Posted:
#51
Good stuff
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Trends & Things 2008-2009 NFL review
Posted:
#57
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Posted:
#58
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minus Prior Year Wins |
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Posted:
#69
Quote Originally Posted by yummyness:
hi roberto just finished reading the thread
just wondering wat the last 3 charts mean?
season win line chart
season win line minus prior wins chart
change in wins chart
thanks
These charts have to do with projected season wins for the NFL teams, their respective lines , and the results ( that is times these teams have managed to beat the estimates ( Over ) or underperformed ( Under )
( Team Seasons where the season wins equal the line (push bets) are ignored ) from 1996-2008
The second chart depictcs the difference in the line set by the oddsmakers for season win totals in relation to prior season wins , then the results ...
" how a team's prior year record compares to the line set for them this season (for example if a team was 6-10 last year but has a season win line of 8 1/2 this year, then they would count as a +2 1/2 on the "Net vs Line"): "
Finally , the third chart >>>
" The optimal conditions for a "bounce" are when a team has shown a dramatic change in performance and the theory goes (for many reasons) that the next performance will revert closer to the norm. Well, for NFL squads that jumped up by 3 or more games in the prior year, they have gone 62-39 as UNDER plays in the following season, whereas NFL teams that were 3 or more games worse in the last season are 64-36 as OVER plays. "
"teams with dramatic changes from one season to the next in total wins do tend to revert in the subsequent year, at least in so far as versus the season win total expectancy placed on them by the linemakers. "
2MW
RF
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Posted:
#70
I'm loving the favorite after bye week trend, couldnt sleep tonight so did some more digging that solidifies your trend!
05-06 was very similar to 08-09...check it out
16 Favorites ( 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS )
16 Underdogs ( 2-14 SU & 8-7-1 ATS )
HD : 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS
HF : 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS
RD : 2-10 SU & 6-5-1 ATS
RF : 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS
Favorites won 12 games SU & ATS ( 75.00 % )
Favorites won 2 games SU & lost ATS ( 12.5 % )
Favorites Lost 2 games SU & ATS ( 12.5 % )
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Posted:
#75
thanks for sharing NoStress...
XJET1 ...
Yes they have influenced my plays ...
but some of what I do is in the tracking category
and some others I implement ...
On another note, not sure if a Hilton FOR FUN contest will be moderated through the forum this year ...
Some of you that participated for a few years know all about it ...
I did , as an alternative set up a pool with the 5 ATS side picks...
Because, the spreads will be variable ...as they get adjusted and not fixed ...it won't be the same format as in the real hilton ...but it is up and running nevertheless through the office pools setup...
Good Luck
RF
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