Trends & Things 2008-2009 NFL review

These charts have to do with projected season wins for the NFL teams, their respective lines , and the results ( that is times these teams have managed to beat the estimates ( Over ) or underperformed ( Under )  

( Team Seasons where the season wins equal the line (push bets) are ignored ) from 1996-2008

The second chart depictcs the difference in the line set by the oddsmakers for season win totals in relation to prior season wins , then the results ...

" how a team's prior year record compares to the line set for them this season (for example if a team was 6-10 last year but has a season win line of 8 1/2 this year, then they would count as a +2 1/2 on the "Net vs Line"): "

Finally , the third chart >>>

" The optimal conditions for a "bounce" are when a team has shown a dramatic change in performance and the theory goes (for many reasons) that the next performance will revert closer to the norm. Well, for NFL squads that jumped up by 3 or more games in the prior year, they have gone 62-39 as UNDER plays in the following season, whereas NFL teams that were 3 or more games worse in the last season are 64-36 as OVER plays. "

"teams with dramatic changes from one season to the next in total wins do tend to revert in the subsequent year, at least in so far as versus the season win total expectancy placed on them by the linemakers. "

2MW

RF

I'm loving the favorite after bye week trend, couldnt sleep tonight so did some more digging that solidifies your trend! 

16 Favorites ( 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS )

16 Underdogs ( 2-14 SU & 8-7-1 ATS )

HD : 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS

HF : 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS

RD : 2-10 SU & 6-5-1 ATS

RF : 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS

Favorites won 12 games SU & ATS ( 75.00 %  )

Favorites won 2 games SU & lost ATS ( 12.5 % )

Favorites Lost 2 games SU & ATS ( 12.5 %  )