All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

Trends & Things NFL week 9 2009-2010

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 8748
Posts: 62
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2006
Posts: 1194
Posted: #51
I love this thread but I am on the road in Cal but when I get back in Vegas I will look it up for you.  But I did look over that after Bye favorite and it was holding up a few years back also.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 5456
Posted: #52

Trends as I find them :

NEW ENGLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
New England is 15-2-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
INDIANAPOLIS: 3-11 ATS at home vs. New England
Indianapolis is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home

CHICAGO at SAN FRANCISCO
CHICAGO: 2-8 ATS as road dog of 7pts or less
SAN FRANCISCO: 3-0 ATS at home vs. Chicago

JACKSONVILLE at NY JETS
JACKSONVILLE: 11-0 Over after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
NY JETS are 12-1 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since '97.
NY JETS: 13-2 ATS at home off home loss
JACKSONVILLE is 2-11 ATS  in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.


DENVER at WASHINGTON
NFC vs AFC
WASHINGTON: 0-8 ATS in non-conference games

DETROIT at MINNESOTA
DETROIT: 15-5 Over in road games
 UNDER is 10-5 in Minnesota's last 15 games when playing at home against Detroit

NEW ORLEANS at ST LOUIS
New Orleans is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
NEW ORLEANS: 8-1 ATS as road favorite
ST LOUIS: 5-14 ATS in home games

DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY
Green Bay is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Dallas
 
PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN DIEGO
NFC vs AFC
Philadelphia is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
PHILADELPHIA: 7-1 ATS off division loss

SEATTLE at ARIZONA
SEATTLE: 12-2 Over revenging loss by 21+ points
ARIZONA: 0-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND
KANSAS CITY: 13-4 ATS at Oakland
OAKLAND: 6-0 Under in November games

TAMPA BAY at MIAMI
NFC vs AFC
TAMPA BAY: 47-22 Under off double digit win
MIAMI: 0-6 ATS vs. NFC

ATLANTA at CAROLINA
ATLANTA: 12-2 Under at Carolina
CAROLINA: 6-0 Under at home off road loss

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND
BALTIMORE: 16-5 ATS on grass
CLEVELAND: 6-0 Under off non-conference game

What stands out so far :
How New England has dominated on the road against  Indianapolis
New England  
How well the NY Jets have rebounded at home off a loss
NY JETS 
The discrepancy in trends between New Orleans & St louis is alarming
New Orleans
Kansas City record at oakland is off the charts 
Kansas City
Arizona is showing incapable of covering big spreads ...
Seattle
Atlanta @ Carolina games have been snoozers !
Under


 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 5456
Posted: #53
It is tuesday . but if I had to pick these trend picks right now ...They would be :

Favorites :
Minnesota
NY Jets
New Orleans

Underdogs :
Seattle
Kansas City
New England

Over/Under
Atlanta @ Carolina Under
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 5456
Posted: #54
from my earlier findings :
I only broke down 2006-2007 season in terms of the spreads for teams that did not cover .

the performance of all the teams coming off their bye week during the 2006-2007 season only
16 of the teams were set a favorites
Favorites : ( 16 total )
 
Favorites won 11 games SU & ATS ( 68.75 % )
Favorites won 1 game SU & lost ATS ( 6.25 % )
Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 25.00 % )

The spreads for the favs : -10, 7, 5.5, 6, 3, 4.5, 3, 8, 7.5, 5.5, 16, 1, 3, 3.5, 10, 9 ( 12 of them higher than 3 )

The favs that lost outright blew spreads of - 3, - 4.5, - 7.5, - 1
One more that won but didn't cover the spread : ?
This is the result for teams coming off their Bye weeks for the 2007-2008 NFL season :
 
18 Favorites
14 Underdogs
So, how did the 18 favorites perform coming off their byes :
 
Favorites won 13 games SU & ATS  ( 72.2 % )
Favorites won 1 game SU  & Lost ATS  ( 5.6 % )
Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 22.2 % )
18 of the teams were favorites  ( - 3.5 , 3.5 , 2.5 , 3, 3, 2. 5 , 1 , 3, 2, 2.5, 16, 4, 4.5 , 4.5 , 10, 3, 7.5, 4 )

In red are the spreads of 3 or less
How did these 5 favorites do ?

