Trendcatcher AI Plays

A rare pick for a tiny under for  the AI model... hmmm

1 Pick:
- Javonte Williams (DAL) - Receiving Yards U13.5 (Predicted: 7.9, Edge: 8.0%)

Here is Week 11 results. Full transparency - we found a bug in the database CSV. Two of the losses would've been winners and two would've not have been selected, if the bug had not been present.

 HITS (14/21 = 66.7%)
1. Matthew Stafford (LAR) - Rush Yds U0.5 (0 yards)
2. Brock Wright (DET) - Rec U2.5 (2 rec)
3. Jaylin Lane (WSH) - Rec U2.5 (1 rec)
4. Kareem Hunt (KC) - Rec U1.5 (1 rec)
5. AJ Barner (SEA) - Rec U2.5 (2 rec)
6. Jake Ferguson (DAL) - Rec U4.5 (4 rec)
7. Kimani Vidal (LAC) - Rec U2.5 (2 rec)
8. Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX) - Rec U2.5 (0 rec)
9. Dawson Knox (BUF) - Rec U2.5 (1 rec)
10. Mark Andrews (BAL) - Rec U3.5 (1 rec)
11. Javonte Williams (DAL) - Rec U2.5 (0 rec)
12. Terrance Ferguson (LAR) - Rec U1.5 (0 rec )
13. David Montgomery (DET) - Rec U1.5 (1 rec)
14. Javonte Williams (DAL) - Rec Yds U13.5 (0 yds)

MISSES (7/21 = 33.3%)
3. Tyler Lockett (LV) - Rec U2.5 (3 rec)
5. Greg Dortch (ARI) - Rec U3.5 (6 rec)
8. Darnell Mooney (ATL) - Rec U2.5 (3 rec)
9. Sam Darnold (SEA) - Rush Yds U3.5 (11 yards)
11. Zach Charbonnet (SEA) - Rec U1.5 (2 rec)
13. Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) - Rec U2.5 (4 rec)
18. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - Rec U1.5 (3 rec)

FINAL RESULTS: 14/21 = 66.7% HIT RATE

We are getting ready for week 12 and updated website coming. Keep Trendcatcher.org on your radar.

uhh what about the prop juice

@rosswin97

 Hello, if you go back in the thread, I posted the juice on each play. The API pulls in 6 different books. As you know from being a veteran they could be better or worse depending on timing and access to each book. We spoke about posting all books for each bet, but it just gets cluttered. You're 100% correct, juice on props can make a good w/l record still negative units at the end of the week. 

Interesting got that classic 67% winrate on both spreads and props thats hard to break out of to do better consistently with volume

@NinjaNight

 You are correct, it's unbelievably hard to produce a consistent +70% win rate. As another member mentioned prop juice. We are working on refining the current model for props and at the moment 67% on full game is profitable but we will be training that model with more stats. It would've been 75% if we would've posted the fourth pick which was baltimore. It only has the 2025 season data at the moment. The prop ML has 6 years of stats. We will keep working on it. Thanks for checking us out. 

@AddThaHook

 Keep the site updated! Love what you guys are doing and congratulations on your success. If it continues the sky is the limit…but stay on top of your site! I’d much rather look at your picks and stats on the website than here on covers. But great job and thanks for continuing to keep us updated. 

@brn2loslive2win

 I appreciate the kinds words and the feedback. I am hopeful that we will be rolling out an updated site this week that will have an AI analyst tool that users can use to generate a report on players, games, matchups, and raw stats. We have been experimenting with a lot of stuff lately. Stay tuned!

