Posted:
#126
Good luck. Stay hot! 
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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets
Posted:
#127
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Was considering the Chargers as home dogs earlier but ... LOS ANGELES -- The Chargers will be without several key players on defense when they face the Dolphins on "Sunday Night Football." Safety Derwin James Jr., defensive lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day and cornerback Bryce Callahan will be out because of injuries, a source told ESPN.Right tackle Trey Pipkins III, listed as doubtful, also is expected to be out as he continues to nurse a knee injury that sidelined him last Sunday. James leads the Chargers with 106 tackles
Was considering the Chargers as home dogs earlier but ... LOS ANGELES -- The Chargers will be without several key players on defense when they face the Dolphins on "Sunday Night Football." Safety Derwin James Jr., defensive lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day and cornerback Bryce Callahan will be out because of injuries, a source told ESPN.Right tackle Trey Pipkins III, listed as doubtful, also is expected to be out as he continues to nurse a knee injury that sidelined him last Sunday. James leads the Chargers with 106 tackles
The line is begging bettors to take the home dogs there. Something smells fishy
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Posted:
#128
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz: Gl buddy ..you are spot on about regression Thank you. I suppose there are mixed views on how best to deal with it but the reality about regression never changes when on a super hot streak, like 25 - 5. There's real cause for concern. In retrospect I might prefer to just go maybe 6 - 4 every week and avoid a crippling "market correction" from a hot streak. The other thing is it may not be a disaster for one given week, but rather like maybe a couple net losses for each of the next few weeks, working out to be about the same net regression. But I do think that scaling back my wager size and toughing it out is worth a try. So my point isn't lost, I point all this out so that forum members are alerted than when they see my records (above) it's not a good time now to jump on any pics I post!
Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz: Gl buddy ..you are spot on about regression Thank you. I suppose there are mixed views on how best to deal with it but the reality about regression never changes when on a super hot streak, like 25 - 5. There's real cause for concern. In retrospect I might prefer to just go maybe 6 - 4 every week and avoid a crippling "market correction" from a hot streak. The other thing is it may not be a disaster for one given week, but rather like maybe a couple net losses for each of the next few weeks, working out to be about the same net regression. But I do think that scaling back my wager size and toughing it out is worth a try. So my point isn't lost, I point all this out so that forum members are alerted than when they see my records (above) it's not a good time now to jump on any pics I post!
Now that the games are already started, this won't count, but the plays I would have normally bet/posted were going to be Pitts su, Tenn su, and Giants +7.5 I backed off anticipating the regression
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Posted:
#130
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Now that the games are already started, this won't count, but the plays I would have normally bet/posted were going to be Pitts su, Tenn su, and Giants +7.5 I backed off anticipating the regression
There ya go. It's probable you would have lost all three of those if you would bet and post them
Good call, Fubah2 
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Posted:
#134
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: WARNING! I am on a 25 - 5 HOT STREAK. That's actually BAD NEWS for future bets My Dec 11 HIGH RISK bets:W BENGALS -238 *BBW BILLS -2.5-342 *BB added HIGH RISK bets: 49ers - 180 Seahawks -185
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: WARNING! I am on a 25 - 5 HOT STREAK. That's actually BAD NEWS for future bets My Dec 11 HIGH RISK bets:W BENGALS -238 *BBW BILLS -2.5-342 *BB added HIGH RISK bets: 49ers - 180 Seahawks -185
Looks like I will split these last two and go 3 - 1 today
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Posted:
#136
Quote Originally Posted by SourSausage:
I am eyeing up Mia TT o29.5 but hot damn, that is a BIG number. Not sure if or what I am playing yet
I am eyeing up Mia TT o29.5 but hot damn, that is a BIG number. Not sure if or what I am playing yet
Can u play that one on LIVE Action bets? I will consider it myself (in-play live) but will watch the first couple series to see how that suspect Charger defense holds up and if Tua is going to have himself a good game. Otherwise it certainly has potential
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Posted:
#137
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
W 49ers - 180
Loss Seahawks -185
3 - 1 No play on Sunday night. Although I had a winning day, actually as far as my handicapping goes, there are those 3 picks I noted above after game start, which I normally would have bet/posted but I backed off from fear of the "regression" Glad I did, as all 3 would have been losses. So in terms of my capping results the "regression" is actually underway....
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Posted:
#141
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
My Dec 11 HIGH RISK bets:
My Dec 11 HIGH RISK bets:
= 3 - 1 ( 2 - 0 *Best Bets)
My first NFL bet this year was Oct. 10, 2022 (week 5)
Annually I prefer to sit out the first few weeks and observe
how the teams are performing before betting real money.
Week 05: 1 - 1 (1 - 0 *Best Bets)
Week 06: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 07: 4 - 3 (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 08: 7 - 2 (4 - 2 *Best Bets)
Week 09: 9 - 1 (5 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 10: 6 - 5* (5 - 4 *Best Bets) (heavy losses on juice)
Week 11: 7 - 3~ (5 - 3 *Best Bets)
Week 12: 9 - 1 (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 13: 9 - 1* (5 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 14: 3 - 1 (2 - 0 *Best Bets)
----------------------------------------
YTD: 56 - 19
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Posted:
#142
[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2:
My Dec 11 HIGH RISK bets: = 3 - 1 ( 2 - 0 *Best Bets)
[/Quote]
YTD: 56 - 19 includes 34 - 14 *Best Bets
YTD Breakdown:
38 - 13 FAVS overall
34 - 11 on Home Favs
4 - 2 on Away Favs
18 - 6 DOGS overall
15 - 4 on Home Dogs
3 - 2 on Away Dogs
Current HOT STREAK: 28 - 6 (4 weeks) but very unlikely to continue
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Posted:
#147
Quote Originally Posted by zircon:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: YTD: 56 - 19
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: YTD: 56 - 19
Thoughts for TNF?
