Trends & Things NFL week 9 2009-2010

Trend Picks LW :  2-2

Baltimore won
Tennessee won
Detroit lost
Buffalo lost

More trend notes for week 9 >>

Seattle-Detroit game ,
it should be noted that Detroit has an excellent record when they are DD underdogs going 12-4-1 ATS
The Lions are 8-2 ATS after scoring 10 points or less in their previous game.

Seattle is eliminated from the list .

The trends I posted for the Arizona-Chicago game did not include this trend I saw :
Arizona is 2-11 ATS on the road after a SU loss vs. a non-divisional opponent

Arizona is eliminated from the list .

Carolina-New Orleans
Road team has dominated  in this series going 15-2 ATS + Carolina has covered 8 straight .
However ,
The Panthers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
- Carolina is 0-7 ATS before a matchup with Atlanta.
New Orleans is 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games.
- The Saints are 5-0-1 ATS after a matchup with the Falcons.

Carolina is eliminated from the list

Sure Trend Picks week 8 :

New England (  Favored team off  a bye )
Pittsburgh ( Favored team off a bye )
Green Bay ( Reason bellow )
Green Bay ( adding that GB is 12-2 ATS vs an opp, coming off a bye week , GB has bouncec back well after an ATS loss ( unlike TB ) GB has an excellent ATS record on the road , and finally TB has not covered in 12 out of the last 13 games on grass.
( TB 1-12 ATS on grass )

Wash-Atl UNDER
reinforced by : The Under has gone 12-2 in Atlanta's 14 non-divisional encounters. Also as posted above :
Under is 12-1 in Falcons week 9 games

Houston-Indi  Over
Reason : 8 consecutive overs have resulted when Indi & Houston meet

Trend Blitz :

1 ) New England ( on bye trend )
2 ) Kansas City
3 ) Miami-New England Under
4 ) Green Bay
5 ) Washington-Atlanta Under
6 ) Arizona ....................eliminated
7 ) Houston-Indi  OVER
8 ) Carolina ...................eliminated
9 ) Seattle ......................eliminated
10 ) Seattle-Detroit  OVER
11 ) Tennessee-SF Under
12 ) Philadelphia-Dallas  Under .....eliminated
13 ) Pittsburgh ( on bye trend )

# 12 Phil-Dallas Under ......................eliminated
Philadelphia has produced 7 overs and 1 under in their last eight games.
The Cowboys have produced 8 overs and 2 unders in the first of back-to-back road games.
adding to the DallasPhil matchup >>>
Dallas is 2-10 ATS as a road underdog in November vs. an opponent coming off a SU win.
The Eagles are 11-1 ATS after a matchup with the Giants.
though > The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games hosting divisional opponents.

New list :

 1 ) New England ( on bye trend )
2) Pittsburgh ( on bye trend ) 
3 ) Green Bay 

4 ) Kansas City

5 ) Miami-New England Under
6) Washington-Atlanta Under 
7) Houston-Indi  OVER
8 ) Seattle-Detroit  OVER
9 ) Tennessee-SF Under 

Any significant trends that come to mind to eliminate some of the above ..,please post .

Ravens 10-2 ATS as favorites

Bengals 6-0 ATS as underdogs
adding : The Bengals are 9-1 ATS before a matchup with the Steelers.

Ravens have been quite good at covering the spread when favored , but the Bengals are perfect for the last 6 as dogs , coming off a bye , and have a great record before playing Pittsburgh .

simply amazing! 

Thank you Roberto!~

Final list :

 1 ) New England ( on bye trend )
2) Pittsburgh ( on bye trend ) 
3 ) Green Bay 

4 ) Kansas City

5 ) Miami-New England Under
6) Washington-Atlanta Under 
7) Houston-Indi  OVER
8 ) Seattle-Detroit  OVER
9 ) Tennessee-SF Under 

Alright ,
The focus is always on favored teams off a bye ...
as long as the trend keeps hitting at over 70 % ...it will be ...!
That would be New England and Pittsburgh
Let's see how picking a few totals works out ...
and I put in one Underdog on  the list >>>

Looking for 6-3 , 5-4 would be acceptable ....
Anything less ..and it's back to the drawing board ...

Roberto,

Great effort on accumualting data on trends, but having myself worked on this stuff for years, I have come to only one conclusion.

Once a trend is discovered, it ceases to exist.

It is only natural to want to discover the holy grail of trends that will lead you to riches, but it is all about putting history in perspective and nothing about the future, since there is always a trend to prove or disprove a wager. Are some trends more important than others, only in hindsight. And here's the kicker. Trend theory is based on the assumption that if a trend is 9-1, this makes it more likely to go to 10-1 and not 9-2. But what if the forces of nature are always trying to move back to 50-50%. Aren't the oddsmakers always setting the lines so that over a large course of time the favorites, underdogs, overs, and unders are very close to 50-50. Why would other trends be different?

Looking for trends is an obession, and I wish you the best of luck. Hell, you might be able to perdict NFL games from tea leaves, as long as you are good at reading tea leaves.

Not trying to rain on your parade, interested in your theories. BOL

Goff

Looking for trends is an obession, and I wish you the best of luck. Hell, you might be able to perdict NFL games from tea leaves, as long as you are good at reading tea leaves.

Not trying to rain on your parade, interested in your theories. BOL

No, I don't think you rained on his parade, it was more like a Tsunami!

Results for  week 9 Trend Blitz : 8-5 ...not bad

I will try to do one for week 10 ...but working on a short week ..

This was the abbreviated list from week 9 :>>> 4-5

Trends list for week 9 :

Favorites >>>

1 ) New England ( on bye trend ) Lost
2) Pittsburgh ( on bye trend ) Won
3 ) Green Bay Lost

 Underdogs >>>

4 ) Kansas City Won

Totals >>>

5 ) Miami-New England Under ...Won
6) Washington-Atlanta Under ...Lost
7) Houston-Indi  OVER... Lost
8 ) Seattle-Detroit  OVER ...Won
9 ) Tennessee-SF Under ...Lost

Bottom Line : I will be working on a strategy for totals for the upcoming year as very little preparation is going towards them and netting bellow avearge results thus far .
Totals are going to be shelled as selections , though I will continue to pick them as I look for what works ...

Week 10
NY Jets are favored and coming off a bye .
Minnesota Vikings are favored and coming off a bye .

Also >>
11/15/09 - (215) JACKSONVILLE at (216) NY JETS

NY JETS are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their L7 post-bye week games.
NY JETS are 12-1 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since '97.
Play on: NY JETS & UNDER

11/15/09 - (223) DETROIT at (224) MINNESOTA

11/15/09 - (231) KANSAS CITY at (232) OAKLAND

FAVORITES are on a 10-1 ATS run in OAKLAND post-bye week games.
This is an interesting scenario in that we have Oakland , favored off a bye week , and in the last 11 series in which Oakland has been a part of coming off a bye week , the Favored team has covered 10 out of 11 supporting the play on the Raiders .
Despite this , Oakland is favored by the minimum margin leaving the possibility that they will not be favored by gametime , and Oakland has not covered in 6 straight post-bye week games .
Now, the Raiders probably have not been favored much on the last 11 years coming out of their byes !

If anyone wants to help me out , go to scoreboard here at covers and check for me for the last 3 years ( or do at least 2008 to start )
how many times favorites of 3 points or less have covered coming out of the bye .
Let's see how far that stat deviates from the over 70 % that we know applies to all favorites , regardless of the spreads ..coming out of their byes .
Much appreciated .

11/16/09 - (243) BALTIMORE at (244) CLEVELAND