Posted:
#151
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Part 2 Conversely, I look at the last game the Seahawks played (home to Carolina) They lost by 6 pts. But thdifference in the game was a BIG LUCKY BREAK for Carolina when they got an early turnover at Seattle's 13. Touchdown. That break was the difference. That and Seattle's star running back, Kenneth Walker was OUT.Walker is back tonight!!Looking at Seahawks recent weeks, just 1 win and 3 losses.They lost by 5 to Tampa.Lost in overtime to Raiders.Beat the struggling Rams on the road.And the loss to Carolina by 6, decided only by a lucky TO at the 13.Leads me to believe Seahawks are due for a good game. Finally. Like they did in the 4 game stretch before the recent 4 game stretch! Maybe not win, but definitely an improved performance over the past 4 weeks. To me, the mediocre 49er road record, combined now with a backup QB, who is playing hurt which may affect throws, on a short week with no practice, down his best WR, now overdue for a bad game while the Seahawks are due for a good game, makes this game a virtual tossup.SanFrancisco, despite all the injuries, are still the better team overall. But on the road they have not proven to be anywhere near as dominant as at home. The stats bear that out. And finally there is this intangible: Seahawks will be fighting not only for their playoff lives, but if they beat 49ers, they even have a shot to win the division, as weird as that might seem. But they desperately need a win tonight, and they know it, because they travel to KC next week for a sure loss. If they want the division, it absolutely must start tonight. Failure tonight is likely to mean they won't even make the playoffs. I am certain they all know this too! My capping says Seattle is likely to keep this very close and may even win outright.
Part 2 Conversely, I look at the last game the Seahawks played (home to Carolina) They lost by 6 pts. But thdifference in the game was a BIG LUCKY BREAK for Carolina when they got an early turnover at Seattle's 13. Touchdown. That break was the difference. That and Seattle's star running back, Kenneth Walker was OUT.Walker is back tonight!!Looking at Seahawks recent weeks, just 1 win and 3 losses.They lost by 5 to Tampa.Lost in overtime to Raiders.Beat the struggling Rams on the road.And the loss to Carolina by 6, decided only by a lucky TO at the 13.Leads me to believe Seahawks are due for a good game. Finally. Like they did in the 4 game stretch before the recent 4 game stretch! Maybe not win, but definitely an improved performance over the past 4 weeks. To me, the mediocre 49er road record, combined now with a backup QB, who is playing hurt which may affect throws, on a short week with no practice, down his best WR, now overdue for a bad game while the Seahawks are due for a good game, makes this game a virtual tossup.SanFrancisco, despite all the injuries, are still the better team overall. But on the road they have not proven to be anywhere near as dominant as at home. The stats bear that out. And finally there is this intangible: Seahawks will be fighting not only for their playoff lives, but if they beat 49ers, they even have a shot to win the division, as weird as that might seem. But they desperately need a win tonight, and they know it, because they travel to KC next week for a sure loss. If they want the division, it absolutely must start tonight. Failure tonight is likely to mean they won't even make the playoffs. I am certain they all know this too! My capping says Seattle is likely to keep this very close and may even win outright.
Seahawks +7.5 -210 (buying pts for a cushion)
**All that said, remember my two caveats, especially the one where I almost always LOSE when I do a writeup supporting my pick.
As noted earlier, in anticipation of near certain "regression" I previously reduced my betting size down to 75% two weekends ago and down further to 66% this past weekend, where it shall remain for this week 15.
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