it's not even funny. If doing this was anywhere close being easy money everyone would do it and it wouldn't pay out like it does. Your obviously new to this stuff and obviously don't know the nfl that well. Just save your money and do it the right way and grind it out 1 bet (1team) at a time. Or learn the hard way like most of us. Although I've never went that crazy.
One team at a time????? Where's the fun in that?
I love how you guys are so.....so.....i dunno, angry? Harsh? Bitter? I really don't know what the word to describe the comments on here. Y'all know nothing about me, or how much discretionary income I have. If I wanna risk a couple G's on a fun parlay, and then go nuts with the potential winnings, what's the big deal? I know the NFL very well, and just because i stumbled across your site now, that doesn't mean anything. I'm sure there are 30 year professional sports bettors (not saying that's me) that have never even heard of this site, so duration/number of posts doesn't mean anything about the person posting.
Like I said before, I was just looking for comments on the merits of the games I was picking. A couple of people have been nice enough to comment, the rest of you just seem bitter.
Like what you said quija, "You're so wrong its not even funny." What does that even mean? What specifically did I say that was so wrong? Am I wrong in saying a 4 team ML parlay of NFL favorites is a decent play? Its better odds than say, someone betting $100 bucks that the colts will beat the broncos. There's worse odds that that bet would pay off than my 4-team parlay. So why all the hatred? Is it the simple mention of an 8-team parlay that makes you all cringe? If I had just posted the 4-team pick, what would the response have been?
Seriously, people. Maybe you guys or only interested in play "by the book" and trying to develop winning systems that can be your 'jobs' or whatever. I'm just wanting to have some fun with the chance to make a big payout, and I thought this gave me a little more wiggle room than just dropping $5k on one crazy 8-team parlay. Not looking to "grind out" anything...
Sheesh. Chill out. Enjoy life.
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by Allison_Road:
Ummm, no. Actually you paid $ 2250 for that wonderful dinner. Or did you not care about the fact that you just dropped 2.2 G's ?
Ummm, no. Actually you paid $ 2250 for that wonderful dinner. Or did you not care about the fact that you just dropped 2.2 G's ?
If I win the 4-team parlay, and lose the 8-team parlay, I net $43 bucks on the two bets = dinner time
Lose both = suck
Win both = fun time
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Posted:
#40
Quote Originally Posted by jimmybeam:
Prospect
Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 9
Actually, Joined July, Posts = 9??? I'll lay $50,000 even money that you're wearing the permanent "shackles" by, oh let's say, October 1st - -
$100,000 GUARANTEED!!!!!!!!!!!
I just realized that the person harping on when I joined actually joined a whopping 2 MONTHS before I did. Imagine that. Great post bud.
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Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:
Another f***king loser that won't be here by Week 4.
Another f***king loser that won't be here by Week 4.
Again, you're assuming I'm settling in for a season/lifetime of nfl betting and this will be my week to week strategy?
I don't plan on being 'here' past week 1.
Well, maybe I'll log in after week 1 to post pics my winning tickets 
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Posted:
#42
One team at a time????? Where's the fun in that?
Your post talks about risk and money - not fun. If you are betting for fun, your bet sounds great. If you are betting because you are trying to make money - much less so.
I love how you guys are so.....so.....i dunno, angry? Harsh? Bitter? I really don't know what the word to describe the comments on here. Y'all know nothing about me, or how much discretionary income I have. If I wanna risk a couple G's on a fun parlay, and then go nuts with the potential winnings, what's the big deal?
Once again - you are getting harsh comments because your post said nothing about fun and going nuts. Nobody cares here if you want to blow your money. That's not what you asked though - you stated clearly that you could win 100k with little risk - when in fact your chances of even breaking even are about 30%.
I know the NFL very well, and just because i stumbled across your site now, that doesn't mean anything. I'm sure there are 30 year professional sports bettors (not saying that's me) that have never even heard of this site, so duration/number of posts doesn't mean anything about the person posting.
That is definitely not you.
Like I said before, I was just looking for comments on the merits of the games I was picking. A couple of people have been nice enough to comment, the rest of you just seem bitter.
Then post that question - not your ridiculous first post.
Like what you said quija, "You're so wrong its not even funny." What does that even mean? What specifically did I say that was so wrong? Am I wrong in saying a 4 team ML parlay of NFL favorites is a decent play?
YES.
Its better odds than say, someone betting $100 bucks that the colts will beat the broncos. There's worse odds that that bet would pay off than my 4-team parlay.
Your bet is about the same odds as the colts beating the broncos.
So why all the hatred? Is it the simple mention of an 8-team parlay that makes you all cringe? If I had just posted the 4-team pick, what would the response have been?
The response would have been better if you hadn't included the title "little risk" when you are betting a 30% chance.
Seriously, people. Maybe you guys or only interested in play "by the book" and trying to develop winning systems that can be your 'jobs' or whatever. I'm just wanting to have some fun with the chance to make a big payout, and I thought this gave me a little more wiggle room than just dropping $5k on one crazy 8-team parlay. Not looking to "grind out" anything...
If you are trying to have fun - great. Lots of people here are just like you. But you didn't represent this. Have fun. Enjoy your bet. But it is not a "low risk way to make 100K".
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by matty441204:
So stay with me for a sec, then give me your honest opinion on if I'm nuts or not...
So stay with me for a sec, then give me your honest opinion on if I'm nuts or not...
So I do a 4-team ML parlay putting down $2250
PHI - gimme game
DEN - Peyton + Sunday night football + Revenge - Mathis = WIN
CHI - That offense at home against inexperience Bills - Byrd = WIN
Pats - Healthy Gronk + stud secondary + gimpy Wallace + whole offseason for Belichick to plan = WIN
Payoff is $4943.51
Now, I drop $4900 on an 8 team ML parlay including the above 4 games, but adding
STL
KC
WAS
WAS
DET
I'm not nearly as confident about these four as my original for, but they all seem likely to win straight up.
