Took a stand with a piece of shit last week and I'll take another this week...

Don't be swayed by the covers consensus, there will be plenty of pitt and kc support on here, like your indy side.

Don't sweat the beantownforlife name, I will bet against them any day I think they won't cover, had Dallas when pats got the lucky win vs them.

  +9.5 to +10.5 spreads are now 7-0 ATS this season after the Jags win.    

Going to try something different this week to try get going:

3 team 10 point teaser: Pittsburgh +13/Seattle +13/NY Giants pk

I talked about Pittsburgh earlier, this is a very big game for them and I'm not sold on the Pats. This game will probably be a battle and whoever scores last wins.

Cincinnati has won 3 games by 10 points this year and in all three needed late TD's (2 of which was defensive scores) to turn 3 point wins into 10 point wins. the Bengals are a nice story but sooner or later I think they come back to earth. Granted Seattle is bad (is it just me or does the league really suck this year?) but they always play tough at home. Not a good spot for the Bengals either traveling up there off a bye. Cincy was rolling before the bye, this could be a situation where the bye screws up their momentum. Seahawks get Lynch back for sure and Tavaris Jackson, Max Unger, and Zach Miller have resumed practicing and should play. +13 is plenty of points here.

The Giants seem to always be tooth and nail to win these games they are big favs in. But I think losing in the same situation to Seattle a couple weeks ago will be too fresh on their minds and they will be determined not to let it happen again. Miami is a mess. They had a win by the balls last week and miraculously coughed it up. The front office has reportedly called John Gruden and Bill Cowher and Sparano is all but done. They should give him a break and can him now instead of letting him embarrass himself the rest of the year and screw any potential job oppotunities down the line.


Washington +6

Talked about this earlier. I don't think there is much difference between these two teams except the Skins actually have a defense. Last week was the first time all year they allowed more than 21 points and they played 3 Top 11 offenses in the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles. But if you look at the game last week they held Carolina to 9 in the first half but in the second half Cam Newton was making some unbelievable throws that really were impossible to defend. Everyone is aware of the Skins injuries but like I mentioned I don't think the Hightower injury is much, and neither is Santana Moss who stinks, they are better off playing a younger kid. Fletcher is a concern as is Trent Williams.

Buffalo has injuries too. Merriman was placed on IR today, their Pro Bowl NT has already been ruled out, and their LT is out and will be replaced by the LG making his first start at tackle against a Washington defense that leads the league in sacks. Let's not pretend one team comes in limping while the other is healthy, both teams have issues.

Another note is this game is being played in Toronto and the stadium is a dump. The crowds have been awful in all the Toronto games and there aren't too many Bills fans. There were more Dolphins, Jets, and Bears fans there the last three years. This is not anywhere near a home game for the Bills and they know it. Good read on the situation here, sounds like they aren't too happy. Buffalo has played 3 home games this year and they were all wild, entertaining wins in front of a raucous crowd. This "home" game in a dead atmosphere is going to seem like a massive disappointment compared to the earlier 3.


Somehow I will find my way onto the Rams again this week and will a little line movement will get involved in DAL/PHI as well.

GL

I like the Eagles a fair bit. I'll be on them at 3 and probably 3.5 at good juice. Nice spot for them here to get their first win of the year at home off of a bye and against a Dallas team that got fat off beating the Rams. Philly has a very deep defensive line and I look for them to have some jump and get to Romo and force him into mistakes. Not sold on DeMarco Murray at all. The Cowboys really struggled running before last week and Murray had not had a carry over 8 yards or had more than 3.5 yards per rush in a game before last week, but the Rams will make you look like a god.

I have nothing on SD/KC. Pass for me.

GL buddy.

Wouldn't buying low on San Diego be next week when they will be home dogs in a regular season game for the first time since 2007?

Not if you had your pants down and got caught holding a Rams +10.5 ticket last week.

great stuff 

What i'm skeptical about making a play on the Colts is.....The talk about maybe drafting another QB....Possibly trying to get Luck..With that being said....Will Painter play to his potential that he is capable of?