@AddThaHook

 Site is down. Really excited about the upgrades that are coming.  My partner is 

Trendcatcher.org

@brn2loslive2win

1. Jake Ferguson UNDER 4.5 receptions @ -109 (DraftKings) - 8.89% edge
2. Tyrod Taylor UNDER 186.5 passing yards @ -110 (WilliamHill) - 8.79% edge
3. Tez Johnson UNDER 2.5 receptions @ +104 (DraftKings) - 8.00% edge
4. Rico Dowdle UNDER 2.5 receptions @ +133 (DraftKings) - 8.00% edge
5. Jaylen Warren UNDER 2.5 receptions @ -149 (DraftKings) - 8.00% edge
6. Caleb Williams UNDER 222.5 passing yards - 7.55% edge
7. T.J. Hockenson UNDER 24.5 receiving yards @ -109 (DraftKings) - 7.35% edge
8. Tyler Shough UNDER 202.5 passing yards @ -113 (DraftKings) - 7.31% edge
9. Alvin Kamara UNDER 14.5 receiving yards @ -110 (BetMGM) - 6.90% edge
10. Stefon Diggs UNDER 60.5 receiving yards @ -113 (DraftKings) - 6.45% edge
11. Geno Smith UNDER 198.5 passing yards - 5.99% edge
12. Matthew Stafford UNDER 256.5 passing yards @ -110 (Bovada) - 5.46% edge
13. Wan'Dale Robinson UNDER 53.5 receiving yards @ -110 (DraftKings) - 5.23% edge

? HIGH-EDGE OVERS ONLY (8%+) (4 picks)

14. Tez Johnson OVER 33.5 receiving yards @ -111 (DraftKings) - 8.66% edge
15. Dallas Goedert OVER 3.5 receptions @ -140 (BetMGM) - 8.57% edge
16. Mack Hollins OVER 2.5 receptions @ +145 (WilliamHill) - 8.00% edge
17. Daniel Jones OVER 243.5 passing yards @ -112 (DraftKings) - 7.76% edge

@AddThaHook

 My man 

@brn2loslive2win

 This week will be interesting. We tweaked the code a little and changed the parameters around the confidence system. The back testing performed better than all of the previous models. I'm hoping for a high ROI. I'm playing all picks this week. 

### ?? TOP PLAYS

1. **Baltimore Ravens -13.5** vs NYJ @ -112 (DK)
2. **Detroit Lions -13.5** vs NYG @ -105 (DK)
3. **Seattle Seahawks -12.5** @ TEN @ -112 (DK)
4. **Los Angeles Rams -7.0** vs TB @ -108 (DK)
5. **San Francisco 49ers -7.5** vs CAR @ -105 (DK)

A lot of chalk.............GOOD LUCK

@jowchoo

 Agreed. The full game picks are scary, because of the points to be laid. Please remember we are still building and finding bugs. It actually has the Rams game with the highest confidence. 

 I'm loving the prop bets though. Will play them all, well all of the unders. 

@AddThaHook

 The sides are terrifying but some of the props look like gold. I’ll pick and choose as usual as some of them are too risky for my taste. Taking Diggs under receiving yards vs the worst defense we’ve seen in decades is a little whacky, but if it hits I’ll be the first one to come back and sing your praises. Looking forward to seeing the updates to the site. Thanks for sharing and good luck

@brn2loslive2win

 Too add to that, Diggs just had his first child. He could have a heighten renewed emotion for the game! Run it lol!

@AddThaHook

 I’d like to run some ideas by you if you’re interested and see if there’s potential to work my very basic logic into a system like yours. Here’s an example of a play I like this weekend-

Caleb Williams interception +106

Although Caleb isn’t prone to throwing interceptions, he’s gone 3 games in a row without one. This is a difficult feat for even the elite QBs in the NFL. This Sunday they face the Steelers who are top 10 (#6) in the league at causing interceptions with 9 total on the year. At +106 I’d like to believe there’s an edge here. I’ve been doing well with interception bets this season and I’m interested to know what you computer nerds LOL can do with interception props. 

Good idea. I would think qb pressures and qb hits would shine some light on interception potentials. These metrics are available using SDQL protocols.

Line of scrimmage dominance is an important key imo to interception rates and ats outcomes.........................good luck

@brn2loslive2win

@jowchoo

 Great ideas. I believe we already have these stats parsed in our database. I will write a script this week and back test a few years to see if we can find an edge. 

Looks like receptions under is going to be the bread and butter with this model. Very disappointed so far with passing yards. Full games was also a letdown. Still a few left. 

@AddThaHook

 As they say in the restaurant business, the easiest way to fail is by having too diverse of a menu. Find what you’re good at and focus on being very good at it.