Total payoff on 8-teamer is $96,464.64
Total take home $96,464.64 + $4943.51 = $101,408.15
And if the 8-team loses, I still walk away with a cool $43.51 to buy some dinner 
Sound good?
Matty
O.K., all kidding aside, I've thought about this, and here's what's bothering me about your so called "wager":
Why not just up your 8 teamer a hundred bucks to $5,000, & you'll wind up not only with over $100,000, but save $2,150 for your precious dinner?
Or
Add the $2,250 and the $4,900 together and just do a 6 team parlay, not sure of the payoff, but I'm sure it's a but tload of cash, and since you're not "confident" in your other 4 teams anyway.....
Seems a more logical way of wagering, yes?
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Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by matty441204:
Again, you're assuming I'm settling in for a season/lifetime of nfl betting and this will be my week to week strategy?
I don't plan on being 'here' past week 1.
Well, maybe I'll log in after week 1 to post pics my winning tickets
I actually love your attitude. It won't be long before all hope and glimmer is sucked away by those that bet on here either for a living, or lose big time and hate all new people with a resh attitude.
Mostly, they are correct, your gonna lose and should probably come up with a slow start to gain money. You will find here, (as it should be) gambling isnt about fun, or at least when you pass 30 yrs. old. Before that, your cocky, head strong, watch the game and pick 70% in your head. You say to yourself, "I knew they would cover" after the game.
But somehow, you remember thinking you said it to yourself "before the game"
You can't really post your feelings on here without being Bashed. Go on a run ? Someone will point out that you will lose soon, accuss you of not making the bets....Lose a few in a row and they will remind you about over and over again. THis site has some experts, even they lose, we all do. THe site also has those who's job it is to keep you confused, betting both sides evenly, but mostly to KEEP u Betting...
R U not in this to make money ? Funny, I remember saying the word FUN on here about 10 years ago under my old login. The economy was kickin behind and the site was packed with guys betting every sat. n sunday.... Million opinions...
Remember... make money.. then use that to play silly bets and hope for a win...I have been floating on the same money in my acct for almost a year now. I am thrilled about that because I have made no DEPOSIT... I also know I have to do better, get another acct. and talk it even more serious... See... No matter how much fun I have when making longshot bets and winning, I still hate losing and the feeling after a weekend of Down 400 vs up 600 sucks... Remove the roller coaster ride. Win most of the time and make money... You will be much much happier in the long run, so will those around you...
Which does your girl like more... The 43.00 olive garden or the 400.00 meal with a room... And which do you like more...
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Posted:
#45
I also believe the NFL is now the hardest game to bet.. It has changed so much with rules, ref bad calls, over the top protection, over the top PAY, that being the biggest change with the attitude of ME. Yes, everyone wants a superbowl... But what good is a pro bowl DB, QB RB, WR, LB, on a team with no playoff hopes, or a late year game when they r losing by 21 after 3 stupid turnovers...
THe NFL is now a 50 / 50 prop for me...Just how vegas wants it... How many sure things did we see last year that turned... Never a sure thing... Because so many of these guys REALLY DONT CARE.... The will speak the words into the Mic after the game, tell it to you and the coaches.... But the turth be told..... 20% of the time...
It is about money... always money for YOU if you are a player...
THey are ruining it a little each year...
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Posted:
#46
Do it !
1- it's your money... and obviously u can afford to lose $2k and not blink an eye.
2- IMO only way to win $$ in sports betting is good long-term money management (but obviously u lack the discipline for that. )
)Or taking a one-time long, long shot with high payout.
It will be like a lottery ticket.. so go ahead and dream big and think of all u can buy when it hits. But don't be disappointed when it doesn't.
I actually hope u hit it.
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Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by jimmybeam:
O.K., all kidding aside, I've thought about this, and here's what's bothering me about your so called "wager":
Why not just up your 8 teamer a hundred bucks to $5,000, & you'll wind up not only with over $100,000, but save $2,150 for your precious dinner?
Or
Add the $2,250 and the $4,900 together and just do a 6 team parlay, not sure of the payoff, but I'm sure it's a but tload of cash, and since you're not "confident" in your other 4 teams anyway.....
Seems a more logical way of wagering, yes?
I don't know how to make my intentions any clearer, but you seem to be missing the point of my two bets. So here goes nothing...
I'm FULLY aware that the 8 team parlay has a VERY small chance of winning ~5% or something like that. I also understand that the 4-teamer with 3 heavy home favorites and a Pats team that I like on the road, has a very decent shot at winning ~30%. You all seem to keep thinking that I'm just "buying a lottery ticket" or something akin to that, and I agree that if I just came on here and said exactly what you suggest "Hey I'm putting $5k on an 8-team parlay!" it'd be pretty much a waste of money.
Its like someone who doubles up on a hand of black jack, and then puts his winnings on 24 black.
Does that not make sense?
I wouldn't just throw down that much cash on simply one very low odds play just for the hell of it. I only plan to use the winnings from the 4-team parlay/teaser. And yes, I'm aware I'm betting simultaneously and not just using the winnings after they've already been won, but, especially if I do the 4-team teaser (which I'm leaning towards), I feel pretty confident.
Is this not a solid bet......?
Philly - 5
Broncos and Bears straight up
NE +2.5
How many of you are taking a bet this season that will pay 2/1 or 3/1? Anyone ever gonna take a bet on an underdog that's +200? If so, why knock my 4-team parlay?
BTW, thanks for the solid posts Pipe-Light
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