Now , a review of the performances of all teams coming off a bye week in the 2008-2009 season :
 
Results : 2008-2009 NFL season
Teams coming off their bye week
 
16 Favorites ( 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS )
16 Underdogs ( 4-11-1 SU & 8-8 ATS )
 
HD : 3-3-1 SU & 4-3 ATS
HF : 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS
RD : 1-8 SU & 4-5 ATS
RF : 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS
 
Favorites won 12 games SU & ATS ( 75.00 %  )
Favorites won 2 games SU & lost ATS ( 12.5 % )
Favorites Lost 2 games SU & ATS ( 12.5 %  )
 
 
Again , I did not break down the spreads for the favorites that did not cover them . There were only 4 of them in 2008 , only 5 in 2007 , & 5 in 2006
Thus far this year Favorites coming off a bye week are 9-4 ATS
This week there are 3 favorites coming off a bye week :

Minnesota
NY Jets
Oakland
 
Due to Oakland's bad record coming off a bye week 0-6 ATS and the fact that favorites in whatever series oakland has played in after a bye are 10-1 ATS , a little more research is needed .
Oakland' is a very small favorite in week 10
______________________________

Last check for me tonight :
Oakland's record off a bye last 6 years follow :

2008-2009 : @ NO + 7   L 3-34 
2007-2008 : @ San Diego + 9.5 L 14-28
2006-2007 : vs Cleveland  + 1  L 21-24
2005-2006 : vs San Diego + 1.5 L 14-27
2004-2005 : vs San Diego + 4.5 L 17-23
2003-2004 : @ Detroit - 3 L 13-23
We see that Oakland is 0-6 SU / ATS last 6 years coming off a bye .
The Raiders have only been favored once though failing to win or cover the spread @ Detroit in 2003-2004
Like Detroit was against St Louis , this team favored off the bye may be one to stay away from ., though I am trying to cap into this bye week trend ...and generally the idea is to take all favorites off a bye .
But again , not a good record for Oakland abd just as significant is the fact that Kansas City owns Oakland when the play in their turf .

 Any thoughts ?
***************************
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 5456
Posted: #55
As we approach the end for this year's trend ...I am contemplating posting the NY Jets as the Trend pick of the year . This would be a fitting endorsement of a trend I began tracking last year at over 70 % and has produced as advertised.
NY Jets teams are also backed by very solid trends , while I am concerned about the Vikings trend that follows :
  • Vikings are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
  • Vikings are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
    This reminds me of the trend that New England had been battling as a 10.5 point favorite . ( very similar ) going into week's 9 matchup against Miami.
    Unfortunately , New England won by only 10 points .
    Also despite Detroit's loss by 12 points against Seattle ( only a push by a few ) The Lions, Minnesota's week 10 adversary are 13-4 ATS as a 10.5 point favorite or greater ( according to covers trends )
    As you all know , the spread is far beyond that and may settle at 17 by gametime .

    *********************
    •  
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2009
    Posts: 3142
    Posted: #56
    robert love your week 10 plays actually you got 5 of the same as i got only 1 we disagree on is the rams game i got the saints, after not covering the past 2 games by being BIG favorites i think they do this week GLTU
     
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2009
    Posts: 3142
    Posted: #57
    nevermind i was looking at your 1st post i see you do like the saints on it as well, your picks look good bud, post 53 my only disagreement is the seattle game, i got az, and the k.c game i got oakland....although russel sucks
     
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2009
    Posts: 705
    Posted: #58
    thanks for all the info bro
     
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2009
    Posts: 349
    Posted: #59
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:


  • Vikings are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
  • Vikings are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

    Also despite Detroit's loss by 12 points against Seattle ( only a push by a few ) The Lions, Minnesota's week 10 adversary are 13-4 ATS as a 10.5 point favorite or greater ( according to covers trends )
    As you all know , the spread is far beyond that and may settle at 17 by gametime .

    • While the Minnesota trend is quite alarming and disturbing, I think the Vikings team now is much stronger than the Vikings teams of past, which are the basis for the trend. I think it's one of those times you simply pick the better team versus relying on a particular trend.

    Besides, I am more willing to put money on a strong Vikings team than backing a bottom-feeder team like the Lions and praying for a miracle cover.

    Go Vikings!

     
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2005
    Posts: 5456
    Posted: #60
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    It is tuesday . but if I had to pick these trend picks right now ...They would be :

    Favorites :
    Minnesota
    NY Jets
    New Orleans

    Underdogs :
    Seattle
    Kansas City
    New England

    Over/Under
    Atlanta @ Carolina Under

    these will be counted ..week 10
     
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2006
    Posts: 1194
    Posted: #61
    I love your analysis keep it coming. 
     
     
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 10
    Posted: #62

    RF, you're the man. Trend picks look good this week.

     

    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
    About Us
    Contact Us
    Careers
    Our Team
    Brand
    Testimonials
    Betting Guides
    Sportsbook Reviews
    Sports Betting News
    Podcasts
    Responsible Gaming
    Betting Sites
    Canada Betting Sites
    Canada Casinos
    Best Betting Apps
    Contests
    Streak Survivor
    King of Covers
    Office Pools
    The Covers community has
    810,221
    lifetime members worldwide
    Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
    Covers is the world
    leader in sports
    betting information.
    Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
    Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
    Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

    If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.