 

This week is buying low, KC has been playing well and just won 28 0, Cassel had some pretty bad stats in that game but 28 nothing looks pretty bad, 2 def tds for kc to. That a due to the fact that SD barely beat KC 20-17 few weeks earlier have major influence on this game and line, I see a lot of people saying how KC is a live dog this week. SD was a pretty popular play on covers last week, saying how much talent they have and how the Jets don't look great so this is the week where the line is shorter than its supposed to be, in the past few years this line was SD - 4 -5.5 -6 and -6 so 3.5 is a little short and it has to do with the play of SD and public perception,  GB is the raining sb champs and undefeated and at times looks like they don't take the games serious and when they need to they can score or stop a team at will, they deserve to be fav on the road vs all teams.

I have a bet on Dallas to win sb at 50 to 1, and I do think that Dallas is the only team in the NFC that can beat GB at GB in a playoff game.

Best team in the AFC may very well be San Diego and next week will be a good spot to take them as well.  Don't like the pats with that d and don't think baltimore will last, I don't like the fact they lost the tenn and jag games, they are entitled to bad games but the championship teams somehow find a way to win the clunkers.  San Diego vs Dallas, I like it, Dallas wins.

I personally every week joke with my buddies and say "just dont think, bet against STL & IND and u win or 1-1 at worst" ... those 2 teams are horrid and the colts have simply mailed it in. 

If you guys take the Colts , no offense ,  you deserve your fate when they lose.  Stop CHASING this colt team, they suck plain & simple and have NO FIGHT in them.  Anyone watch the Saints game? Anyone look in the eyes of the colts? They didnt even wanna be on the field, they have GIVEN UP !

 

Rams are just flat out TERRIBLEEEEEE and will remain terrible.  Until Vegas starts making the spreads 17-20 theres no reason to not go against this team every week, they are worthless !! No offense what so ever !!!

 

Pitt vs NE ... tough game, squares will be on NE and sharps on PIT, but this game could go honest... if the spread was BETTER, meaning PIT -3 , i would then come in on PIT hard... but I dont like the line, PIT as a home dog will also apeal to some squares as well so Im gonna pass on that game, spread isnt the best spread IMO.

 

 

beantownforlife - You make a lot of sense in your last three posts. You are probably right about the Chargers game. I just can't back these guys until they get it going. I thought I'd seen them screw up in every way possible until I caught the last two minutes of last week....good lord what the fuck were they doing? Maybe off a loss against a divisional team that is "looking" good and who they'd be tied with if they lose this game wakes them up. It's baffling a team with this many weapons at receiver and can run the ball is bottom 5 in red zone offense, but then again that's what bad coaching and piss poor execution gets you. The Chiefs are awful. I'm not buying what they are selling. Their 3 game win streak has come against the McNabb led Vikings, the Painter led Colts, and the Kyle Bollar/Carson Palmer disaster, not to mention Oakland's best player went out in the 1st quarter. KC has one playmaker and if the Chargers come to play (and isn't that a HUGE IF) I don't see Cassel keeping up.

San Diego/Dallas looks like a nice matchup on paper but both of those teams are mirror images of each other. They are both loaded with talent but are prone to major mental mistakes and both have box head coaches who will cost their teams in the playoffs against better coaches with some balls. It will take a lot for those teams not to fuck up in the playoffs.

I wouldn't say the Colts have no fight in them they fought hard for the previous 4 games before last week only to end up with some tough losses. It just seems like it all caught up with them last week against a far superior team who had their foot on the gas pedal from the opening kickoff. These guys have had their hearts and characters questioned by everyone after last week's debacle. They may be 0-7 but I expect them to respond, but then again I am 11-20 ATS this year so what do I know.

I don't like the spot for the Saints. They put way too much effort into last week. They are no doubt taking the Rams lightly especially with a big game on deck. If the Rams can stay with the running game and not turn it over they can hang around.

When people say "So and so was pretty popular on Covers last week..." I think this is a mistake.

To me, it seems the action is 50/50 for most games. Equal threads on both sides.