Want a good fade opportunity?
Here ya go!
Two reasons:
One, I'm on a wild 25 - 5 HOT STREAK, and if you read my comments above you understand how I have reason to be very cautious with any bets due to serious concerns about "regression" (market correction if you prefer). I expected it would start to hit me last week and sure enough it did start, but the regression hasn't fulfilled its potential yet. More losses coming, I just don't know when or how many, but I am certainly overdue at this point.
Secondly, I *LOSE* my posted bets about 85% - 90% of the time whenever I do a writeup on a particular side.
I KID YOU NOT! 85% - 90% of the time! 
It's a fugkn curse! 
But there's that 10% - 15% of the time where the curse doesn't affect my bet and it wins. That could be tonight. Or not. Who knows.
But the odds are seriously against my pick.....which may be good news for YOU. Or not.
Coming....
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Posted:
#149
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by zircon: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: YTD: 56 - 19 Thoughts for TNF? Want a good fade opportunity?
Quote Originally Posted by zircon: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: YTD: 56 - 19 Thoughts for TNF? Want a good fade opportunity?
Here ya go! Two reasons:One, I'm on a wild 25 - 5 HOT STREAK, and if you read my comments above you understand how I have reason to be very cautious with any bets due to serious concerns about "regression" (market correction if you prefer). I expected it would start to hit me last week and sure enough it did start, but the regression hasn't fulfilled its potential yet. More losses coming, I just don't know when or how many, but I am certainly overdue at this point. Secondly, I *LOSE* my posted bets about 85% - 90% of the time whenever I do a writeup on a particular side. I KID YOU NOT! 85% - 90% of the time! It's a fugkn curse! But there's that 10% - 15% of the time where the curse doesn't affect my bet and it wins. That could be tonight. Or not. Who knows. But the odds are seriously against my pick.....which may be good news for YOU. Or not.Coming....
SF @Seattle; part 1 of 2...
What I am focussing on:
Niners are the better team, yes, but maybe not by as large a margin as many might think.
Consider: 49ers are an awesome 7 - 1 and +105 pt differential on home turf,
but losing 2 - 3 for +15 pt differential on the road!
That compares with Seahawks 3 - 3 and +9 pt differential at home!
This is crucial and worth restating, imo.....Niners are terrific at home, sure! Home field is great! But so far a losing record of 2 - 3 for only +15 net points over 5 "true" road games!!
And even that meagre +15 pt differential on the road was achieved with their starting QB whom they don't have now!
Purdy played well as a backup, yes!, but Garopolo is still the better QB and those road states were achieved with a better QB.
Add to this, Brock Purdy who was questionable with sore ribs, will play, but play hurt in an area that can affect passing. It could affect either his throwing and/or decisions to throw or not. Certainly one solid hit in his ribs could knock him OUT! Ultimately, Purdy may have a good game, this is uncertain, but make no mistake, he is not 100% like he was his first two appearances.
Add to this, they just lost arguably their top WR (Samuel) this past Sunday, who is frequently given the ball on rushing attempts too due to his speed. GONZO!
Add to this a defense which has been playing very well, yes!, but the injuries are mounting and they are overdue for a bad day. Covers lists the 49ers with 3 CB out, a DB out, and a CB questionable, just for the past 2 weeks. Givens is out on the D-Line and Armstead and Bosa will both play with injuries. Backup Ridgeway is out, and Hyder is now questionable. So only one truly healthy starter on the D-Line, and a secondary full of backups.
Then there is the niners 6 game winning streak - of which only one was a true road game. It's GREAT! And they have been playing all those home games very well! But therein lies the problem.....they are due for a bad game sooner or later. We all should intuitively understand this. It might seem more likely it will happen with a backup QB, playing hurt, on the road.
more ...
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Posted:
#150
Part 2
Conversely, I look at the last game the Seahawks played (home to Carolina) They lost by 6 pts. But thdifference in the game was a BIG LUCKY BREAK for Carolina when they got an early turnover at Seattle's 13. Touchdown. That break was the difference. That and Seattle's star running back, Kenneth Walker was OUT.
Walker is back tonight!!
Looking at Seahawks recent weeks, just 1 win and 3 losses.
They lost by 5 to Tampa.
Lost in overtime to Raiders.
Beat the struggling Rams on the road.
And the loss to Carolina by 6, decided only by a lucky TO at the 13.
Leads me to believe Seahawks are due for a good game. Finally. Like they did in the 4 game stretch before the recent 4 game stretch! Maybe not win, but definitely an improved performance over the past 4 weeks.
To me, the mediocre 49er road record, combined now with a backup QB, who is playing hurt which may affect throws, on a short week with no practice, down his best WR, now overdue for a bad game while the Seahawks are due for a good game, makes this game a virtual tossup.
SanFrancisco, despite all the injuries, are still the better team overall.
But on the road they have not proven to be anywhere near as dominant as at home. The stats bear that out.
And finally there is this intangible: Seahawks will be fighting not only for their playoff lives, but if they beat 49ers, they even have a shot to win the division, as weird as that might seem. But they desperately need a win tonight, and they know it, because they travel to KC next week for a sure loss. If they want the division, it absolutely must start tonight. Failure tonight is likely to mean they won't even make the playoffs. I am certain they all know this too!
My capping says Seattle is likely to keep this very close and may even win outright.
Seahawks +7.5 -210 (buying pts for a cushion)
**All that said, remember my two caveats, especially the one where I almost always LOSE when I do a writeup supporting my pick.
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