Not sure I will be around to post the actual lines I am going to have but going with these as well:


St. Louis +....???

Talked about it earlier. Not much else to say, no one will like this play and will think I am 11-20 for a reason thinking the Rams have a chance to cover like an idiot.


Philadelphia -....???

This is a big game for both teams but much more important for Philadelphia. If they lose here they are 2-5 and are done. I like the fact they got the win before the bye week it will give them a lot of confidence going forward as opposed to what would have been a disaster had they lost. We all know Reid is 12-0 off a bye, not sure what it means but it's a nice stat to have.

I talked about Philadelphia's defensive line earlier and think they will have success. They are very deep and have a lot of sacks. At home with fresh legs and a wild crowd I think they have a clear advantage over the Dallas O-line. They should force Romo into some quick throws and that may not be good against some very good Philly corners. Romo can't just throw to Witten all day. I'm also not sold on Murray like I mentioned earlier. Dallas had run for jack before facing the shit Rams last week. Over the last 4+ years there have been 12 rushers who played a game after running for 200+ and only 5 have broken 80 yards. Philly had problems with their linebackers earlier but they looked very good against Washington after Casey Matthews was benched. I was involved in 4 Eagles games earlier in the year and I have to say Casey Matthews was absolutely BRUTAL.

I think Philly has a nice matchup on the other side of the ball too. Yes Dallas has a tough defense but personally I am not sold on their secondary. That is significant here because Vick is a mobile QB who can elude rushers and neutralize that pass rush and buy some extra time. The Cowboys have faced 6 QB's so far that are as mobile as a bag of sand. Their secondary was masked a bit in those games by the pass rush getting home, but I like Vick to buy time here and attack that secondary. Philly also has another great counter for the rush in LeSean McCoy. Dumping screens to him is a great way to keep Ware and company at bay. Contrary to popular belief Philadelphia's offensive line has been very good this year. Their run blocking has been off the charts and Vick has only been sacked 9 times this year which is the 2nd fewest in the league (including just 2 in the last two games).


GL this week.

*****Vick has only been sacked 9 times this year which is the 3rd fewest in the league (including just 2 in the last two games).

I may be crazy but I think there are still a couple of weeks left to buy on the Eagles. A nice 4-7 point win this week sets up another cheap line of less than a TD next week when they spank the Bears at home on MNF.

Yeah I don't get this line of thinking. Sharp, square, public, hip....I mean I just don't care and am not sure why people get caught up in it. I've tried to look for the reasons why a game might be called "sharp" or "square" instead of just labeling it that way, and no it is NOT because the oddsmakers are some type of all knowing god. But I've ranted on that at least a couple of times a year for the last few years, don't feel like getting into it again.

Upset may be the wrong word...more focus is the correct word. IMHO...Saints offense are top 3 in NFL (GB, NE, Saints) and they are going to play indoor? It's like playing at home for them while being on the road. The crowd will not even be a factor when they get up by 2-3 tds...I think the Saints roll here.

 

Not to mentioned a bad Ravens road team destroyed them 37-7 in their last home outing. There's nothing that tells me why the Saints shouldn't win by 21pts.

The Ravens were blown out the week before that. This isn't even close to the same situation.

Ravens have been dog shit on the road..I am not going to sugar coated. That's why backing them on MNF wasn't even an option, but I know the Ravens' D always come to play regardless if they are at home or on the road. The point I am making is...for a Ravens offense - which is terrible on the road to score 37 on the Rams...that tells me Raven's offense isn't that great on the road...but how bad the Rams are as a whole (defense/Offense). Wait til the Rams get a whole of this Saints offense/defense inside a dome where the Saints feels right at home.....that's what I am seeing here. No rigged factor, no fishy line, etc....just straight up Saints domination. Ppl might see it differently since the Saints last road game vs. Tampa didn't fare to well, nor did they cover the previous road game at Carolina. That's why imho...it's a great spot to take the Saints again.

Dallas is very good vs the run, I think they are #1 and Asante Samuel thing is a big problem imo.  The team chemistry is pretty bad and I don't think a bye week can solve that major problem.